CN111080149B - Mixed calculation method for reliability of high-medium-low voltage integrated power distribution network - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a mixed calculation method for the reliability of a high-medium-low voltage integrated distribution network, which considers the mutual influence of high-medium-low voltage distribution networks and establishes a distribution network integrated model, wherein firstly, the reliability of the high-voltage distribution network is evaluated based on the quasi-sequential Monte Carlo simulation of a state transition sampling method to obtain the annual average fault frequency and the annual average power failure time of the high-voltage distribution network; secondly, obtaining the outgoing line outage rate and the restoration rate of a transformer substation connecting a high-voltage distribution network and a medium-voltage distribution network; finally, the outgoing line outage rate and the repair rate of the transformer substation are used as the input of the reliability calculation of the medium-low voltage distribution network, and the reliability index of the medium-low voltage distribution network is calculated by using a minimum path method; the invention comprehensively considers the mutual influence among the power distribution networks with high, medium and low voltage grades, improves the accuracy of the evaluation result, relates to the low-voltage distribution network topology for the evaluation of the power distribution network, and improves the calculation accuracy of the power supply reliability of low-voltage users.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a power distribution network reliability evaluation technology, in particular to a high, medium and low voltage integrated power distribution network reliability hybrid calculation method.
Background
The power distribution network is used as a medium for connecting the user and the high-voltage power grid, is connected with the user most closely, is also a link with the most sensitive perception of the user, and has guiding significance for planning and transforming the power distribution network by carrying out reliability evaluation calculation on the power distribution network. Distribution network reliability evaluation methods are mainly divided into two types, namely analytical methods and simulation methods. The mathematical model established by the analytical method is relatively accurate, the evaluation steps are clear, but the calculation is difficult when the network scale reaches a certain degree. In order to improve the calculation efficiency and the operation performance of the analytic method, a distribution network evaluation method taking the combination of blocking and hierarchical structures into consideration is provided by students. The simulation method is also called a Monte Carlo method, the sampling times of the simulation method are irrelevant to the system scale, the simulation method is suitable for reliability evaluation of a large-scale power distribution system, and a large number of scholars explore the simulation method. Huang Jiangning et al put forward a layered uniform sampling algorithm in the layered uniform sampling method in the reliability evaluation of the power system, thereby avoiding invalid sampling and realizing the high-efficiency evaluation of the reliability. Lo Engkai et al, in the application Difference analysis of sequential Monte Carlo method in Power System reliability assessment, performed comparative analysis on equal time interval sampling and component duration sampling in two common ways of sequential Monte Carlo simulation, and improved the calculation speed and accuracy of the equal time interval sampling method by using correction coefficients.
However, the reliability evaluation of the power distribution network at the present stage still has the following defects: firstly, in the traditional power distribution network reliability evaluation, a power distribution network with a certain voltage class is usually considered independently without considering the network on the upper layer or the network on the lower layer, so that the evaluation result is inaccurate; and secondly, the evaluation of the power distribution network does not relate to the low-voltage distribution network topology, and the power supply reliability of a low-voltage user cannot be accurately calculated. Therefore, the evaluation of the distribution network should take the influence of the upper high-voltage network into account and analyze the different main connection modes of the connected substations.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the technical problems, the invention provides a high-medium-low voltage integrated distribution network model, which is characterized in that the reliability index of an upper-layer high-voltage network obtained through quasi-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used as the input of the integrated model, the obtained time sequence index is used for calculating the outgoing line outage probability of the transformer substation under different transformer substation main wiring modes, finally, the influence of the upper-layer high-voltage distribution network is considered in the reliability calculation of the lower-layer medium-voltage and low-voltage distribution networks, and the reliability of the low-voltage distribution network under different low-voltage load distribution modes is analyzed by adopting an analytical method.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the technical scheme that: a mixed calculation method for the reliability of a high-medium-low voltage integrated power distribution network comprises the following steps:
s1, evaluating the reliability of the high-voltage distribution network based on the quasi-sequential Monte Carlo simulation of the state transition sampling method to obtain the annual average failure times and annual average power failure time of the high-voltage distribution network;
s2, obtaining the outage rate and the restoration rate of the outgoing lines of the transformer substation connecting the high-voltage distribution network and the medium-voltage distribution network;
and S3, taking the outage rate and the repair rate of the outgoing lines of the transformer substation as the input of the reliability calculation of the medium-low voltage distribution network, and calculating the reliability index of the medium-low voltage distribution network by using a minimum path method.
