CN118469302A - Liquid bulk cargo loading and unloading operation risk prediction method and system - Google Patents
Liquid bulk cargo loading and unloading operation risk prediction method and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of cargo management, and particularly discloses a liquid bulk cargo loading and unloading operation risk prediction method and system, which are used for solving the problems that the efficiency of pumping equipment is reduced and the risk of deformation and fracture of a storage tank is increased due to low port temperature in winter; according to the invention, the first data is imported into a temperature fluctuation value calculation formula through the first data, the second data and the third data, the temperature fluctuation value is calculated, the temperature fluctuation value and the second data are imported into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model, the pumping equipment stability value is calculated, whether the pumping equipment stability is qualified or not is judged, the pumping equipment stability value and the third data are imported into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model, the oil storage tank risk value is calculated, whether the oil storage tank is deformed and broken or not is judged, and the possibility of equipment damage and accident occurrence is reduced.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of cargo management, in particular to a liquid bulk cargo loading and unloading operation risk prediction method and system.
Background
The displacement of liquid bulk cargo in the port needs to pass through metering equipment, sampling equipment and loading and unloading equipment, but because of more liquid bulk cargo types, various cargo types have slightly different loading and unloading process schemes and flows because of different physical characteristics and chemical characteristics, wherein the loading and unloading process operation of the oil product port mainly comprises the following steps: the method comprises the steps of unloading a ship into a tank, loading the ship, directly taking the ship from the ship, and directly taking the ship from the vehicle to the ship. The ship unloading and tank loading operation mainly utilizes the pressure of a ship pump to unload, and the loaded oil product is directly sent into a harbor storage tank; the shipping operation pumps the oil product in the storage tank to the cabin by arranging a shipping pump; the ship-to-ship direct taking operation is that cargo oil filled in a ship is directly transported into an empty-load oil ship which is berthed in advance through a reasonable process flow; the car-ship direct taking operation directly loads the oil in the arrival railway tank car into the oil ship or directly loads the oil in the oil ship into the tank car through reasonable dispatching. The ship unloading and tank loading operation is the most common port liquid bulk cargo loading and unloading operation, and when the ship unloading and tank loading operation is performed, the storage tank capacity is limited, the storage tank needs to be stored in a plurality of storage tanks, the port temperature is low in winter, oil products are easy to coagulate, the fluidity of the oil products is reduced after the oil products coagulate, blockage can be formed in a pipeline, the oil products cannot be smoothly conveyed, and the pumping equipment is difficult to process the oil products with high viscosity or solidification, so that the efficiency of the pumping equipment is reduced; the condensed oil product may form a solid or high-viscosity layer inside the storage tank, which affects the normal flow of the oil product and the uniform distribution of the pressure in the storage tank, and may cause the partial pressure to be too high, thereby increasing the risk of deformation and fracture of the storage tank.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the defects in the prior art, the invention provides a risk prediction method and a system for liquid bulk cargo loading and unloading operation, which are used for calculating a temperature variation value, calculating a stable value of pumping equipment, judging whether the stability of the pumping equipment is qualified or not, calculating a risk value of an oil storage tank based on an oil storage tank risk value prediction model, judging whether the oil storage tank is in risk of deformation and fracture or not, and reducing the possibility of equipment damage and accidents, so as to solve the problems in the prior art.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the present invention provides the following technical solutions:
a liquid bulk cargo handling operation risk prediction method comprises the following steps:
S1, acquiring first data of the temperature of a port area and second data of pumping equipment during operation;
s2, obtaining third data of the oil storage tank;
S3, extracting first data, and importing the first data into a temperature fluctuation value calculation formula to calculate a temperature fluctuation value;
S4, extracting a temperature variation value and second data, and importing the temperature variation value and the second data into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model to calculate a pumping equipment stability value;
S5, extracting a pumping equipment stable value, comparing the pumping equipment stable value with a preset pumping equipment stable value, and if the pumping equipment stable value is greater than or equal to the preset pumping equipment stable value, judging that the pumping equipment stability is qualified; if the pumping equipment stability value is smaller than the preset pumping equipment stability value, the pumping equipment stability is not qualified, and a first alarm reminding is triggered;
S6, extracting a pumping equipment stable value, a pumping equipment stable value and third data, and importing the pumping equipment stable value, the pumping equipment stable value and the third data into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model to calculate an oil storage tank risk value;
S7, extracting a risk value of the oil storage tank, comparing the risk value of the oil storage tank with a preset risk value of the oil storage tank, and if the risk value of the oil storage tank is smaller than the preset risk value of the oil storage tank, avoiding deformation and fracture risk of the oil storage tank; if the risk value of the oil storage tank is greater than or equal to the preset risk value of the oil storage tank, the risk of deformation and rupture exists in the oil storage tank, and a second alarm is triggered to remind.
