CN118917551A - Financial data analysis system and method - Google Patents
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Abstract
Description
技术领域Technical Field
本发明涉及财务数据分析技术领域,具体为一种财务数据分析系统及方法。The present invention relates to the technical field of financial data analysis, and in particular to a financial data analysis system and method.
背景技术Background Art
在当今的经济环境中,企业的财务状况分析对于决策者来说是至关重要的。准确的财务预测可以帮助企业合理规划资源,有效规避风险,从而在激烈的市场竞争中保持优势,然而,财务数据分析是一个复杂的过程,它涉及到对大量数据的处理和分析,以及对企业未来财务状况的预测。In today's economic environment, the analysis of a company's financial status is crucial for decision makers. Accurate financial forecasts can help companies rationally plan resources and effectively avoid risks, thereby maintaining their advantages in the fierce market competition. However, financial data analysis is a complex process that involves the processing and analysis of large amounts of data, as well as the prediction of the company's future financial status.
然而,在财务预测模型方面,现有的技术利用数据分析和统计方法,对数据的适应性较差,无法灵活应对财务数据中的复杂模式和动态变化,当市场环境、企业内部结构或政策法规发生显著变化时,难以迅速调整和优化,其次,现有的自优化机制往往不够智能和自动化,对于新数据的利用不够充分,无法实时将新的数据信息挖掘财务数据中的潜在特征,无法提供准确、实时的财务预测,这使得企业在做出重要决策时可能面临过时和错误的信息风险。However, in terms of financial forecasting models, existing technologies use data analysis and statistical methods, which have poor adaptability to data and cannot flexibly respond to complex patterns and dynamic changes in financial data. When the market environment, internal corporate structure or policies and regulations change significantly, it is difficult to quickly adjust and optimize. Secondly, existing self-optimization mechanisms are often not smart and automated enough, and do not make full use of new data. They cannot mine the potential characteristics of financial data from new data information in real time, and cannot provide accurate and real-time financial forecasts. This makes companies face the risk of outdated and erroneous information when making important decisions.
综上所述,现有的财务分析技术在应对快速变化的市场环境和企业复杂的财务状况时,表现出明显的局限性和不适应性,因此,开发一种能够自动学习、自我优化并高效整合多源财务数据的智能分析系统,成为了当前财务管理领域亟待解决的重要问题。To sum up, the existing financial analysis technology shows obvious limitations and inadaptability when dealing with the rapidly changing market environment and the complex financial situation of enterprises. Therefore, developing an intelligent analysis system that can automatically learn, self-optimize and efficiently integrate multi-source financial data has become an important issue that needs to be urgently solved in the current financial management field.
发明内容Summary of the invention
本发明的目的就是为了弥补现有技术的不足,提供了一种财务数据分析系统及方法,该系统能够自动收集和处理多源异构财务数据,构建高精度的预测模型,并根据市场变化实时调整优化策略,从而为企业的财务管理提供更为精准、及时的支持。The purpose of the present invention is to make up for the shortcomings of the existing technology and provide a financial data analysis system and method, which can automatically collect and process multi-source heterogeneous financial data, build a high-precision prediction model, and adjust the optimization strategy in real time according to market changes, thereby providing more accurate and timely support for the financial management of the enterprise.
本发明为解决上述技术问题,提供如下技术方案:一方面,一种财务数据分析系统,该系统的组成部分包括:基础数据收集与预处理模块、智能预测模型构建与优化模块、关系图谱构建与分析模块、项目资金投入与产出分析模块、决策支持与建议生成模块;In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides the following technical solutions: On the one hand, a financial data analysis system, the components of which include: a basic data collection and preprocessing module, an intelligent prediction model construction and optimization module, a relationship map construction and analysis module, a project capital investment and output analysis module, and a decision support and suggestion generation module;
所述基础数据收集与预处理模块用于整合多源异构数据,包括企业内部数据源和外部数据源,并对收集到的数据进行清洗、标准化和转换处理;The basic data collection and preprocessing module is used to integrate multi-source heterogeneous data, including internal data sources and external data sources of the enterprise, and clean, standardize and convert the collected data;
所述智能预测模型构建与优化模块利用机器学习算法构建初始预测模型,进行特征工程,训练和验证模型,并通过自动反馈与调整机制进行模型的自优化;The intelligent prediction model construction and optimization module uses machine learning algorithms to build an initial prediction model, perform feature engineering, train and verify the model, and self-optimize the model through automatic feedback and adjustment mechanisms;
所述关系图谱构建与分析模块用于构建包含投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金、利润分配的财务实体及其关联信息,挖掘隐藏的数据关联与潜在风险点;The relationship map construction and analysis module is used to construct financial entities including investment, financing, income, cost, tax, profit distribution and their associated information, and to mine hidden data associations and potential risk points;
所述项目资金投入与产出分析模块用于将智能预测模型的输出结果与关系图谱中的相关数据相结合,计算投入产出比的关键指标,进行敏感度分析和风险预警;The project capital input and output analysis module is used to combine the output results of the intelligent prediction model with the relevant data in the relationship map, calculate the key indicators of the input-output ratio, and perform sensitivity analysis and risk warning;
所述决策支持与建议生成模块基于分析结果,自动生成个性化财务决策建议,包括资金调配策略、成本控制措施、税务筹划方案,提供交互式界面,支持用户根据实际需求调整假设条件,进行情景模拟分析。The decision support and suggestion generation module automatically generates personalized financial decision suggestions based on the analysis results, including fund allocation strategies, cost control measures, and tax planning schemes, and provides an interactive interface to support users to adjust assumptions according to actual needs and conduct scenario simulation analysis.