Preferably, the reliability index includes an average annual fault frequency, an average annual outage time and an average annual outage amount.
Preferably, the step S1 includes:
s11, sampling the system state according to the element failure probability, if the extracted sample is in an invalid state, deleting the state and sampling again;
s12, if the extracted system state is an effective load shedding state, taking the load shedding state as a center, carrying out forward and backward simulation according to the state transition probability, and finally obtaining a system state sequence consisting of all the load shedding states;
and S13, calculating the average annual fault frequency, the average annual power failure time and the average annual power loss of the high-voltage distribution network by using a reliability index calculation formula of a quasi-sequential algorithm.
Preferably, after the sampling of the system state is completed, the user sensitivity division is performed on the evaluated network topology, and a direct current optimal load reduction model is adopted during load reduction.
Preferably, the calculation formula of the average annual fault frequency and the average annual outage time of the high-voltage distribution network is as follows:
wherein λ is LOLP Is the annual mean failure number, lambda LOLF The average annual outage time, N is the number of failure states obtained by sampling, N is the total number of states extracted by the quasi-sequential algorithm, D is the average duration of a certain state, and M is the average annual outage time i Is a load shedding sequence in a failure state, xi is a sample set of the ith fault state, X f For sampling the resulting sample set of fault conditions, f lolf And the test function is a corresponding reliability index.
Preferably, the step S2 includes:
s21, drawing an equivalent reliability analysis flow chart covering a bus, a circuit breaker, a disconnecting switch, a transformer and an outgoing line according to a transformer substation main wiring diagram;
s22, finding out the minimum cut set of the outgoing line according to the flow chart;
and S23, calculating the unavailability, outage rate and repair rate of each minimum cut set and the availability of the outgoing line of the substation according to the failure rate and repair rate of the elements in the minimum cut sets.
And S24, calculating the outage rate and the restoration rate of the outgoing lines of the transformer substation according to the availability of the outgoing lines and the outage rate and the restoration rate of each minimum cut set.
Preferably, the calculation formula of the unavailability of each minimal cut set is
The repair rate calculation formula of each minimal cut set is
The shutdown rate calculation formula of each cut set is
The calculation formula of the outgoing line availability of the transformer substation is A s ＝1-P(C 1 ∪C 2 ∪C i …∪C g )，
λ m Is the failure rate of element m, mu m Is the repair rate of element m, n is the minimum cut set C i The number of the included elements is the same as the number of the included elements,
is the minimal cut set C i The failure rate of (a) is high,
is the minimum cut set C i G is the number of minimal cut sets.
Preferably, the outgoing line outage rate lambda of the transformer substation s Is calculated by the formula
Outgoing line repair rate mu of transformer substation s Is calculated by the formula
Where g is the number of minimal cut sets.
Preferably, the step S3 includes:
s31, according to the influence of element faults on the non-minimum path on the reliability of the load point, the element faults are classified to the corresponding nodes of the minimum path;
s32, summarizing to form an FMEA table;
and S33, calculating the reliability index.
According to the invention, the mutual influence of high, medium and low voltage distribution networks is considered, a distribution network integrated model is established, the reliability of the high, medium and low voltage integrated distribution network topology is evaluated by adopting a mixed method combining a quasi-sequential Monte Carlo method and an analytic method, the mutual influence between the high, medium and low voltage distribution networks is comprehensively considered, the accuracy of an evaluation result is improved, the evaluation of the distribution network relates to the low voltage distribution network topology, and the calculation accuracy of the power supply reliability of a low voltage user is improved.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiments of the invention and, together with the description, serve to explain the invention and not to limit the invention. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of four loads of the distribution network integration model of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of an RTS79 system;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of a modified RBTS BUS 6F 4 system;
FIG. 4 is a state transition diagram;
FIG. 5 is a main wiring diagram of the transformer substation according to the present embodiment;
fig. 6 is a transformer substation reliability analysis flowchart of the present embodiment.