In S2, third data of the oil tank is obtained, where the third data includes a pressure change value and a temperature change value in the oil tank.
As a further scheme of the invention, the pressure change value in the oil storage tank in the third data is extracted at time intervals by setting the time intervals within the time period of conveying the oil by the oil storage tank, and the third data comprisesThe calculation formula of the pressure change value in the oil product storage tank at each time interval is as follows: Wherein: Is the first The pressure change value in the oil product storage tank at time intervals,Is the firstThe pressure value in the oil product storage tank at time intervals,Is the firstPressure values in the oil storage tank at intervals.
As a further scheme of the present invention, in S4, the temperature variation value and the second data are imported into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model, and the pumping equipment stability value is calculated, and the specific steps are as follows:
s41, extracting a temperature variation value, and extracting the real-time temperature of the oil product at the inlet and the outlet of the pumping equipment and the actual real-time delivery flow of the oil product at the outlet of the pumping equipment in second data;
S42, introducing the temperature variation value, the real-time temperature of the oil product at the inlet and the outlet of the pumping equipment and the actual real-time delivery flow of the oil product at the outlet of the pumping equipment into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model, and calculating the stability value of the pumping equipment, wherein the formula of the pumping equipment stability value calculation model is as follows:
；
Wherein: For the pumping device to be stable in value, For the duration of the operation of the pumping device,In order to obtain the temperature variation value,For the actual maximum delivery flow of oil at the outlet of the pumping device,Is thatThe oil product at the outlet of the pumping equipment is actually delivered at real time,For the actual maximum delivery flow of oil at the outlet of the pumping device,For inlet and outlet of pumping equipment the highest temperature of the oil product is at the position,Is thatInlet and outlet of instant pumping equipment the temperature of the oil product at the position,Is the lowest temperature of oil products at the inlet and the outlet of pumping equipment.
As a further scheme of the invention, in S6, the pumping equipment stable value and the third data are imported into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model to calculate the oil storage tank risk value, and the specific steps are as follows:
s61, extracting a pumping equipment stable value, and a pressure change value and a temperature change value in an oil product storage tank in third data;
S62, importing the pumping equipment stable value, the pressure change value and the temperature change value in the oil storage tank in the third data into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model, and calculating the oil storage tank risk value, wherein the oil storage tank risk value prediction model has the formula:
；
Wherein: Is the risk value of the oil product storage tank, For the pumping device to be stable in value,The length of time for conveying the oil product to the oil product storage tank,In order to obtain the temperature variation value,Is the maximum pressure variation value in the oil product storage tank,Is the firstThe pressure change value in the oil product storage tank at time intervals,Is the minimum pressure change value in the oil product storage tank,Is the maximum temperature change value in the oil product storage tank,Is the firstTemperature change values in the oil product storage tank at intervals,Is the minimum temperature change value in the oil product storage tank.
