CN116644571A - Numerical simulation method for water exchange process of river and lake system - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a numerical simulation method for a water exchange process of a river and lake system, which comprises the following steps: acquiring hydrologic variable history actual measurement data, and interpolating and arranging the hydrologic variable history actual measurement data; initializing a hydrologic variable time sequence, and simulating the lake water level by adopting a recursion method; based on a physical mechanism, establishing a relation among all hydrologic variables by adopting a statistical method, and carrying out simulation on the hydrologic variables to be solved; and correcting the simulation result of the hydrologic variable by adopting a system method. The invention improves the single-valued method on the basis of strictly adhering to the water balance principle, adopts the thought of combining a physical mechanism and a statistical method, improves the numerical simulation developed in the water exchange process of the river and lake system, and simultaneously reflects the changes of important processes of the river and lake system, such as river hydrodynamic process, lake drainage process, lake water level fluctuation and the like, so as to realize a plurality of targets in one work.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of hydrology, in particular to a numerical simulation method for a water exchange process of a river and lake system.
Background
The water volume exchange process in the river and lake system is the basis of hydrologic communication of the river and lake system, and is the basic power for exchanging and transporting substances and energy between rivers and lakes. Therefore, the research of the water quantity exchange process of the river and lake system is an important foundation for knowing the hydrologic communication mechanism of the river and lake, evaluating the influence of hydrologic change on the river and lake system and effectively managing the ecological service of the river and lake.
The research method of the river and lake water exchange process mainly comprises an observation method mainly comprising site measurement, isotope tracing and the like, and numerical simulation based on physical mechanism research and computer technology. The observation method can well acquire the time sequence of the hydrologic variable representing the water quantity exchange, but is difficult to evaluate the response relation of the water quantity exchange of the river and the lake to the environmental change. Therefore, numerical simulation of the river and lake water amount exchange process by adopting a numerical model is a main method for researching the river and lake water amount exchange process at present.
According to literature investigation, the numerical simulation of the current river and lake system water volume exchange process mainly uses a mechanism model and a statistical model. The mechanism model is developed and mature, and has a solid physical basis, but the algorithm determines that the calculation of the next time layer can be performed after the coefficient matrix is solved on any time layer, so that the calculation efficiency is low. The statistical model is represented by a machine learning model, has good simulation accuracy and calculation efficiency, is not tightly combined with a physical mechanism, has unclear solving logic, and is difficult to carry out iterative improvement according to a simulation result.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above-mentioned drawbacks of the prior art, an object of the present invention is to provide a numerical simulation method for a water exchange process of a river and lake system, which improves a single-valued method on the basis of strictly adhering to a water balance principle, adopts a concept of combining a physical mechanism and a statistical method, improves numerical simulation performed on the water exchange process of the river and lake system, and simultaneously reflects changes of important processes of the river and lake system, such as a river hydrodynamic process, a lake drainage process, a lake water level fluctuation, etc., so as to achieve a plurality of objectives in one job.
Therefore, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
according to a first aspect of the invention, there is provided a method for numerical simulation of a water exchange process of a river and lake system, the method comprising:
acquiring hydrologic variable history actual measurement data, and interpolating and arranging the hydrologic variable history actual measurement data;
initializing a hydrologic variable time sequence, and simulating the lake water level by adopting a recursion method;
based on a physical mechanism, establishing a relation among all hydrologic variables by adopting a statistical method, and carrying out simulation on the hydrologic variables to be solved;
and correcting the simulation result of the hydrologic variable by adopting a system method.
According to a second aspect of the present invention, there is provided a river and lake system water volume exchange process numerical simulation apparatus, the apparatus comprising:
the data acquisition module is configured to acquire the hydrologic variable history actual measurement data and interpolate and sort the hydrologic variable history actual measurement data;
the water level simulation module is configured to initialize a hydrologic variable time sequence and simulate the lake water level by adopting a recursion method;
the hydrologic variable simulation module is configured to establish the connection among all hydrologic variables by adopting a statistical method based on a physical mechanism and simulate the hydrologic variables to be solved;
and the correction module is configured to adopt a system method to correct the simulation result of the hydrologic variable.
According to a third aspect of the present invention there is provided a non-transitory computer readable storage medium storing instructions which, when executed by a processor, perform a river and lake system water volume exchange process numerical simulation method as described above.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. the invention provides and practices a new numerical simulation thought combining a physical mechanism and a statistical method, and has clear solving logic while carrying out numerical simulation on the river and lake water quantity exchange process efficiently and accurately, thereby being convenient for upgrading and iteration.