Detailed Description
The invention is described below with reference to an exemplary embodiment and the accompanying drawings.
The method comprises the steps of firstly establishing a high-voltage, medium-voltage and low-voltage integrated distribution network model, wherein in the distribution network integrated model, a high-voltage distribution network topology and a medium-voltage distribution network topology are connected by a transformer substation, the reliability characteristics of the transformer substation can be expressed according to the outgoing line availability, the influence of different transformer substation main wiring on the distribution network reliability is considered, and the universality of the model is improved. The invention mainly considers the main wiring model of the transformer substation under the double-bus wiring mode and the single-bus sectional wiring mode. The low-voltage distribution network topology adopts a typical radial wiring mode for simulation, meanwhile, the actual low-voltage power grid can be subjected to topology simulation to a certain degree through typical load distribution combinations with different proportions, so that the low-voltage distribution network topology is suitable for reliability evaluation of a general low-voltage distribution network, and four load distribution modes adopted by the invention are shown in figure 1. The validity of the algorithm is proved by adopting an IEEE RTS79 system and a modified RBTS BUS 6F 4, and the IEEE RTS79 system and the modified RBTS BUS 6F 4 system are respectively shown in fig. 2 and fig. 3.
An IEEE RTS79 system is adopted as an upper-layer high-voltage network, a typical radial low-voltage topology is accessed to a modified IEEE RBTS bus6 system to serve as a low-voltage topology in a power distribution network, the outage rate of the line unit length of the IEEE RBTS bus6 system is 0.065 (times/km.year), and the average repair time is 5 hours; the outage rate of the distribution transformer is 0.015 (times/machine/year), and the average repair time is 10 hours; the operating time DST of the disconnector and the operating time TST of the tie switch are both 1 h. In the present embodiment, the load point 1 is used as a test node, and when the load of the load point 1 is uniformly distributed, the load point 1 is a user group a, a user group B in descending distribution, a user group C in ascending distribution, and a load group D in concentrated distribution.
The mixed calculation method for the reliability of the high, medium and low voltage integrated power distribution network comprises the following steps:
s1, evaluating the reliability of the high-voltage distribution network based on the quasi-sequential Monte Carlo simulation of the state transition sampling method to obtain the reliability index of the high-voltage distribution network; the reliability index comprises the annual average failure frequency and annual average power failure time, and the specific steps are
S11, system state sampling is performed based on the element failure probability, and if the sampled sample is a black invalid state as shown in fig. 4, the state is deleted and sampling is performed again.
S12, if the extracted system state is a valid load shedding state (as shown by the gray dots in fig. 4), forward and backward simulations are performed according to the state transition probability with the load shedding state as the center, and finally a system state sequence composed of all the load shedding states is obtained.
And S13, calculating the average annual fault frequency and the average annual power failure time of the high-voltage distribution network by using the reliability index calculation formula of the quasi-sequential algorithm, wherein the calculation formulas are shown in formulas (1) to (2).
Wherein λ is LOLP Is the annual mean failure number, lambda LOLF The average annual power failure time, N is the failure state times obtained by sampling, N is the total state number extracted by the quasi-sequential algorithm, D is the average duration time of a certain state, and M i Is a load shedding sequence in a failure state, xi is a sample set of the ith fault state, X f For sampling the resulting sample set of fault conditions, f lolf And the test function is a corresponding reliability index.
After the system state is sampled, the state of the sampled sample needs to be analyzed and the fault result needs to be obtained. User sensitivity division is carried out on the evaluated network topology before the fault consequences are obtained, more accurate evaluation results are obtained by considering different user sensitivity differences, and the reliability of the system and the reliability of the users are not only represented by the size of the load shedding amount. A DC optimal load reduction model is adopted when load reduction is carried out.