The liquid bulk cargo loading and unloading operation risk prediction system is used for realizing the liquid bulk cargo loading and unloading operation risk prediction method and comprises a data collection module, a temperature variation value calculation module, a pumping equipment stability analysis module, a storage tank risk prediction module, a first discrimination module and a second discrimination module; the data collection module is used for acquiring first data of the temperature of the port area, second data of pumping equipment in working and third data of the oil storage tank; the temperature fluctuation value calculation module is used for importing the first data into a temperature fluctuation value calculation formula to calculate a temperature fluctuation value; the pumping equipment stability analysis module is used for importing the temperature variation value and the second data into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model to calculate the pumping equipment stability value; the storage tank risk prediction module is used for guiding the pumping equipment stable value, the pumping equipment stable value and the third data into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model to calculate an oil storage tank risk value; the first judging module is used for judging whether the stability of the pumping equipment is qualified or not; the second judging module is used for judging whether the oil product storage tank has deformation and fracture risks or not.
The invention relates to a risk prediction method and a system for liquid bulk cargo loading and unloading operation, which have the technical effects and advantages that: according to the invention, the first data is imported into a temperature fluctuation value calculation formula through the first data, the second data and the third data, the temperature fluctuation value is calculated, the temperature fluctuation value and the second data are imported into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model, the pumping equipment stability value is calculated, whether the pumping equipment stability is qualified or not is judged, the possibility of equipment damage is reduced, and the service life of equipment is prolonged; and then the pumping equipment stability value, the pumping equipment stability value and the third data are imported into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model, the oil storage tank risk value is calculated, and whether the oil storage tank is deformed and broken risk is judged, so that possible risks can be identified and prevented in advance, the safety of the whole loading and unloading operation process is ensured, and leakage accidents caused by equipment faults or storage tank breakage are prevented.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a risk prediction method for a liquid bulk cargo handling operation according to embodiment 1 of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a risk prediction system for a bulk handling operation of a liquid according to embodiment 2 of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made in detail, but not necessarily with reference to the accompanying drawings. Based on the technical scheme in the invention, all other technical schemes obtained by a person of ordinary skill in the art without making creative work fall within the protection scope of the invention.
Example 1
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a risk prediction method for a liquid bulk cargo handling operation according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 1, a risk prediction method for a liquid bulk cargo handling operation in this embodiment includes the following steps:
S1, acquiring first data of the temperature of a port area and second data of pumping equipment during operation;
s2, obtaining third data of the oil storage tank;
S3, extracting first data, and importing the first data into a temperature fluctuation value calculation formula to calculate a temperature fluctuation value;
S4, extracting a temperature variation value and second data, and importing the temperature variation value and the second data into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model to calculate a pumping equipment stability value;
S5, extracting a pumping equipment stable value, comparing the pumping equipment stable value with a preset pumping equipment stable value, and if the pumping equipment stable value is greater than or equal to the preset pumping equipment stable value, judging that the pumping equipment stability is qualified; if the pumping equipment stability value is smaller than the preset pumping equipment stability value, the pumping equipment stability is not qualified, and a first alarm reminding is triggered;
S6, extracting a pumping equipment stable value, a pumping equipment stable value and third data, and importing the pumping equipment stable value, the pumping equipment stable value and the third data into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model to calculate an oil storage tank risk value;
S7, extracting a risk value of the oil storage tank, comparing the risk value of the oil storage tank with a preset risk value of the oil storage tank, and if the risk value of the oil storage tank is smaller than the preset risk value of the oil storage tank, avoiding deformation and fracture risk of the oil storage tank; if the risk value of the oil storage tank is greater than or equal to the preset risk value of the oil storage tank, the risk of deformation and rupture exists in the oil storage tank, and a second alarm is triggered to remind.
The first data is imported into a temperature fluctuation value calculation formula through the first data, the second data and the third data, the temperature fluctuation value is calculated, the temperature fluctuation value and the second data are imported into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model, the pumping equipment stability value is calculated, whether the pumping equipment stability is qualified or not is judged, the pumping equipment stability value and the third data are imported into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model, the oil storage tank risk value is calculated, whether the oil storage tank is deformed and broken or not is judged, and the possibility of equipment damage and accident occurrence is reduced.