更进一步地,所述基础数据收集与预处理模块收集多源异构数据,其中多源数据分别包括:Furthermore, the basic data collection and preprocessing module collects multi-source heterogeneous data, wherein the multi-source data respectively include:
外部数据来源包括但不限于公共数据库、行业报告、政策文件;External data sources include, but are not limited to, public databases, industry reports, and policy documents;
内部数据来源从企业内部系统采集投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金、利润分配的六类基础财务数据。Internal data sources collect six types of basic financial data including investment, financing, income, cost, tax and profit distribution from the company's internal system.
更进一步地,所述智能预测模型构建与优化模块的具体步骤为:Furthermore, the specific steps of the intelligent prediction model construction and optimization module are:
模型选择:分析财务数据的特点,根据预测目标,即预测收入的趋势和评估利润的风险,选择机器学习算法,对财务数据进行初步分析,即确定问题类型,进行时间序列预测,即收入的未来趋势、即判断企业的财务风险等级、预测利润额;Model selection: Analyze the characteristics of financial data and select machine learning algorithms based on the forecasting objectives, i.e., predicting the trend of revenue and assessing the risk of profits. Perform a preliminary analysis of the financial data, i.e., determine the type of problem, and conduct time series forecasting, i.e., predict the future trend of revenue, i.e., determine the financial risk level of the enterprise, and predict the profit amount.
特征工程:针对六类基础财务数据,运用特征降维方法PCA,对提取的特征进行筛选和优化,突出对预测结果有重要影响的特征;Feature Engineering: For six types of basic financial data, PCA, a feature dimension reduction method, is used to screen and optimize the extracted features, highlighting the features that have an important impact on the prediction results;
模型训练与验证:采用交叉验证,将包含六类基础财务数据的数据集划分为训练集和测试集,使用训练集对模型进行训练,通过调整模型参数,以及模型结构优化模型在投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金、利润分配方面的预测精度和泛化能力,使用测试集验证模型性能;Model training and validation: Using cross validation, the dataset containing six types of basic financial data is divided into a training set and a test set. The model is trained using the training set. The model parameters and model structure are adjusted to optimize the model's prediction accuracy and generalization ability in investment, financing, income, cost, taxation, and profit distribution. The model performance is validated using the test set.
自优化机制:持续接收新的投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金、利润分配基础财务数据,并输入到已训练的模型中进行预测,计算模型的性能指标,保持对六类基础财务数据的准确预测。Self-optimization mechanism: Continuously receive new basic financial data on investment, financing, income, cost, tax, and profit distribution, and input them into the trained model for prediction, calculate the model's performance indicators, and maintain accurate predictions for the six types of basic financial data.
更进一步地,所述智能预测模型构建与优化模块对具有明显时间序列特征的数据,即收入、成本,使用机器学习算法中的线性回归技术定义模型,即yi=β0+β1X1+β2X2+…+βnXi+∈,其中,yi表示预测的目标变量,即收入和成本,X1至Xi为自变量,包括但不限于时间、前期收入和成本值、相关经济指标,β0为截距,β1至βn为回归系数,∈为误差项,使用均方误差作为评估模型预测值与真实值差异的损失函数,其公式为:其中m为样本数量,yi为真实值,为模型预测值,使用测试集数据对训练好的收入和成本模型进行评估,比较不同模型的性能指标,将选择的最优模型应用于新的时间数据,进行收入和成本的预测。Furthermore, the intelligent prediction model construction and optimization module uses the linear regression technology in the machine learning algorithm to define the model for data with obvious time series characteristics, namely, income and cost, that is, y i =β 0 +β 1 X 1 +β 2 X 2 +…+β n Xi +∈, where y i represents the predicted target variable, namely, income and cost, X 1 to Xi are independent variables, including but not limited to time, previous income and cost values, and related economic indicators, β 0 is the intercept, β 1 to β n are regression coefficients, ∈ is the error term, and the mean square error is used as the loss function to evaluate the difference between the model prediction value and the true value, and the formula is: Where m is the number of samples, yi is the true value, To predict the model value, use the test set data to evaluate the trained income and cost models, compare the performance indicators of different models, and apply the selected optimal model to the new time data to predict the income and cost.