Load sensitivity classification: the method comprises the following steps of carrying out sensitivity division on users by comprehensively considering factors such as user requirements, user characteristics, regional political importance and the like, and determining the sensitivity weight occupied by each regional user through an analytic hierarchy process, wherein the sensitivity weight factors adopted by the method are shown in a table 1:
TABLE 1
| Sensitivity rating | Sensitivity weighting |
| High sensitivity | 0.5 |
| General sensitivity | 0.3 |
| Is not sensitive | 0.2 |
The optimal load reduction model of the system: the invention adopts an optimal load reduction strategy which comprehensively considers user sensitivity and economic benefit. The objective function and the constraint condition are respectively shown as formula (3) and formula (4):
wherein: m belongs to L, i belongs to n 2 ，i∈n 1 ，P Gi For the output active power of generator i, mu i As a sensitivity weight, C i For power reduction of load node i, P Di Is the initial active power of the load node, P Gi min Is the minimum output of the generator i, P Gi max Active for maximum output of the generator, T m For active power flow of line m, T m min Is the minimum capacity, T, of the line m m max Is the maximum capacity of line m, n 2 Is the number of load nodes, n 1 The number of generator nodes, and L the number of lines.
In the embodiment, the average annual power loss times and the average annual power failure time of the high-voltage bus of the transformer substation calculated by the quasi-sequential monte carlo method are shown in table 2
Table 2:
s2, obtaining the outage rate and the restoration rate of the outgoing lines of the transformer substation connecting the high-voltage distribution network and the medium-voltage distribution network; as shown in fig. 5, which is a main connection diagram of the substation in this embodiment, step S2 specifically includes:
s21, drawing an equivalent reliability analysis flow chart covering a bus, a circuit breaker, a disconnecting switch, a transformer and an outgoing line according to a transformer substation main wiring diagram; as shown in fig. 6, it is a transformer substation reliability analysis flowchart of this embodiment.
S22, finding out the minimum cut set of the outgoing line according to the flow chart; the minimal cut set of W3 is found and listed according to the flow chart, as shown in Table 3:
TABLE 3
| Serial number | Element(s) | Serial number | Element(s) |
| 1 | |
6 | |
| 2 | QS1W2 | 7 | |
| 3 | W1QS1′ | 8 | |
| 4 | QS1QS1′ | 9 | |
| 5 | |
10 | QS 13 |
And S23, calculating the unavailability, outage rate and repair rate of each minimum cut set and the availability of the outgoing line of the substation according to the failure rate and repair rate of the elements in the minimum cut sets. The unavailability of each minimal cut set is calculated by
The repair rate of each minimal cut set is calculated by the formula
The outage rate of each cut set is calculated by the formula
The calculation formula of the outgoing line availability of the transformer substation is A s ＝1-P(C 1 ∪C 2 ∪C i …∪C g )，
λ m Is the failure rate of element m, mu m Is the repair rate of element m, n is the minimum cut set C i The number of the included elements is the same as the number of the included elements,
is a minimal cut setC i The failure rate of (a) is high,
is the minimum cut set C i G is the number of minimal cut sets.
And S24, calculating the outage rate and the restoration rate of the outgoing lines of the transformer substation according to the availability of the outgoing lines and the outage rate and the restoration rate of each minimum cut set. Outgoing line outage rate lambda of transformer substation s Is calculated by the formula
Outgoing line repair rate mu of transformer substation s Is calculated by the formula
Where g is the number of minimal cut sets. The calculation results are shown in table 4:
TABLE 4
And S3, taking the outage rate and the repair rate of the outgoing lines of the transformer substation as the input of the reliability calculation of the medium-low voltage distribution network, and calculating the reliability index of the medium-low voltage distribution network by using a minimum path method.
S31, according to the influence of element faults on the non-minimum path on the reliability of the load point, the element faults are classified to the corresponding nodes of the minimum path;
s32, summarizing to form an FMEA table;
and S33, calculating the reliability index. The reliability index calculation results of the user group a on the low voltage side are shown in table 5, and the results of the other user group B, C, D are not shown.