In S1, acquiring first data of the temperature of a port area and second data of pumping equipment during operation; the first data comprise real-time environment temperature of a port area and oil temperature when not conveyed; the second data comprise real-time temperature of the oil product at the inlet and the outlet of the pumping equipment and actual real-time delivery flow of the oil product at the outlet of the pumping equipment.
The temperature of the oil product when not conveyed is measured by a temperature sensor; the real-time temperature of oil products at the inlet and the outlet of the pumping equipment is measured by installing a temperature sensor on a pipeline at the inlet and the outlet of the pumping equipment; the actual real-time delivery flow of the oil product at the outlet of the pumping equipment is measured by installing a flow meter at the inlet and outlet side pipelines of the pumping equipment.
In S2, third data of the oil storage tank are obtained, wherein the third data comprise pressure change values and temperature change values in the oil storage tank.
As a further scheme of the invention, the pressure change value in the oil storage tank in the third data is extracted at time intervals by setting the time intervals within the time period of conveying the oil by the oil storage tank, and the third data comprisesThe calculation formula of the pressure change value in the oil product storage tank at each time interval is as follows: Wherein: Is the first The pressure change value in the oil product storage tank at time intervals,Is the firstThe pressure value in the oil product storage tank at time intervals,Is the firstPressure values in the oil storage tank at intervals.
The temperature change value in the oil storage tank in the third data is extracted at time intervals by setting the time intervals in the period of delivering the oil from the oil storage tank to the oilThe calculation formula of the temperature change value in the oil product storage tank at each time interval is as follows: Wherein: Is the first Temperature change values in the oil product storage tank at intervals,Is the firstThe temperature value in the oil product storage tank at each time interval,Is the firstTemperature values in the oil storage tank at intervals.
In S3, extracting the real-time ambient temperature of the port area and the temperature of the oil product when not being transported in the first data, and introducing the real-time ambient temperature of the port area and the temperature of the oil product when not being transported into a temperature variation value calculation formula, and calculating the temperature variation value, wherein the formula of the temperature variation value calculation formula is as follows:
；
Wherein: In order to obtain the temperature variation value, For the period from the arrival of the oil at the port to the delivery to the oil storage tank,For the maximum real-time ambient temperature of the port area,Is in the harbor areaThe real-time ambient temperature at the moment in time,Is the minimum real-time ambient temperature of the port area,Is the maximum oil temperature when not in delivery,Is thatThe temperature of the oil product when not conveyed at any moment,Is the minimum oil temperature when not in delivery.
By calculating the real-time environmental temperature of the port area and the temperature change of the oil product when not conveyed, the temperature fluctuation can be accurately monitored, which is important for ensuring the stability of equipment and a storage tank, especially in winter with severe temperature change; through the calculation of the temperature variation value, possible risks can be identified and early-warned in advance, and when the temperature variation is too large, an alarm is sent out to prompt the taking of corresponding measures so as to prevent the pumping equipment and the storage tank from being damaged; through real-time monitoring and adjusting the operation parameters of the equipment, the high-efficiency operation of the pumping equipment can be maintained under the condition of temperature change, the efficiency reduction caused by the temperature change is avoided, and measures are taken in advance by calculating the temperature change value, so that the storage tank is prevented from being damaged under the condition of extreme temperature.
In S4, the temperature variation value and the second data are imported into a pumping equipment stable value calculation model, and the pumping equipment stable value is calculated, specifically comprising the following steps:
s41, extracting a temperature variation value, and extracting the real-time temperature of the oil product at the inlet and the outlet of the pumping equipment and the actual real-time delivery flow of the oil product at the outlet of the pumping equipment in second data;
S42, introducing the temperature variation value, the real-time temperature of the oil product at the inlet and the outlet of the pumping equipment and the actual real-time delivery flow of the oil product at the outlet of the pumping equipment into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model, and calculating the stability value of the pumping equipment, wherein the formula of the pumping equipment stability value calculation model is as follows:
；
Wherein: For the pumping device to be stable in value, For the duration of the operation of the pumping device,In order to obtain the temperature variation value,For the actual maximum delivery flow of oil at the outlet of the pumping device,Is thatThe oil product at the outlet of the pumping equipment is actually delivered at real time,For the actual maximum delivery flow of oil at the outlet of the pumping device,For inlet and outlet of pumping equipment the highest temperature of the oil product is at the position,Is thatInlet and outlet of instant pumping equipment the temperature of the oil product at the position,Is the lowest temperature of oil products at the inlet and the outlet of pumping equipment.