2. The method is beneficial to combining the advantages of the mechanism model and the statistical model, and can help solve the problems of low mechanism model calculation efficiency, unclear statistical model solving logic and difficult upgrading iteration when simulating the river and lake water quantity exchange process.
3. The invention realizes the effective series connection of the river and lake systems in the process of simulating the water exchange of the river and lake systems, and can provide sufficient data and proper hydrologic boundary conditions for the research of the hydrodynamic process of rivers and lakes and the development of the change of the water ecological system.
Drawings
In the drawings, which are not necessarily drawn to scale, like numerals may describe similar components in different views. The same reference numerals with letter suffixes or different letter suffixes may represent different instances of similar components. The accompanying drawings illustrate various embodiments by way of example in general and not by way of limitation, and together with the description and claims serve to explain the inventive embodiments. Wherever possible, the same reference numbers will be used throughout the drawings to refer to the same or like parts. Such embodiments are illustrative and not intended to be exhaustive or exclusive of the present apparatus or method.
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a numerical simulation method of a water exchange process of a river and lake system according to an embodiment of the invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a Yangtze river-lake system and a main monitoring station according to an embodiment of the invention.
FIG. 3 is a graph comparing results and observations from a day scale simulation of the flow (up) and water level (down) of a lake outlet station in 1989-2016 according to an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 4 is a graph comparing accuracy and computational efficiency of a day scale simulation of the flow and water level of a 1989-2016 lake outlet station with an existing numerical model, in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 5 is a comparison of results and observations from a day scale simulation of the water level of a star substation in 1989-2016 according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 6 is a block diagram of a numerical simulation device for the water exchange process of a river and lake system according to an embodiment of the invention.
FIG. 7 is another block diagram of a numerical simulation device for the water exchange process of a river and lake system according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The following examples are given for the purpose of better illustration only, but the invention is not limited to the examples. Those skilled in the art will appreciate from the foregoing disclosure that various modifications and adaptations of the embodiments described herein can be made to other examples without departing from the scope of the invention.
The invention will now be further described with reference to the accompanying drawings.
As shown in fig. 1, the embodiment of the invention provides a numerical simulation method for a water exchange process of a river and lake system, which comprises the following steps:
step 1, collecting hydrologic variable history actual measurement data, and interpolating and arranging the data:
the Yangtze river-Poyang lake system comprises Poyang lake and Yangtze river-Jiujiang river-Octariver section, as shown in figure 2. The Yanghu receives river water from the river basin (commonly called as five river water from the river) mainly through five branches of Ganjiang, fu river, xinjiang, shui, and around the lake outlet station, and then enters the Yangtze river. The flow of the water coming from the five rivers is mainly monitored by 7 monitoring stations such as the Mingjin, wanjiao, extrance, li Gudu, meihong, tiger mountain, and the like. The main monitoring stations in the Yanghu lake area are star substations, city stations, kang Shan stations, poyang stations, wu Cheng stations and the like. The water volume exchange process between the Yangtze river and the Poyang lake is mainly characterized by water level and flow measured by the lake outlet station, wherein the lake outlet station flow represents drainage of the Poyang lake to the Yangtze river, and the lake outlet station water level represents the water level at the connecting point of the Yangtze river and the Poyang lake. The incoming water flow of the Yangtze river main flow is characterized by the flow measured by the Jiujiang station.
Assuming that numerical simulation is required for the Yangtze river-Poyang lake water volume exchange process in 1989-2016, day 1 in 1989 to day 31 in 2016 (1) the day scale flow data measured by 7 monitoring stations such as Qianjin, wanjiao, extrani, li Gudu, meihong, hushan, dufeng, etc. (2) the day scale water level data measured by stations such as a star station, a Duchang station, kang Shan station, a Poyang station, wu Cheng station, etc. (3) the day scale water level and flow data measured by a lake outlet station, and (4) the day scale flow data measured by a Jiujiang station can be collected. Because of the space difference of the water level of the Poyang lake in the lake region, the average value of the water level of the Poyang lake in the daily scale measured by 5 monitoring stations such as a star substation, a city station, a Kang Shan station, a Poyang station, a Wu Cheng station and the like can be obtained to represent the water level of the Poyang lake in the daily scale. In addition, the flow of the water coming from the five rivers can be properly corrected according to the annual change of the document or the water level of the Poyang lake so as to represent the influence of hydrologic factors such as evaporation, precipitation, interval inflow and the like which influence the water balance of the lake on the water balance of the Poyang lake and realize the basic balance of the water balance of the lake.