更进一步地,所述智能预测模型构建与优化模块针对六类基础财务数据,运用特征降维方法PCA,对特征数据进行标准化处理,使得各特征具有零均值和单位方差,即原始特征矩阵为X,其中每一行代表一个样本,每一列代表一个特征,标准化后的特征矩阵记为X′,则标准化公式为:其中μj是第j列特征的均值,σj是第j列特征的标准差,计算标准化后特征矩阵的协方差矩阵C,即其中n是样本数量,对协方差矩阵C进行特征值分解,得到特征值λi和对应的特征向量vi,按照特征值从大到小的顺序排列,选择前k个特征值对应的特征向量构成投影矩阵P,将原始的衍生特征矩阵X′乘以投影矩阵P,得到降维后的特征矩阵Y=X′P,从而实现特征的降维,并通过特征重要性评估,确定投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金、利润分配数据中对预测结果影响显著的关键特征。Furthermore, the intelligent prediction model construction and optimization module uses the feature dimension reduction method PCA for six types of basic financial data to standardize the feature data so that each feature has zero mean and unit variance, that is, the original feature matrix is X, where each row represents a sample and each column represents a feature. The standardized feature matrix is recorded as X ′ , and the standardization formula is: Where μ j is the mean of the j-th column feature, σ j is the standard deviation of the j-th column feature, and the covariance matrix C of the standardized feature matrix is calculated, that is, Where n is the number of samples. The covariance matrix C is decomposed by eigenvalue to obtain the eigenvalue λ i and the corresponding eigenvector vi . The eigenvalues are arranged in descending order, and the eigenvectors corresponding to the first k eigenvalues are selected to form the projection matrix P. The original derived feature matrix X ′ is multiplied by the projection matrix P to obtain the reduced dimension feature matrix Y = X ′ P, thereby achieving feature dimensionality reduction. Through feature importance evaluation, the key features that have a significant impact on the prediction results in the investment, financing, income, cost, tax, and profit distribution data are determined.
更进一步地,所述关系图谱构建与分析模块的具体步骤为:Furthermore, the specific steps of the relationship map construction and analysis module are:
定义实体类型:明确投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金和利润分配作为财务实体的类型,并为每个类型定义相关的属性,即投资的金额、期限,筹资的方式、利率,收入的来源、时间,成本的种类、数额,税金的种类、税率,利润分配的比例、对象;Define entity types: clearly define investment, financing, income, cost, tax and profit distribution as types of financial entities, and define relevant attributes for each type, i.e., investment amount and term, financing method and interest rate, income source and time, cost type and amount, tax type and tax rate, profit distribution ratio and object;
确定关系类型:定义财务实体之间的关系,即投资与收入之间的关联,筹资与成本之间的关系,收入与利润分配的关系;Determine the relationship type: define the relationship between financial entities, i.e. the connection between investment and income, between financing and costs, and between income and profit distribution;
采集和整理数据:从基础数据收集与预处理模块获取经过处理的财务数据,并按照定义的实体和关系类型进行整理;Collect and organize data: Obtain processed financial data from the basic data collection and preprocessing module and organize it according to the defined entity and relationship types;
利用图数据库存储:使用图数据库,创建节点来表示财务实体,创建边来表示实体之间的关系,并为节点和边添加相应的属性数据;Use graph database storage: Use a graph database to create nodes to represent financial entities, edges to represent the relationships between entities, and add corresponding attribute data to nodes and edges;
图分析算法应用:计算每个财务实体的重要性得分,对于投资项目,根据其与其他实体的连接关系和强度,评估其在整个财务体系中的重要性。Application of graph analysis algorithm: Calculate the importance score of each financial entity. For investment projects, evaluate their importance in the entire financial system based on their connection relationship and strength with other entities.
更进一步地,所述关系图谱构建与分析模块中利用图分析算法中的PageRank算法,为每个财务实体节点赋予一个初始的PageRank值,对于每个节点i,其PageRank值PR(j)的更新公式为,即d是阻尼系数,M(i)是指向节点i的节点集合,L(j)是节点j指出的链接数量,对于投资节点,M(i)是与其相关联的其他财务节点,即收入节点、成本节点,L(j)则是这些相关节点指出的链接数量。Furthermore, the relationship graph construction and analysis module uses the PageRank algorithm in the graph analysis algorithm to assign an initial PageRank value to each financial entity node. For each node i, the update formula of its PageRank value PR(j) is: d is the damping coefficient, M(i) is the set of nodes pointing to node i, L(j) is the number of links pointed out by node j, for investment nodes, M(i) is the other financial nodes associated with it, namely income nodes and cost nodes, and L(j) is the number of links pointed out by these related nodes.
