CN115169724A - Runoff prediction method based on space-time graph convolutional neural network - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a runoff prediction method based on a space-time graph convolutional neural network. Firstly, a time sequence data set for researching inner diameter flow and influence elements of the inner diameter flow of the drainage basin is collected and constructed, then a convolutional neural network model structure is designed according to an inner water system topological structure of the drainage basin, and finally a runoff prediction model based on a space-time graph convolutional neural network is obtained through training. The model can predict the runoff of the existing hydrological site and can also predict the runoff of any section (virtual site) on a river in a flow domain.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of hydrology and water resources, and particularly relates to a runoff prediction method based on a space-time graph convolutional neural network.
Background
At present, domestic and foreign runoff prediction research is mainly focused on areas with abundant site observation data, the areas generally have high-density hydrometeorology observation stations, and observation data of hydrometeorology elements are relatively detailed. Therefore, a hydrological model or a data driving model can be constructed according to historical data, and then runoff of each site is predicted. The hydrological model is a mathematical model for describing the change trend of runoff, such as a rainfall-runoff model, a VIC model and the like, by exploring the physical mechanism of runoff formation. The data driving model is mainly a black box model constructed by mining the statistical relationship between the influence factors and the runoff. In recent years, the rapid development of deep learning in time series processing methods provides the possibility of accurate runoff prediction, especially long-short term memory networks (LSTM). LSTM is mainly composed of an input gate, a forgetting gate and an output gate, and by these gate control units, LSTM can control the flow of information, i.e., the input and output of information flow and the state of cell unit (Memory cell), selectively input, output and memorize important information. The prediction accuracy of the method depends on a large amount of observation data, and only the runoff of a single hydrological site is focused on prediction.
In practical situations, the number of the hydrometeorology stations in the drainage basin is small and uneven, and the hydrometeorology observation data is in short supply; the hydrological stations of upstream and downstream and main and branch streams in the basin are mutually influenced, and the hydrological regime of the whole basin is formed together. When the existing method is applied in a data-deficient area, the performance of the model is often greatly reduced and even fails due to limited data. In addition, the existing method focuses on runoff prediction of a single hydrological site, and correlation among different hydrological sites in a flow domain is not mined. Under the background, how to fully utilize limited observation data to perform accurate runoff prediction of a full watershed is very important.
Therefore, a method for predicting runoff by using a space-time graph convolutional neural network is provided. The graph neural network model treats the runoff data as graph data for processing. Graph data is composed of nodes, which may possess different attributes, and edges, which represent relationships between nodes. Corresponding to the runoff forecasting task, hydrological stations (including virtual stations without data) are graph nodes, factors (precipitation, air temperature and the like) influencing the runoff are node attributes, connecting lines among the hydrological stations are edges, and the runoff flow direction is the direction of the edges. Accordingly, a symbolic graph neural network may be constructed. The graph neural network can not only mine the time mode of the nodes during training, but also mine the space mode among the nodes through the neighbor nodes, and more accurate runoff prediction is made.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art, provides a runoff prediction method based on a space-time graph convolutional neural network, overcomes the defect that the prior art cannot fully utilize the existing data, and can remarkably improve the runoff prediction precision.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the runoff prediction method based on the space-time graph convolutional neural network is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) And collecting observation data of each meteorological station and each hydrological station in the drainage basin, wherein the observation data comprises runoff data of the hydrological stations and meteorological data influencing runoff, such as precipitation, air temperature, water surface evaporation and the like.
(2) Data preprocessing, counting data collected by each site, and completing missing values, wherein the magnitude of input data is larger in difference sometimes, and the input data is normalized by adopting a dispersion normalization method, wherein a conversion formula is as follows:
wherein X * The normalized data is in the range of [0,1]X is the original data, X max Maximum value of the original data, X min Is the minimum of the raw data.
(3) And establishing a space-time graph convolution neural network model. The deep network is mainly divided into three parts, namely time convolution is firstly carried out, and a TCN (time domain convolution) network is used for extracting time characteristics; secondly, a graph convolution neural network models the path flow in a time sequence through a GCN network and outputs the path flow at each moment; finally, a full-connection network is used for converting the multidimensional state vector of the graph neural network coding into the runoff at each moment; the other activation functions use the exponential linear activation function GLU, and the activation function of the last layer uses the linear activation function linear.
(4) And (5) training a model. And dividing the labeled data into a training set and a test set, inputting a model by using the training set for training, using a square root error for a loss function, using an adam optimizer for an optimizer, and performing multiple iterations to fit and optimize the model.
(5) And testing on the test set by using the trained model, and evaluating the prediction result according to the real data.
The object of the invention is thus achieved.