The system can dynamically calculate the stability of the pumping equipment by acquiring the temperature variation value and the operation data of the pumping equipment in real time; by calculating the stable value of the pumping equipment, identifying the potential risk in the running process of the equipment, and when the stable value is lower than a safety threshold, sending out early warning to prompt preventive maintenance and prevent equipment failure; by monitoring and analyzing the stable value of the pumping equipment, a manager can dynamically adjust the operation parameters of the equipment, so that the equipment is ensured to operate in an optimal state; the device can effectively prevent the efficiency of the device from being reduced due to temperature change and flow fluctuation, and can reduce the abrasion and failure frequency of the device and prolong the service life of the device by keeping the device to stably operate.
In S6, the pumping equipment stability value and the third data are imported into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model to calculate an oil storage tank risk value, and the specific steps are as follows:
s61, extracting a pumping equipment stable value, and a pressure change value and a temperature change value in an oil product storage tank in third data;
S62, importing the pumping equipment stable value, the pressure change value and the temperature change value in the oil storage tank in the third data into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model, and calculating the oil storage tank risk value, wherein the oil storage tank risk value prediction model has the formula:
；
Wherein: Is the risk value of the oil product storage tank, For the pumping device to be stable in value,The length of time for conveying the oil product to the oil product storage tank,In order to obtain the temperature variation value,Is the maximum pressure variation value in the oil product storage tank,Is the firstThe pressure change value in the oil product storage tank at time intervals,Is the minimum pressure change value in the oil product storage tank,Is the maximum temperature change value in the oil product storage tank,Is the firstTemperature change values in the oil product storage tank at intervals,Is the minimum temperature change value in the oil product storage tank.
By considering factors such as stability, temperature change, pressure in the storage tank and temperature change of the pumping equipment, comprehensive risk assessment is provided, and by calculating a risk value, when the risk value exceeds a set safety threshold, the system automatically gives out early warning, and precautionary measures can be taken in advance to prevent the storage tank from deforming, cracking or other accidents; based on the risk prediction result, a manager can dynamically adjust the operation parameters of the equipment and the storage tank, ensure safe and efficient operation, improve the utilization efficiency of the equipment and the storage tank, and prolong the service life; through accurate risk prediction and early warning, the safety of operators is protected, the occurrence of oil leakage environmental pollution events is prevented, and the environmental safety of port operation is ensured.
The liquid bulk cargo loading and unloading operation risk prediction system is used for realizing the liquid bulk cargo loading and unloading operation risk prediction method and comprises a data collection module, a temperature variation value calculation module, a pumping equipment stability analysis module, a storage tank risk prediction module, a first discrimination module and a second discrimination module; the data collection module is used for acquiring first data of the temperature of the port area, second data of pumping equipment in working and third data of the oil storage tank; the temperature fluctuation value calculation module is used for importing the first data into a temperature fluctuation value calculation formula to calculate a temperature fluctuation value; the pumping equipment stability analysis module is used for importing the temperature variation value and the second data into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model to calculate the pumping equipment stability value; the storage tank risk prediction module is used for guiding the pumping equipment stable value, the pumping equipment stable value and the third data into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model to calculate an oil storage tank risk value; the first judging module is used for judging whether the stability of the pumping equipment is qualified or not; the second judging module is used for judging whether the oil product storage tank has deformation and fracture risks or not.
The data collection module is connected with the temperature variation value calculation module, the temperature variation value calculation module is respectively connected with the pumping equipment stability analysis module and the storage tank risk prediction module, the pumping equipment stability analysis module is connected with the first discrimination module, and the storage tank risk prediction module is connected with the second discrimination module.