更进一步地,所述项目资金投入与产出分析模块从智能预测模型构建与优化模块获取收入预测、成本预测的数据,从关系图谱构建与分析模块获取与投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金、利润分配相关的关系数据,将智能预测模型的输出结果与关系图谱中的相关数据进行关联和整合,建立统一的分析数据集,根据预测的收入数据和实际的收入情况,以及预测的成本数据和实际的成本投入,计算投入产出比ROI,即明确总收入和总成本的计算范围,总收入包括产品和服务的销售收入、投资收益与项目相关的所有收入来源,总成本涵盖直接成本、间接成本、固定成本和可变成本,将各个收入来源进行汇总,即收入来源有n种,分别为I1,I2,…,In,则总收入TI为:将各类成本进行相加,即成本类别有m种,分别为C1,C2,…,Cm,则总成本TC为:投入产出比ROI的计算公式为:预测项目在未来各期的净现金流量,包括现金流入和现金流出,即预测的期限为T期,第t期的净现金流量为CFt,计算净现值NPV,即r为内部收益率估计值,通过迭代不断调整内部收益率r的值,使得净现值NPV趋近于零,即为所求的项目内部收益率。Furthermore, the project capital investment and output analysis module obtains the data of revenue forecast and cost forecast from the intelligent forecast model construction and optimization module, obtains the relationship data related to investment, financing, revenue, cost, tax and profit distribution from the relationship map construction and analysis module, associates and integrates the output results of the intelligent forecast model with the relevant data in the relationship map, establishes a unified analysis data set, calculates the input-output ratio ROI according to the predicted revenue data and the actual revenue situation, as well as the predicted cost data and the actual cost input, that is, clarifies the calculation scope of total revenue and total cost, the total revenue includes the sales revenue of products and services, investment income and all sources of revenue related to the project, the total cost covers direct cost, indirect cost, fixed cost and variable cost, and summarizes the various sources of revenue, that is, there are n sources of revenue, namely I 1 , I 2 ,…, I n , then the total revenue TI is: Add up all kinds of costs, that is, there are m types of cost categories, namely C 1 , C 2 ,…, C m , then the total cost TC is: The calculation formula for ROI is: Predict the net cash flow of the project in the future periods, including cash inflows and cash outflows. That is, the forecast period is T period, the net cash flow in period t is CF t , and the net present value NPV is calculated, that is, r is the estimated value of internal rate of return. The value of internal rate of return r is adjusted through iteration so that the net present value NPV approaches zero, which is the required internal rate of return of the project.
另一方面,一种财务数据分析方法,该方法具体步骤为:On the other hand, a financial data analysis method, the specific steps of the method are:
S100,基础数据收集与预处理:用于整合多源异构数据,包括企业内部数据源和外部数据源,并对收集到的数据进行清洗、标准化和转换处理;S100, basic data collection and preprocessing: used to integrate multi-source heterogeneous data, including internal and external data sources, and clean, standardize and convert the collected data;
S200,智能预测模型构建与优化:利用机器学习算法构建初始预测模型,进行特征工程,训练和验证模型,并通过自动反馈与调整机制进行模型的自优化;S200, intelligent prediction model construction and optimization: use machine learning algorithms to build initial prediction models, perform feature engineering, train and validate models, and self-optimize models through automatic feedback and adjustment mechanisms;
S300,关系图谱构建与分析:用于构建包含投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金、利润分配的财务实体及其关联信息,挖掘隐藏的数据关联与潜在风险点;S300, relationship map construction and analysis: used to construct financial entities and their associated information including investment, financing, income, cost, tax, profit distribution, and to mine hidden data associations and potential risk points;
S400,项目资金投入与产出分析:用于将智能预测模型的输出结果与关系图谱中的相关数据相结合,计算投入产出比的关键指标,进行敏感度分析和风险预警;S400, project capital input and output analysis: used to combine the output results of the intelligent prediction model with the relevant data in the relationship map, calculate the key indicators of the input-output ratio, and conduct sensitivity analysis and risk warning;
S500,决策支持与建议生成:基于分析结果,自动生成个性化财务决策建议,包括资金调配策略、成本控制措施、税务筹划方案,提供交互式界面,支持用户根据实际需求调整假设条件,进行情景模拟分析。S500, decision support and suggestion generation: Based on the analysis results, it automatically generates personalized financial decision suggestions, including fund allocation strategies, cost control measures, and tax planning schemes. It provides an interactive interface to support users to adjust assumptions according to actual needs and conduct scenario simulation analysis.
更进一步地,所述S500中的情景模拟分析设计情景模拟的输入界面,输入不同的市场条件参数,即市场增长率、竞争激烈程度、价格波动范围,根据输入条件,调用预测模型,模拟不同决策路径下的财务结果,包括收入、成本、利润、现金流关键指标的变化,将模拟结果以数据表格的形式清晰直观的呈现出不同决策策略的潜在风险和收益。Furthermore, the scenario simulation analysis in S500 designs an input interface for scenario simulation, inputs different market condition parameters, namely, market growth rate, degree of competition, price fluctuation range, and calls the prediction model according to the input conditions to simulate the financial results under different decision paths, including changes in key indicators of revenue, cost, profit, and cash flow, and presents the simulation results in the form of a data table to clearly and intuitively present the potential risks and benefits of different decision strategies.
与现有技术相比,该一种财务数据分析系统及方法具备如下有益效果:Compared with the prior art, this financial data analysis system and method has the following beneficial effects:
一、本系统通过引入人工智能自优化机制,能够不断地根据市场变化调整预测模型的参数和结构,并深度分析投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金及利润分配六类基础财务数据,为企业提供了全面、精准的财务状况评估,从而提高财务预测的准确性和时效性,通过自优化机制,使模型能够实时适应市场变化,保持预测精度,这种实时性确保了企业能够迅速响应市场动态,做出及时调整。1. By introducing an artificial intelligence self-optimization mechanism, this system can continuously adjust the parameters and structure of the forecasting model according to market changes, and deeply analyze six types of basic financial data: investment, financing, income, cost, tax and profit distribution, providing enterprises with a comprehensive and accurate financial status assessment, thereby improving the accuracy and timeliness of financial forecasts. Through the self-optimization mechanism, the model can adapt to market changes in real time and maintain forecast accuracy. This real-time performance ensures that enterprises can respond quickly to market dynamics and make timely adjustments.