Step 2, initializing a hydrologic variable time sequence, and simulating the lake water level by adopting a recursion method:
at the ith time interval, the Poyang lake level (Z) is obtained from the historical measured data or simulation results p ) Corrected five river water flow (Q) pin ) Flow rate of water coming from Yangtze river (Q) j ) Isohydrologic variables. Wherein on the ith temporal layerThe water level of the Yangguan is changed from the water level of the Yangguan to the water level of the Yangguan at the (i-1) th time interlayer (delta Z p ) And (3) obtaining the rest hydrologic variable from the historical actual measurement data according to a recursive algorithm shown in the equation (1).
Z p(i) ＝Z p(i-1) +ΔZ p(i-1) (1)
In the calculation of the first time horizon of the numerical simulation method proposed in this study, the observed lake outlet station flow (Q h ) And inputting the corrected flow of the coming water of the five rivers and the measured flow of the Jiujiang station into a model. In the calculation of the rest time layers, the lake outlet station flow and the Poyang lake water level obtained by the simulation of the last time layer, and the corrected five river water flow and the flow measured by the nine river station obtained by observation are adopted.
Step 3, based on a physical mechanism, establishing a relation among all hydrologic variables by adopting a statistical method, and carrying out simulation on the hydrologic variables to be solved:
after the time series of the hydrologic variables are initialized, a single-valued method (fall index method) is improved, and the correlation relation of each hydrologic variable is determined on the basis of a physical mechanism. The modified single-valued method modifies the basic form (equation 2) of the single-valued method (fall index method) to equation (3).
Q down /(Z up -Z down ) a ＝q (2)
Q down ＝f(Z up ,Z down ) (3)
Wherein Q is down Is the flow rate of the downstream section of the river channel, Z up And Z down Is the flow of the upstream and downstream sections of the river channel, a is the drop index, q is the corrected flow, and f is the function with undetermined form. It can be seen that equation (3) is an approximation form obtained by mathematical processing on the basis of equation (2), so that f in equation (3) may be a form of a quadratic function for simplifying the calculation. Since there is often a certain correlation between the water level and the flow rate in the river channel, the water level in equation (3) may be replaced with the flow rate in an appropriate scenario.
Constructing the correlation among all the hydrologic variables in the Yangtze river system by using an equation (3), and obtaining the following equation set after deduction and inspection:
wherein Z is h Is the daily scale water level of the exit of a lake, Q h1 And Q h2 Is two algorithms for calculating the flow of the lake outlet station through deduction. Coefficient C in equation (4, 5, 6) 1 、C 2 、C 3 、a 1 、b 1 、c 1 、d 1 、e 1 、a 2 、b 2 、c 2 、d 2 、e 2 、f 2 、g 2 、h 2 、a 3 、b 3 、c 3 、d 3 、e 3 、f 3 And g 3 All are experience coefficients, and are determined by a least square method based on historical actual measurement hydrologic data. Z is Z p Poyang lake level, Q j Is the flow of water coming from Yangtze river, Q pin The flow of the water coming from the five rivers after correction; firstly, according to equation (4), calculating the flow of the outlet station according to a first algorithm, then according to equation (5), calculating the water level of the outlet station, and finally according to equation (6), calculating the flow of the outlet station again according to a second algorithm, so as to obtain a more accurate simulation result. It can be seen that equations (4-6) strictly adhere to the water balance principle, the mathematical form of the links between the hydrographic variables is determined by deduction, and these links are quantified using the least squares method, so the simulation method proposed by the present invention achieves a combination of physical mechanisms and statistical methods.