The first judging module comprises a first judging unit and a first alarm unit; the first judging unit is used for extracting a pumping equipment stable value, comparing the pumping equipment stable value with a preset pumping equipment stable value, and if the pumping equipment stable value is greater than or equal to the preset pumping equipment stable value, judging that the pumping equipment stability is qualified; if the pumping equipment stability value is smaller than the preset pumping equipment stability value, the pumping equipment stability is not qualified; the first alarm unit is used for triggering a first alarm reminding when the stability of the pumping equipment is unqualified.
The second judging module comprises a second judging unit and a second alarm unit; the second judging unit is used for extracting a risk value of the oil storage tank, comparing the risk value of the oil storage tank with a preset risk value of the oil storage tank, and if the risk value of the oil storage tank is smaller than the preset risk value of the oil storage tank, the risk of deformation and fracture of the oil storage tank does not exist; if the risk value of the oil storage tank is greater than or equal to the preset risk value of the oil storage tank, the risk of deformation and fracture exists in the oil storage tank; the second alarm unit is used for triggering a second alarm to remind when the oil product storage tank is at risk of deformation and rupture.
According to the embodiment of the invention, the first data is imported into a temperature variation value calculation formula through the first data, the second data and the third data, the temperature variation value is calculated, the temperature variation value and the second data are imported into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model, the pumping equipment stability value is calculated, whether the pumping equipment stability is qualified or not is judged, the possibility of equipment damage is reduced, and the service life of equipment is prolonged; and then the pumping equipment stability value, the pumping equipment stability value and the third data are imported into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model, so that the calculation of the oil storage tank risk value is performed, and whether the oil storage tank is in deformation and fracture risk is judged, so that the possible risk can be identified and prevented in advance, the safety of the whole loading and unloading operation process is ensured, the leakage accidents caused by equipment faults or storage tank fracture are prevented, the safety and the efficiency of the port liquid bulk cargo loading and unloading operation in winter are improved, the operation cost is reduced, and the operation safety is ensured.
The foregoing is merely illustrative of the present invention, and the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art will readily recognize that variations or substitutions are within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the protection scope of the claims.
Finally: the foregoing description is only of the preferred embodiments of the invention and is not intended to limit the invention to the particular embodiments disclosed, but on the contrary, the intention is to cover all modifications, equivalents, alternatives, and alternatives falling within the spirit and scope of the invention.
Claims (6)
1. The risk prediction method for the liquid bulk cargo loading and unloading operation is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
S1, acquiring first data of the temperature of a port area and second data of pumping equipment during operation;
s2, obtaining third data of the oil storage tank;
S3, extracting first data, and importing the first data into a temperature fluctuation value calculation formula to calculate a temperature fluctuation value;
S4, extracting a temperature variation value and second data, and importing the temperature variation value and the second data into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model to calculate a pumping equipment stability value;
S5, extracting a pumping equipment stable value, comparing the pumping equipment stable value with a preset pumping equipment stable value, and if the pumping equipment stable value is greater than or equal to the preset pumping equipment stable value, judging that the pumping equipment stability is qualified; if the pumping equipment stability value is smaller than the preset pumping equipment stability value, the pumping equipment stability is not qualified, and a first alarm reminding is triggered;
S6, extracting a pumping equipment stable value, a pumping equipment stable value and third data, and importing the pumping equipment stable value, the pumping equipment stable value and the third data into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model to calculate an oil storage tank risk value;
S7, extracting a risk value of the oil storage tank, comparing the risk value of the oil storage tank with a preset risk value of the oil storage tank, and if the risk value of the oil storage tank is smaller than the preset risk value of the oil storage tank, avoiding deformation and fracture risk of the oil storage tank; if the risk value of the oil storage tank is greater than or equal to the preset risk value of the oil storage tank, the risk of deformation and rupture exists in the oil storage tank, and a second alarm is triggered to remind.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein in S2, third data of the oil tank is obtained, and the third data includes a pressure change value and a temperature change value in the oil tank.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the third data is a third data, wherein the time interval is set for the duration of the oil tank to deliver the oil, and the third data is a third data, wherein the time interval is a time interval for extracting the pressure variation in the oil tankThe calculation formula of the pressure change value in the oil product storage tank at each time interval is as follows: Wherein: Is the first The pressure change value in the oil product storage tank at time intervals,Is the firstThe pressure value in the oil product storage tank at time intervals,Is the firstPressure values in the oil storage tank at intervals.