二、本发明通过全面的数据分析与预测,为企业提供科学、合理的财务决策依据,并通过智能预测模型构建与优化模块提供的精确预测数据,结合关系图谱构建与分析模块中的关联关系分析,来支持更精细的决策制定,企业可以基于更加全面和深入的信息来进行资源配置和战略规划,从而提升整体竞争力。2. The present invention provides scientific and reasonable financial decision-making basis for enterprises through comprehensive data analysis and prediction, and supports more refined decision-making through precise prediction data provided by intelligent prediction model construction and optimization module, combined with correlation analysis in relationship map construction and analysis module. Enterprises can carry out resource allocation and strategic planning based on more comprehensive and in-depth information, thereby improving overall competitiveness.
本发明的其他优点、目标和特征在某种程度上将在随后的说明书中进行阐述,并且在某种程度上,基于对下文的考察研究对本领域技术人员而言将是显而易见的,或者可以从本发明的实践中得到教导。Other advantages, objectives and features of the present invention will be set forth in part in the following description and, in part, will be apparent to those skilled in the art based on an examination of the following or may be taught from the practice of the present invention.
附图说明BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
为了更清楚地说明本发明实施例或现有技术中的技术方案,下面将对实施例或现有技术描述中所需要使用的附图作简单地介绍。显而易见地,下面描述中的附图仅仅是本发明的一些实施例,对于本领域普通技术人员来讲,在不付出创造性劳动的前提下,还可以根据这些附图获得其他的附图。In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings required for use in the embodiments or the prior art descriptions are briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention, and for ordinary technicians in this field, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative work.
图1为一种财务数据分析系统的操作流程图。FIG1 is an operation flow chart of a financial data analysis system.
图2为一种财务数据分析方法的流程图。FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a financial data analysis method.
具体实施方式DETAILED DESCRIPTION
下面将对本发明实施例中的技术方案进行清楚、完整的描述,显然,所描述的实施例仅仅是本发明一部分实施例,而不是全部的实施例。基于本发明中的实施例,本领域普通技术人员在没有做出创造性劳动前提下所获得的所有其他实施例,都属于本发明保护的范围。The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention are described clearly and completely below. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by ordinary technicians in this field without creative work are within the scope of protection of the present invention.
实施例一Embodiment 1
本实施例提供了一种财务数据分析系统,通过基于人工智能的自优化财务预测模型,能够深度挖掘数据中的潜在模式和关联,不断根据新数据和市场变化调整模型参数,从而显著提高财务预测的准确性,为企业提供更可靠的决策依据。This embodiment provides a financial data analysis system, which, through a self-optimizing financial forecasting model based on artificial intelligence, can deeply mine the potential patterns and associations in the data, and continuously adjust the model parameters according to new data and market changes, thereby significantly improving the accuracy of financial forecasts and providing enterprises with more reliable decision-making basis.
在具体实现中,首先,收集来自企业内部和外部的各种数据,并对这些数据进行预处理,以便于后续的分析工作,外部数据来源包括但不限于公共数据库、行业报告、政策文件,这些数据有助于了解行业趋势、竞争对手状况以及宏观经济环境,内部数据来源从企业内部系统中采集的数据,主要包括六类基础财务数据:投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金、利润分配,检查并修正或删除数据中的错误、缺失或异常值,识别数据中的逻辑错误或不符合规则的记录,填补缺失的数据点或标记为不可用,识别并处理超出正常范围的数据点,确保所有数据在同一尺度上,以便于比较和分析,将非数值数据转换为数值形式,例如将分类数据编码为数值,将不同单位的数据转换为同一单位,例如将货币单位统一为人民币元,将处理完成的数据输出给下一个处理阶段或存入数据仓库/数据库中,将数据存储到合适的数据仓库或数据库中,为后续处理阶段提供数据接口。In the specific implementation, first, various data from inside and outside the enterprise are collected and pre-processed to facilitate subsequent analysis. External data sources include but are not limited to public databases, industry reports, and policy documents. These data help to understand industry trends, competitor conditions, and the macroeconomic environment. Internal data sources are data collected from the internal system of the enterprise, mainly including six types of basic financial data: investment, financing, income, cost, tax, and profit distribution. Check and correct or delete errors, missing or outliers in the data, identify logical errors in the data or records that do not comply with the rules, fill in missing data points or mark them as unavailable, identify and process data points that are out of the normal range, ensure that all data are on the same scale for comparison and analysis, convert non-numeric data into numerical form, such as encoding classified data into numerical values, convert data in different units into the same unit, such as unifying the monetary unit into RMB, output the processed data to the next processing stage or store it in a data warehouse/database, store the data in a suitable data warehouse or database, and provide a data interface for subsequent processing stages.