Step 4, adopting a system method to correct the simulation result of the hydrologic variable:
the empirical coefficients used in equations (4, 5, 6) depend on the hydrologic data, and there is a hidden danger of overfitting, which may cause numerical divergence of the simulation results. The numerical divergence of the simulation result can be prevented by adopting a system method, namely, the simulation result of the hydrologic variable to be solved is corrected by adopting the historical actual measurement hydrologic variable of the Yangtze river-lake system:
Q h1c ＝f(Q h1 ,g(Q j ,Z p ))＝C 4 +a 4 Q h1 +b 4 Q j +c 4 Z p +d 4 Q j 2 +e 4 Z p 2 +f 4 Q j Z p (7)
Q h2c ＝f(Q h2 ,g(Q j ,Q pin ))＝C 5 +a 5 Q h2 +b 5 Q j +c 5 Q pin +d 5 Q j 2 +e 5 Q pin 2 +f 5 Q j Q pin (8)
wherein Q is h1c And Q h2c The lake outlet station flow is obtained by correcting the simulation results obtained by the first method and the second method, and the function g in the equations (7 and 8) is a correction function. Coefficient C in equation (7, 8) 4 、C 5 、a 4 、b 4 、c 4 、d 4 、e 4 、f 4 、a 5 、b 5 、c 5 、d 5 、e 5 And f 5 And obtaining the empirical coefficient through a least square method according to the historical actual measured water level data. And (3) correcting the lake outlet station flow simulation result obtained by the equation (4) by adopting the observed nine-river station flow and the simulated Poyang lake water level in the equation (7), and then inputting the corrected lake outlet station flow simulation result into the equation (5). And (3) correcting the lake outlet station flow simulation result obtained in the equation (6) by adopting the observed Jiujiang station flow and Wuhe seven-port incoming water flow in the equation (8).
Fig. 3 shows the results obtained by carrying out simulation on the daily scale flow and the water level of the lake outlet station in the 1989-2016 period according to the technical scheme of the invention. The simulation result well reproduces the daily scale change trend of the water level and the flow of the lake outlet station, and the numerical divergence phenomenon does not occur in the daily scale simulation for 28 years, which shows that the method provided by the invention can effectively reflect the long-term daily scale change of the water quantity exchange process of the Yangtze river-Poyang lake.
To further illustrate the advantages of the proposed method, we compare the accuracy of the results of the lake outlet station water level and flow simulation between 1989 and 2016, and the computational efficiency of the proposed method with popular mechanism models and statistical models, as shown in fig. 4. W represents simulation accuracy and calculation efficiency of the method provided by the invention; B. c, E, L, M the simulation accuracy of artificial neural network model (statistical model), CHAM model (mechanism model), EFDC model (mechanism model), long-short-term instantaneous memory model (statistical model), MIKE21 model (mechanism model); the "mechanical" and "systematic" words represent the best simulation efficiencies achieved by the mechanism model and the statistical model, respectively. Compared with the popular model, the method provided by the invention has the advantage of superior simulation accuracy and great advantage in terms of calculation efficiency. In addition, the novel numerical model relied on by the invention has clear solving logic, and the problem that the statistical model is difficult to iteratively improve is avoided.
Step 5, simulating the lake water level variation according to the water balance principle, returning to the step 2, and re-developing the calculation flow until the simulation work is completed:
the variable amount of the water level of the Poyang lake in the ith time layer can be regarded as a function of the water balance DeltaV of the Poyang lake and the water level of the Poyang lake. The water balance of the Poyang lake on the ith time layer is mainly determined by the Poyang lake drainage (outlet station flow) and the corrected five river inflow flow, so that the water balance of the Poyang lake and the Poyang lake level can be assumed to have a correlation as shown in the equation (9). In the equation (9), V represents the water storage capacity of the Poyang lake, C 6 、a 6 、b 6 The free coefficient is determined by the user by trial calculation or searching the literature on the basis of meeting the basic characteristics of the correlation between the lake water level and the water storage capacity. Thus, the change of the water level of the yang lake and the water level of the yang lake can be simulated on the ith time interlayer through equation (9), and the (i+1) th time interlayer can be obtained through recursive calculationPoyang lake water level on the time layer. And then returning to the step 2, the calculation is restarted on the (i+1) th time layer until the simulation work is completed.
In the example, the simulation of the water level of the Poyang lake day scale was carried out in 1989-2016 according to the technical scheme of the invention, and the result is shown in figure 5. Because the current scientific research and administration are more using the water level of the star substation to represent the water level of the Poyang lake, in the invention, in the calculation example, the average value of the water levels measured by 5 monitoring stations in the Poyang lake area is changed into the water level of the star substation, but the form and coefficient determining method of the equation (4-9) are unchanged.