TABLE 5
Claims (7)
1. A mixed calculation method for the reliability of a high-medium-low voltage integrated power distribution network is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, evaluating the reliability of the high-voltage distribution network based on the quasi-sequential Monte Carlo simulation of the state transition sampling method to obtain the annual average failure times and annual average power failure time of the high-voltage distribution network;
s21, drawing an equivalent reliability analysis flow chart covering a bus, a circuit breaker, a disconnecting switch, a transformer and an outgoing line according to a transformer substation main wiring diagram;
s22, finding out the minimum cut set of the outgoing line according to the flow chart;
s23, calculating the unavailability, outage rate and repair rate of each minimal cut set and the outgoing line availability of the transformer substation according to the failure rate and repair rate of the elements in the minimal cut sets, wherein the unavailability calculation formula of each minimal cut set is
The repair rate calculation formula of each minimal cut set is
The outage rate of each minimal cut set is calculated according to the formula
The transformer substation outgoing line availability calculation formula is A s ＝1-P(C 1 ∪C 2 ∪C i …∪C g )，
λ m Is the failure rate of element m, mu m Is the repair rate of element m, n is the minimum cut set C i The number of the elements contained in the circuit board,
is a minimum cutCollection C i G is the number of the minimum cut sets;
s24, calculating the outage rate and the restoration rate of the outgoing lines of the transformer substation according to the availability of the outgoing lines and the outage rate and the restoration rate of each minimum cut set;
and S3, taking the outage rate and the repair rate of the outgoing lines of the transformer substation as the input of the reliability calculation of the medium-low voltage distribution network, and calculating the reliability index of the medium-low voltage distribution network by using a minimum path method.
2. The hybrid calculation method for the reliability of the high, medium and low voltage integrated power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the reliability indexes comprise annual average failure times, annual average power failure time and annual average power loss.
3. The hybrid calculation method for the reliability of the high, medium and low voltage integrated power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the step S1 comprises:
s11, sampling the system state according to the element failure probability, if the extracted sample is in an invalid state, deleting the state and sampling again;
s12, if the extracted system state is an effective load shedding state, taking the load shedding state as a center, carrying out forward and backward simulation according to the state transition probability, and finally obtaining a system state sequence consisting of all the load shedding states;
and S13, calculating the average annual fault frequency, the average annual power failure time and the average annual power loss of the high-voltage distribution network by using a reliability index calculation formula of a quasi-sequential algorithm.
4. The hybrid calculation method for the reliability of the high, medium and low voltage integrated power distribution network according to claim 3, characterized in that after the sampling of the system state is completed, the user sensitivity division is performed on the evaluated network topology, and a direct current optimal load reduction model is adopted during load reduction.
5. The hybrid calculation method for the reliability of the high, medium and low voltage integrated power distribution network according to claim 3, wherein the calculation formula of the annual average failure times and annual average power failure time of the high voltage distribution network is as follows:
wherein λ is LOLP Is the annual mean failure number, lambda LOLF The average annual power failure time, N is the failure state frequency obtained by sampling, N is the total state number extracted by the quasi-sequential algorithm, D (S) j ) Is the average duration of a state, M i For load shedding sequences in the failure state, S j For the jth load shedding, xi is the set of samples for the ith fault condition, X f For sampling the resulting sample set of fault conditions, f lolf And the test function is a corresponding reliability index.
6. The hybrid calculation method for the reliability of the high, medium and low voltage integrated power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the outage rate λ of the outgoing line of the transformer substation s Is calculated by the formula
Outgoing line repair rate mu of transformer substation s Is calculated by the formula
Where g is the number of minimal cut sets.
7. The hybrid calculation method for the reliability of the high, medium and low voltage integrated power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the step S3 comprises:
s31, according to the influence of element faults on the non-minimum path on the reliability of the load point, the element faults are classified to the corresponding nodes of the minimum path;
s32, summarizing to form an FMEA table;
and S33, calculating the reliability index.
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| 序贯蒙特卡洛方法在电力系统可靠性评估中的;暴英凯等;《电网技术》;20140531;第38卷(第5期);第1189-1195页 * |
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