然后,利用机器学习算法构建初始预测模型,分析财务数据的特点,包括数据的时间序列特性、分布情况以及变量之间的相关性,对于具有明显时间序列特征的数据(如收入、成本等),使用机器学习算法中的线性回归技术定义模型,即yi=β0+β1X1+β2X2+…+βnXi+∈,使用测试集数据对训练好的收入和成本模型进行评估,比较不同模型的性能指标,使用均方误差作为评估模型预测值与真实值差异的损失函数,其公式为:将选择的最优模型应用于新的时间数据,进行收入和成本的预测,针对六类基础财务数据(投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金、利润分配),计算衍生特征,如投资增长率、筹资波动率、收入趋势线、成本波动率、税金变化率、利润分配比例,运用特征降维方法,如PCA,对特征数据进行标准化处理,使得各特征具有零均值和单位方差,即原始特征矩阵为X,其中每一行代表一个样本,每一列代表一个特征,标准化后的特征矩阵记为X′,则标准化公式为:其中μj是第j列特征的均值,σj是第j列特征的标准差,计算标准化后特征矩阵的协方差矩阵C,即其中n是样本数量,对协方差矩阵C进行特征值分解,得到特征值λi和对应的特征向量vi,按照特征值从大到小的顺序排列,选择前k个特征值对应的特征向量构成投影矩阵P,将原始的衍生特征矩阵X′乘以投影矩阵P,得到降维后的特征矩阵Y=X′P,从而实现特征的降维,通过特征重要性评估,确定投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金、利润分配数据中对预测结果影响显著的关键特征,持续接收新的投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金、利润分配基础财务数据,并输入到已训练的模型中进行预测,计算模型的性能指标,如均方误差、准确率、召回率等,以评估模型预测性能,当模型在预测性能上未达到预设阈值时,自动触发模型再训练或参数调整过程,使模型能够实时适应市场变化,保持预测精度。Then, the initial prediction model is constructed using machine learning algorithms to analyze the characteristics of financial data, including the time series characteristics, distribution of data, and correlation between variables. For data with obvious time series characteristics (such as income, cost, etc.), the linear regression technology in the machine learning algorithm is used to define the model, that is, y i = β 0 + β 1 X 1 + β 2 X 2 + … + β n Xi + ∈. The trained income and cost models are evaluated using the test set data, and the performance indicators of different models are compared. The mean square error is used as the loss function to evaluate the difference between the model prediction value and the true value. The formula is: Apply the selected optimal model to the new time data to predict income and cost. Calculate the derived features for the six basic financial data (investment, financing, income, cost, tax, and profit distribution), such as investment growth rate, financing volatility, income trend line, cost volatility, tax change rate, and profit distribution ratio. Use feature dimension reduction methods, such as PCA, to standardize the feature data so that each feature has zero mean and unit variance. That is, the original feature matrix is X, where each row represents a sample and each column represents a feature. The standardized feature matrix is recorded as X ′ , and the standardization formula is: Where μ j is the mean of the j-th column feature, σ j is the standard deviation of the j-th column feature, and the covariance matrix C of the standardized feature matrix is calculated, that is, Where n is the number of samples. The covariance matrix C is decomposed by eigenvalues to obtain eigenvalues λ i and corresponding eigenvectors vi . The eigenvalues are arranged in descending order, and the eigenvectors corresponding to the first k eigenvalues are selected to form a projection matrix P. The original derived feature matrix X ′ is multiplied by the projection matrix P to obtain the reduced feature matrix Y = X ′ P, thereby achieving feature dimensionality reduction. Through feature importance evaluation, the key features that have a significant impact on the prediction results in the investment, financing, income, cost, tax, and profit distribution data are determined. New basic financial data on investment, financing, income, cost, tax, and profit distribution are continuously received and input into the trained model for prediction. The performance indicators of the model, such as mean square error, accuracy, recall, etc., are calculated to evaluate the model prediction performance. When the model does not reach the preset threshold in terms of prediction performance, the model retraining or parameter adjustment process is automatically triggered, so that the model can adapt to market changes in real time and maintain prediction accuracy.
实施例二Embodiment 2
本实施例旨在详细阐述一种财务数据分析系统的具体应用,整合了多源财务数据,构建了关系图谱进行全面分析,同时结合决策树和规则引擎生成个性化建议,并通过情景模拟让用户直观评估不同策略的风险与收益。This embodiment aims to elaborate on the specific application of a financial data analysis system, which integrates multi-source financial data, constructs a relationship map for comprehensive analysis, combines decision trees and rule engines to generate personalized suggestions, and allows users to intuitively evaluate the risks and benefits of different strategies through scenario simulation.