As shown in figure 5, the simulation result well reproduces the daily scale variation trend of the water level of the star substation, and the numerical divergence phenomenon does not occur in the daily scale simulation for 28 years, which shows that the method provided by the invention is effective and can well reproduce the long-term daily scale fluctuation of the water level of the Poyang lake.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a numerical simulation device for the water exchange process of the river and lake system, as shown in fig. 6, the device comprises:
a data acquisition module 601 configured to acquire hydrographic variable history measured data and interpolate and sort the hydrographic variable history measured data;
the water level simulation module 602 is configured to initialize a hydrologic variable time sequence and simulate the lake water level by adopting a recursion method;
the hydrologic variable simulation module 603 is configured to establish a relation between each hydrologic variable by adopting a statistical method based on a physical mechanism, and perform simulation on the hydrologic variable to be solved;
the correction module 604 is configured to correct the simulation result of the hydrologic variable by adopting a system method.
In some embodiments, the water level simulation module is further configured to:
on the ith temporal layer, fromObtaining hydrologic variables from historical actual measurement data or simulation results of the hydrologic variables, wherein the hydrologic variables comprise the water level Z of the Poyang lake p Corrected flow rate Q of water coming from five rivers pin Flow rate Q of water coming from Yangtze river j ；
The Poyang lake water level on the ith time layer is obtained by the Poyang lake water level and Poyang lake water level variation on the (i-1) th time layer according to a recursive algorithm shown in a formula (1), and the rest hydrologic variables are obtained from the hydrologic variable history actual measurement data;
Z p(i) ＝Z p(i-1) +ΔZ p(i-1) (1)
wherein Z is p(i) Represents the water level of the Poyang lake on the ith time layer, Z p(i-1) Represents the Poyang lake water level, ΔZ, at the (i-1) th time layer p(i-1) Representing the water level variation of the Poyang lake on the (i-1) th time layer;
in the calculation of the first time horizon, the observed lake outlet station flow Q is adopted h And inputting the corrected five river water flow and the measured flow of the Jiujiang station into a model, and adopting the lake outlet station flow and the Poyang lake water level obtained by simulation of the previous time layer and the observed corrected five river water flow and the measured flow of the Jiujiang station in the calculation of the rest time layers.
In some embodiments, the hydrographic variable simulation module is further configured to:
after initializing the time sequence of the hydrologic variables, improving a single-valued method, and determining the correlation of each hydrologic variable on the basis of a physical mechanism;
the basic form of the improved single-valued method is expressed as
Q down ＝f(Z up ,Z down ) (3)
Wherein Q is down Is the flow rate of the downstream section of the river channel, Z up And Z down Is the flow of the upstream and downstream sections of the river channel, f is a function with undetermined form;
constructing the correlation among all the hydrologic variables in the Yangtze river system by using an equation (3), and obtaining the following equation set:
wherein Z is h Is the daily scale water level of the exit of a lake, Q h1 And Q h2 Is obtained by two methods of calculating the flow of the lake outlet station through deduction, namely a first method and a second method, C 1 、C 2 、C 3 、a 1 、b 1 、c 1 、d 1 、e 1 、a 2 、b 2 、c 2 、d 2 、e 2 、f 2 、g 2 、h 2 、a 3 、b 3 、c 3 、d 3 、e 3 、f 3 And g 3 Are all experience coefficients, and are determined by adopting a least square method based on historical actual measurement hydrologic data, Z p Poyang lake level, Q j Is the flow of water coming from Yangtze river, Q pin The flow of the water coming from the five rivers after correction;
firstly, calculating the flow of the outlet station according to the first method according to the equation (4), then calculating the water level of the outlet station according to the equation (5), and finally, calculating the flow of the outlet station again according to the second method according to the equation (6).
In some embodiments, the correction module is further configured to:
correcting a simulation result of a hydrologic variable to be solved by adopting a historical actual measurement hydrologic variable of a Yangtze river-Poyang lake system:
Q h1c ＝f(Q h1 ,g(Q j ,Z p ))＝C 4 +a 4 Q h1 +b 4 Q j +c 4 Z p +d 4 Q j 2 +e 4 Z p 2 +f 4 Q j Z p (7)
Q h2c ＝f(Q h2 ,g(Q j ,Q pin ))＝C 5 +a 5 Q h2 +b 5 Q j +c 5 Q pin +d 5 Q j 2 +e 5 Q pin 2 +f 5 Q j Q pin (8)
wherein Q is h1c And Q h2c The lake outlet station flow obtained by correcting the simulation results obtained by the first and second methods, the function g in equations (7) and (8) is a correction function, C 4 、C 5 、a 4 、b 4 、c 4 、d 4 、e 4 、f 4 、a 5 、b 5 、c 5 、d 5 、e 5 And f 5 Are experience coefficients, and are obtained through a least square method according to historical actual measured water level data;
correcting the lake outlet station flow simulation result obtained by the equation (4) by adopting the observed nine-river station flow and the simulated Poyang lake water level in the equation (7), and inputting the lake outlet station flow simulation result into the equation (5);
and (3) correcting the lake outlet station flow simulation result obtained in the equation (6) by adopting the observed Jiujiang station flow and Wuhe seven-port incoming water flow in the equation (8).