4. The method for predicting risk of bulk handling operation according to claim 1, wherein in S4, the temperature variation value and the second data are imported into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model to calculate a pumping equipment stability value, and the specific steps are as follows:
s41, extracting a temperature variation value, and extracting the real-time temperature of the oil product at the inlet and the outlet of the pumping equipment and the actual real-time delivery flow of the oil product at the outlet of the pumping equipment in second data;
S42, introducing the temperature variation value, the real-time temperature of the oil product at the inlet and the outlet of the pumping equipment and the actual real-time delivery flow of the oil product at the outlet of the pumping equipment into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model, and calculating the stability value of the pumping equipment, wherein the formula of the pumping equipment stability value calculation model is as follows:
；
Wherein: For the pumping device to be stable in value, For the duration of the operation of the pumping device,In order to obtain the temperature variation value,For the actual maximum delivery flow of oil at the outlet of the pumping device,Is thatThe oil product at the outlet of the pumping equipment is actually delivered at real time,For the actual maximum delivery flow of oil at the outlet of the pumping device,For inlet and outlet of pumping equipment the highest temperature of the oil product is at the position,Is thatInlet and outlet of instant pumping equipment the temperature of the oil product at the position,Is the lowest temperature of oil products at the inlet and the outlet of pumping equipment.
5. The method for predicting risk of liquid bulk cargo handling operation according to claim 1, wherein in S6, the pumping equipment stability value and the third data are imported into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model to calculate an oil storage tank risk value, and the specific steps are as follows:
s61, extracting a pumping equipment stable value, and a pressure change value and a temperature change value in an oil product storage tank in third data;
S62, importing the pumping equipment stable value, the pressure change value and the temperature change value in the oil storage tank in the third data into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model, and calculating the oil storage tank risk value, wherein the oil storage tank risk value prediction model has the formula:
；
Wherein: Is the risk value of the oil product storage tank, For the pumping device to be stable in value,The length of time for conveying the oil product to the oil product storage tank,In order to obtain the temperature variation value,Is the maximum pressure variation value in the oil product storage tank,Is the firstThe pressure change value in the oil product storage tank at time intervals,Is the minimum pressure change value in the oil product storage tank,Is the maximum temperature change value in the oil product storage tank,Is the firstTemperature change values in the oil product storage tank at intervals,Is the minimum temperature change value in the oil product storage tank.
6. A liquid bulk cargo handling operation risk prediction system for implementing a liquid bulk cargo handling operation risk prediction method according to any one of claims 1-5, characterized by comprising a data collection module, a temperature variation value calculation module, a pumping equipment stability analysis module, a storage tank risk prediction module, a first discrimination module and a second discrimination module; the data collection module is used for acquiring first data of the temperature of the port area, second data of pumping equipment in working and third data of the oil storage tank; the temperature fluctuation value calculation module is used for importing the first data into a temperature fluctuation value calculation formula to calculate a temperature fluctuation value; the pumping equipment stability analysis module is used for importing the temperature variation value and the second data into a pumping equipment stability value calculation model to calculate the pumping equipment stability value; the storage tank risk prediction module is used for guiding the pumping equipment stable value, the pumping equipment stable value and the third data into an oil storage tank risk value prediction model to calculate an oil storage tank risk value; the first judging module is used for judging whether the stability of the pumping equipment is qualified or not; the second judging module is used for judging whether the oil product storage tank has deformation and fracture risks or not.
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