首先,明确投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金和利润分配等作为财务实体的类型,投资实体的属性包括投资金额、投资期限、投资项目类型等;收入实体的属性包括收入来源、收入时间、收入金额等,定义财务实体之间的关系,如投资与收入之间的关联(投资可能带来收入增长)、筹资与成本之间的关系(筹资可能产生成本)、收入与利润分配的关系等,从基础数据收集与预处理模块获取经过处理的相关财务数据,并按照定义的实体和关系类型进行整理,收集各子公司的投资项目信息、筹资渠道和金额、收入来源和成本构成等数据,使用图数据库,创建节点来表示财务实体,创建边来表示实体之间的关系,并为节点和边添加相应的属性数据,创建投资节点、收入节点,并建立它们之间的关联边,同时记录相关的属性信息,利用PageRank算法为每个财务实体节点赋予一个初始的PageRank值,对于每个节点i,其PageRank值PR(j)的更新公式为,即如果某个投资项目节点的PageRank得分较高,说明它对企业的财务状况具有重要影响,找出在资金流动中具有关键影响力的筹资渠道或收入来源节点,提供丰富的可视化工具,将复杂的财务数据关系以直观、易懂的方式呈现给用户,并展示投资、筹资、收入等实体之间的相互关系,显示重要财务指标的分布情况,呈现资金在不同实体之间的流动情况,用户可以通过自定义查询和筛选条件,快速定位感兴趣的数据点和关联关系。First, define investment, financing, income, cost, tax and profit distribution as types of financial entities. The attributes of investment entities include investment amount, investment period, investment project type, etc.; the attributes of income entities include income source, income time, income amount, etc. Define the relationship between financial entities, such as the relationship between investment and income (investment may bring income growth), the relationship between financing and cost (financing may generate costs), the relationship between income and profit distribution, etc. Obtain the processed relevant financial data from the basic data collection and preprocessing module, and organize it according to the defined entity and relationship types, collect investment project information, financing channels and amounts, income sources and cost structures of each subsidiary, use the graph database, create nodes to represent financial entities, create edges to represent the relationship between entities, and add corresponding attribute data to nodes and edges, create investment nodes and income nodes, and establish the association edges between them, and record the relevant attribute information. Use the PageRank algorithm to assign an initial PageRank value to each financial entity node. For each node i, the update formula of its PageRank value PR(j) is, that is, If the PageRank score of an investment project node is high, it means that it has a significant impact on the financial status of the enterprise. It can identify the financing channels or income source nodes that have a key influence on the flow of funds. It provides a wealth of visualization tools to present complex financial data relationships to users in an intuitive and easy-to-understand way, and display the relationships between entities such as investment, financing, and income, display the distribution of important financial indicators, and present the flow of funds between different entities. Users can quickly locate data points and relationships of interest through customized query and filtering conditions.
然后,从智能预测模型构建与优化模块获取收入预测、成本预测等数据,从关系图谱构建与分析模块获取与投资、筹资、收入、成本、税金、利润分配相关的关系数据,例如,获取某个投资项目的收入预测数据,以及该项目与其他财务实体的关联关系,明确总收入和总成本的计算范围,总收入包括产品或服务的销售收入、投资收益等与项目相关的所有收入来源;总成本涵盖直接成本(如原材料采购、劳动力成本)、间接成本(如管理费用、设备折旧)、固定成本(如租金、设备购置)和可变成本(如原材料消耗、按产量计算的工资),将各个收入来源进行汇总,假设收入来源有n种,分别为I1,I2,…,In,则总收入TI为:将各类成本进行相加,即成本类别有m种,分别为C1,C2,…,Cm,则总成本TC为:投入产出比ROI的计算公式为: 预测项目在未来各期的净现金流量,包括现金流入和现金流出,即预测的期限为T期,第t期的净现金流量为CFt,计算净现值NPV,即 通过迭代不断调整内部收益率r的值,使得净现值NPV趋近于零,即为所求的项目内部收益率,根据历史数据和行业经验,设定投入产出比和内部收益率的风险预警阈值,当ROI低于10%或内部收益率低于行业平均水平时,触发风险预警,当预测结果偏离预期范围时,自动发出警报,提醒用户关注潜在风险,自动向相关人员发送警报信息,提示可能存在的风险。Then, obtain the revenue forecast, cost forecast and other data from the intelligent prediction model construction and optimization module, and obtain the relationship data related to investment, financing, revenue, cost, tax and profit distribution from the relationship map construction and analysis module. For example, obtain the revenue forecast data of a certain investment project and the relationship between the project and other financial entities, and clarify the calculation scope of total revenue and total cost. The total revenue includes all sources of revenue related to the project, such as sales revenue of products or services and investment income; the total cost covers direct costs (such as raw material procurement and labor costs), indirect costs (such as management expenses and equipment depreciation), fixed costs (such as rent and equipment purchase) and variable costs (such as raw material consumption and wages calculated based on output). Summarize the various sources of revenue. Assuming that there are n sources of revenue, namely I 1 ,I 2 ,…,I n , the total revenue TI is: Add up all kinds of costs, that is, there are m types of cost categories, namely C 1 , C 2 ,…, C m , then the total cost TC is: The calculation formula for ROI is: Predict the net cash flow of the project in the future periods, including cash inflows and cash outflows. That is, the forecast period is T period, the net cash flow in period t is CF t , and the net present value NPV is calculated, that is, The value of the internal rate of return r is continuously adjusted through iteration so that the net present value NPV approaches zero, which is the required internal rate of return of the project. According to historical data and industry experience, the risk warning thresholds of the input-output ratio and the internal rate of return are set. When the ROI is lower than 10% or the internal rate of return is lower than the industry average, a risk warning is triggered. When the forecast result deviates from the expected range, an alarm is automatically issued to remind users to pay attention to potential risks, and an alarm message is automatically sent to relevant personnel to prompt possible risks.