In some embodiments, as shown in fig. 7, the apparatus further includes a repeating operation module 605, the repeating operation module 605 being configured to simulate the lake water level variation according to the water balance principle, reinitialize the hydrologic variable time sequence, and simulate the lake water level by a recursion method; based on a physical mechanism, establishing a relation among all hydrologic variables by adopting a statistical method, and carrying out simulation on the hydrologic variables to be solved; and (3) correcting the simulation result of the hydrologic variable by adopting a system method until the simulation work is completed.
In some embodiments, the repetition operation module is further configured to:
regarding the variation of the Poyang lake water level in the ith time zone as a function of the Poyang lake water level balance DeltaV and the yang lake water level, the yang lake water level balance in the ith time zone is determined by Poyang lake water discharge and corrected five river inflow flow, assuming that the Poyang lake water level balance and the yang lake water level have a correlation as shown in equation (9):
wherein V represents Poyang lake water storage capacity, C 6 、a 6 、b 6 Is a free coefficient;
simulating the Poyang lake water level and the Poyang lake water level variation on the ith time layer through an equation (9), then obtaining the Poyang lake water level on the (i+1) th time layer through recursive calculation, reinitializing a hydrologic variable time sequence, and simulating the lake water level by adopting a recursive method; based on a physical mechanism, establishing a relation among all hydrologic variables by adopting a statistical method, and carrying out simulation on the hydrologic variables to be solved; and (3) correcting the simulation result of the hydrologic variable by adopting a system method until the simulation work is completed.
It should be noted that, the numerical simulation device for the water volume exchange process of the river and lake system provided in this embodiment and the numerical simulation method for the water volume exchange process of the previous river and lake system belong to the same technical thought, which can have the same beneficial effects, and are not repeated here.
Embodiments of the present invention also provide a non-transitory computer readable storage medium storing instructions which, when executed by a processor, perform the river and lake system water volume exchange process numerical simulation method of any of the embodiments above.
The above embodiments are only for illustrating the technical solution of the present invention, and not for limiting the same; although the invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical scheme described in the foregoing embodiments can be modified or some or all of the technical features thereof can be replaced by equivalents; such modifications and substitutions do not depart from the spirit of the invention, and are intended to be included within the scope of the appended claims and description.
Claims (10)
1. A method for numerical simulation of a river and lake system water exchange process, the method comprising:
acquiring hydrologic variable history actual measurement data, and interpolating and arranging the hydrologic variable history actual measurement data;
initializing a hydrologic variable time sequence, and simulating the lake water level by adopting a recursion method;
based on a physical mechanism, establishing a relation among all hydrologic variables by adopting a statistical method, and carrying out simulation on the hydrologic variables to be solved;
and correcting the simulation result of the hydrologic variable by adopting a system method.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the initializing the time series of hydrographic variables comprises simulating the lake water level by recursion, and the method comprises:
at the ith time layer, obtaining the hydrologic variable from the hydrologic variable history measured data or simulation result, wherein the hydrologic variable comprises the water level Z of the Poyang lake p Corrected flow rate Q of water coming from five rivers pin Flow rate Q of water coming from Yangtze river j ；
The Poyang lake water level on the ith time layer is obtained by the Poyang lake water level and Poyang lake water level variation on the (i-1) th time layer according to a recursive algorithm shown in a formula (1), and the rest hydrologic variables are obtained from the hydrologic variable history actual measurement data;
Z p(i) ＝Z p(i-1) +ΔZ p(i-1) (1)
wherein Z is p(i) Represents the water level of the Poyang lake on the ith time layer, Z p(i-1) Represents the Poyang lake water level, ΔZ, at the (i-1) th time layer p(i-1) Representing the water level variation of the Poyang lake on the (i-1) th time layer;
in the calculation of the first time horizon, the observed lake outlet station flow Q is adopted h After correctionThe flow of the water coming from the five rivers and the flow measured by the Jiujiang station are input into a model, and in the calculation of the rest time layers, the lake outlet flow and the Poyang lake water level obtained by simulation of the last time layer are adopted, and the corrected flow of the water coming from the five rivers and the flow measured by the Jiujiang station are obtained through observation.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein the establishing a connection between the hydrologic variables by using a statistical method based on a physical mechanism, performing simulation on the hydrologic variables to be solved, specifically includes:
after initializing the time sequence of the hydrologic variables, improving a single-valued method, and determining the correlation of each hydrologic variable on the basis of a physical mechanism;
the basic form of the improved single-valued method is expressed as
Q down ＝f(Z up ,Z down ) (3)
Wherein Q is down Is the flow rate of the downstream section of the river channel, Z up And Z down Is the flow of the upstream and downstream sections of the river channel, f is a function with undetermined form;
constructing the correlation among all the hydrologic variables in the Yangtze river system by using an equation (3), and obtaining the following equation set:
wherein Z is h Is the daily scale water level of the exit of a lake, Q h1 And Q h2 Is obtained by two methods for calculating the flow of the lake outlet station through deductionC is the first method and the second method respectively 1 、C 2 、C 3 、a 1 、b 1 、c 1 、d 1 、e 1 、a 2 、b 2 、c 2 、d 2 、e 2 、f 2 、g 2 、h 2 、a 3 、b 3 、c 3 、d 3 、e 3 、f 3 And g 3 Are all experience coefficients, and are determined by adopting a least square method based on historical actual measurement hydrologic data, Z p Poyang lake level, Q j Is the flow of water coming from Yangtze river, Q pin The flow of the water coming from the five rivers after correction;
firstly, calculating the flow of the outlet station according to the first method according to the equation (4), then calculating the water level of the outlet station according to the equation (5), and finally, calculating the flow of the outlet station again according to the second method according to the equation (6).
4. A method according to claim 3, wherein the step 3, adopting a systematic method, corrects the simulation result of the hydrologic variable, specifically includes:
correcting a simulation result of a hydrologic variable to be solved by adopting a historical actual measurement hydrologic variable of a Yangtze river-Poyang lake system:
Q h1c ＝f(Q h1 ,g(Q j ,Z p ))＝C 4 +a 4 Q h1 +b 4 Q j +c 4 Z p +d 4 Q j 2 +e 4 Z p 2 +f 4 Q j Z p (7)
Q h2c ＝f(Q h2 ,g(Q j ,Q pin ))＝C 5 +a 5 Q h2 +b 5 Q j +c 5 Q pin +d 5 Q j 2 +e 5 Q pin 2 +f 5 Q j Q pin (8)
wherein Q is h1c And Q h2c Is the lake outlet station flow obtained by correcting the simulation results obtained by the first and second methods, and the function g in equations (7) and (8) isCorrection function, C 4 、C 5 、a 4 、b 4 、c 4 、d 4 、e 4 、f 4 、a 5 、b 5 、c 5 、d 5 、e 5 And f 5 Are experience coefficients, and are obtained through a least square method according to historical actual measured water level data;
correcting the lake outlet station flow simulation result obtained by the equation (4) by adopting the observed nine-river station flow and the simulated Poyang lake water level in the equation (7), and inputting the lake outlet station flow simulation result into the equation (5);
and (3) correcting the lake outlet station flow simulation result obtained in the equation (6) by adopting the observed Jiujiang station flow and Wuhe seven-port incoming water flow in the equation (8).