最后,收集和整理领域知识和历史经验,包括以往的财务决策案例、成功和失败的项目经验、行业标准和最佳实践,对收集到的知识和经验进行分析和提炼,将其转化为明确的决策规则和条件,基于这些规则和条件,定义和管理规则集,设计情景模拟的输入界面,允许用户输入不同的市场条件参数(如市场增长率、竞争激烈程度、价格波动范围等)、政策环境参数(如税收政策变化、行业监管政策调整等)以及其他可能影响财务决策的假设条件,根据用户输入的假设条件,调用相应的模型和算法,模拟不同决策路径下的财务结果,包括收入、成本、利润、现金流等关键指标的变化,将模拟结果以清晰直观的方式呈现给用户,例如通过图表、数据表格等形式,帮助用户比较和评估不同决策策略的潜在风险和收益,规划界面的布局和功能分区,包括数据输入区、结果展示区、操作按钮,实现用户通过拖拽、点击等方式轻松配置分析参数,如选择要分析的财务指标、设定时间范围、选择数据来源,在结果展示区,实时呈现分析结果,使用户能够快速查看关键数据和分析结论,提供报告导出功能,支持生成多种格式(如PDF、Excel等)的报告,方便用户与团队成员或上级领导进行分享和讨论,将财务分析的结果输入到决策树或规则引擎中,根据预设的规则和条件进行推理和判断,自动生成个性化的财务决策建议,包括投资策略、筹资方案、成本控制措施、利润分配建议,例如,如果分析结果显示某个项目具有较高的潜力,但目前资金紧张,系统可能会建议采用合理的筹资方案来支持该项目的发展,对生成的决策建议进行合理性和可行性评估,确保其符合企业的实际情况和发展目标。Finally, collect and organize domain knowledge and historical experience, including previous financial decision-making cases, successful and failed project experiences, industry standards and best practices, analyze and refine the collected knowledge and experience, and transform them into clear decision-making rules and conditions. Based on these rules and conditions, define and manage rule sets, design scenario simulation input interfaces, and allow users to input different market condition parameters (such as market growth rate, competition intensity, price fluctuation range, etc.), policy environment parameters (such as tax policy changes, industry regulatory policy adjustments, etc.) and other assumptions that may affect financial decisions. Based on the assumptions entered by users, call corresponding models and algorithms to simulate financial results under different decision paths, including changes in key indicators such as revenue, cost, profit, and cash flow. Present the simulation results to users in a clear and intuitive manner, such as through charts, data tables, etc., to help users compare and evaluate the potential risks and benefits of different decision-making strategies, and plan the layout and functional divisions of the interface, including The data input area, result display area, and operation buttons enable users to easily configure analysis parameters by dragging and clicking, such as selecting financial indicators to be analyzed, setting time ranges, and selecting data sources. In the result display area, the analysis results are presented in real time, allowing users to quickly view key data and analysis conclusions. A report export function is provided, and support is provided for generating reports in multiple formats (such as PDF, Excel, etc.), which is convenient for users to share and discuss with team members or superiors. The results of financial analysis are input into the decision tree or rule engine, and reasoning and judgment are performed based on preset rules and conditions. Personalized financial decision recommendations are automatically generated, including investment strategies, financing plans, cost control measures, and profit distribution recommendations. For example, if the analysis results show that a project has high potential, but funds are currently tight, the system may recommend a reasonable financing plan to support the development of the project. The generated decision recommendations are evaluated for rationality and feasibility to ensure that they are in line with the actual situation and development goals of the enterprise.
综上所述,通过以上实施步骤,能够利用财务数据分析系统中的关系图谱构建与分析模块、项目资金投入与产出分析模块和决策支持与建议生成模块,实现对财务数据的深入分析和挖掘,为企业的财务决策提供科学依据,优化资源配置,降低风险,提升企业的竞争力和可持续发展能力。To sum up, through the above implementation steps, we can use the relationship map construction and analysis module, project capital investment and output analysis module and decision support and suggestion generation module in the financial data analysis system to achieve in-depth analysis and mining of financial data, provide a scientific basis for the company's financial decision-making, optimize resource allocation, reduce risks, and enhance the company's competitiveness and sustainable development capabilities.
对于本领域技术人员而言,显然本发明不限于上述示范性实施例的细节,而且在不背离本发明的精神或基本特征的情况下,能够以其他的具体形式实现本发明。因此,无论从哪一点来看,均应将实施例看作是示范性的,而且是非限制性的,本发明的范围由所附权利要求而不是上述说明限定,因此旨在将落在权利要求的等同要件的含义和范围内的所有变化囊括在本发明内。不应将权利要求中的任何附图标记视为限制所涉及的权利要求。It will be apparent to those skilled in the art that the invention is not limited to the details of the exemplary embodiments described above and that the invention can be implemented in other specific forms without departing from the spirit or essential features of the invention. Therefore, the embodiments should be considered exemplary and non-limiting in all respects, and the scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims rather than the foregoing description, and it is intended that all variations falling within the meaning and scope of the equivalent elements of the claims be included in the invention. Any reference numeral in a claim should not be considered as limiting the claim to which it relates.
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