5. The method of claim 4, wherein after taking systematic approach to correct the simulation result of the hydrographic variable, the method further comprises:
simulating the lake water level variation according to the water balance principle, reinitializing the hydrologic variable time sequence, and simulating the lake water level by adopting a recursion method; based on a physical mechanism, establishing a relation among all hydrologic variables by adopting a statistical method, and carrying out simulation on the hydrologic variables to be solved; and (3) correcting the simulation result of the hydrologic variable by adopting a system method until the simulation work is completed.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the lake water level variation is simulated according to the water balance principle, the hydrologic variable time sequence is reinitialized, and the lake water level is simulated by adopting a recursion method; based on a physical mechanism, establishing a relation among all hydrologic variables by adopting a statistical method, and carrying out simulation on the hydrologic variables to be solved; the simulation result of the hydrologic variable is corrected by adopting a system method until the simulation work is completed, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
regarding the variation of the Poyang lake water level in the ith time zone as a function of the Poyang lake water level balance DeltaV and the yang lake water level, the yang lake water level balance in the ith time zone is determined by Poyang lake water discharge and corrected five river inflow flow, assuming that the Poyang lake water level balance and the yang lake water level have a correlation as shown in equation (9):
wherein V represents Poyang lake water storage capacity, C 6 、a 6 、b 6 Is a free coefficient;
simulating the Poyang lake water level and the Poyang lake water level variation on the ith time layer through an equation (9), then obtaining the Poyang lake water level on the (i+1) th time layer through recursive calculation, reinitializing a hydrologic variable time sequence, and simulating the lake water level by adopting a recursive method; based on a physical mechanism, establishing a relation among all hydrologic variables by adopting a statistical method, and carrying out simulation on the hydrologic variables to be solved; and (3) correcting the simulation result of the hydrologic variable by adopting a system method until the simulation work is completed.
7. A river and lake system water volume exchange process numerical simulation device, characterized in that the device comprises:
the data acquisition module is configured to acquire the hydrologic variable history actual measurement data and interpolate and sort the hydrologic variable history actual measurement data;
the water level simulation module is configured to initialize a hydrologic variable time sequence and simulate the lake water level by adopting a recursion method;
the hydrologic variable simulation module is configured to establish the connection among all hydrologic variables by adopting a statistical method based on a physical mechanism and simulate the hydrologic variables to be solved;
and the correction module is configured to adopt a system method to correct the simulation result of the hydrologic variable.
8. The apparatus of claim 7, wherein the water level simulation module is further configured to:
at the ith temporal layer, history from hydrologic variables is realAcquiring hydrologic variables from the measured data or simulation results, wherein the hydrologic variables comprise the water level Z of the Yanghu p Corrected flow rate Q of water coming from five rivers pin Flow rate Q of water coming from Yangtze river j ；
The Poyang lake water level on the ith time layer is obtained by the Poyang lake water level and Poyang lake water level variation on the (i-1) th time layer according to a recursive algorithm shown in a formula (1), and the rest hydrologic variables are obtained from the hydrologic variable history actual measurement data;
Z p(i) ＝Z p(i-1) +ΔZ p(i-1) (1)
wherein Z is p(i) Represents the water level of the Poyang lake on the ith time layer, Z p(i-1) Represents the Poyang lake water level, ΔZ, at the (i-1) th time layer p(i-1) Representing the water level variation of the Poyang lake on the (i-1) th time layer;
in the calculation of the first time horizon, the observed lake outlet station flow Q is adopted h And inputting the corrected five river water flow and the measured flow of the Jiujiang station into a model, and adopting the lake outlet station flow and the Poyang lake water level obtained by simulation of the previous time layer and the observed corrected five river water flow and the measured flow of the Jiujiang station in the calculation of the rest time layers.
9. The apparatus of claim 7, further comprising a repeating operation module configured to simulate the lake water level variation according to the water balance principle, reinitialize the hydrologic variable time series, and simulate the lake water level by recursion; based on a physical mechanism, establishing a relation among all hydrologic variables by adopting a statistical method, and carrying out simulation on the hydrologic variables to be solved; and (3) correcting the simulation result of the hydrologic variable by adopting a system method until the simulation work is completed.
10. A non-transitory computer readable storage medium storing instructions which, when executed by a processor, perform the method of any one of claims 1 to 6.
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| CN113011685A (en) * | 2021-04-27 | 2021-06-22 | 黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司 | Simulation prediction method for water level change of inland lake in runoff data-free area |
| CN115640762A (en) * | 2022-07-21 | 2023-01-24 | 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所 | Lake basin hydrological model WATLAC-E construction method and construction system |
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| US20190354873A1 (en) * | 2018-02-16 | 2019-11-21 | Lucas Pescarmona | Analysis system and hydrology management for basin rivers |
| CN113011685A (en) * | 2021-04-27 | 2021-06-22 | 黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司 | Simulation prediction method for water level change of inland lake in runoff data-free area |
| CN115640762A (en) * | 2022-07-21 | 2023-01-24 | 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所 | Lake basin hydrological model WATLAC-E construction method and construction system |
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