The invention utilizes a deep learning algorithm and adopts a runoff prediction method based on a space-time graph convolutional neural network. Firstly, collecting influence characteristics related to runoff in a flow area, then constructing a time sequence data set with characteristics and runoff quantity corresponding to each other, obtaining a runoff prediction model based on a space-time graph convolution neural network through training, and predicting the subsequent runoff quantity according to the obtained runoff prediction model. Meanwhile, considering that the GCN ignores certain time characteristics when paying attention to the space characteristics, the time convolution is added to extract the time characteristics first, so that the capability of the model for capturing the effective time characteristics is improved, and the prediction precision is higher. In addition, the deep learning method driven by data is used, the dependence on the hydrological physical mechanism in the basin is reduced, and the application range of the model is effectively expanded.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of the structure of the graph convolution module and the temporal convolution module;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of the deep neural network model structure of the present invention.
Detailed Description
Specific embodiments of the present invention are described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings so that those skilled in the art can better understand the present invention. It is to be expressly noted that in the following description, a detailed description of known functions and designs will be omitted when it may obscure the subject matter of the present invention.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of an embodiment of a runoff prediction method based on a space-time graph convolutional neural network according to the present invention.
In this embodiment, as shown in fig. 1, a runoff prediction method based on a space-time graph convolutional neural network of the present invention includes the following steps:
s1: watershed data collection
Collecting hydrological observation data (river runoff quantity is actually measured day by day on the section of an outlet of a watershed) in a runoff and data of influence factors closely related to the runoff; factors closely related to runoff include: daily precipitation, air temperature, water surface evaporation, etc.
S2: data pre-processing
In the implementation process, the collected original data may have the problem of data missing, some interpolation methods such as linear interpolation, spline regression, nearest neighbor replacement and the like can be used to complement the missing data, and in addition, because the input data are different types of data, the orders of magnitude of which are sometimes different, the input data are normalized by a dispersion normalization method, and the conversion formula is as follows:
wherein, X * The normalized data is in the range of [0,1]X is the original data, X max Maximum value of the raw data, X min Is the minimum of the raw data.
S3: establishing a space-time diagram convolution neural network model
The model consists of three parts, namely time convolution, extraction of characteristics in a time step-by-time mode through strong characteristics of TCN (transmission control network), and output at each moment; for data of a single node, the TCN structure is shown in fig. 2, where the input of each layer is the output of the previous layer at 2 time instants, the entire TCN utilizes the structure of a 1-D FCN (full convolution) network, and the input and the output of each hidden layer have the same time length and maintain the same time step. In order to effectively acquire the long-time dependency, expansion causal convolution is utilized, a expansion factor (expansion factor) is introduced, and for the TCN with a dimension = [1,2,4], the structure is as shown in fig. 2, the number of convolutions of each layer is unchanged, but the next layer performs convolution expansion, that is, the time when the next layer participates in the convolution is expanded, and the expansion factor is generally 2 to the power of exponent.
Secondly, constructing an adjacency matrix A by using the connection relation between nodes, and taking the output of time sequence data of each node as the input of a graph neural node after the time sequence data of each node passes through TCN (transmission control network), as shown in FIG. 3; performing high-order feature extraction on a spatial domain of graph structure data by using a graph convolution neural network, wherein a graph convolution formula is as follows:
Θ* g x＝UΘ(Λ)U T x
wherein x is a signal, the kernel Θ is a diagonal matrix,
(I n is an identity matrix, D is a degree matrix, Λ is a diagonal matrix consisting of eigenvalues of the graph laplacian matrix L).
And (3) approximating a Chebyshev polynomial and a first-order polynomial, and normalizing D to obtain a final graph convolution:
and theta is a sharing parameter of the graph core.
The output layer is a common fully-connected feedforward neural network and is used for converting the multidimensional state vector coded by the graph neural network into the runoff at each moment and finally reducing the dimension of an output result;
s4: model training
Firstly, dividing data into a training set and a testing set, wherein the training set is used for training a model and determining weight parameters of each layer, and the testing set is used for evaluating the prediction precision of a final model;
when a training set is used for inputting a model for training, firstly, the weight of each layer of the model is initialized according to an initialization method, then, data are input, the output of the model is obtained through calculation in the prior art, then, the loss is calculated according to a loss function and a real label, wherein the loss function uses a square root error, the weight of each layer is updated through gradient back propagation, the model is fitted and optimized through gradient descent and multiple iterations, and an adam optimizer is used by an optimizer, and finally, a trained space-time diagram convolutional neural network model is obtained;
s5: runoff prediction
Inputting data of a test set into the model, predicting the runoff, and evaluating a prediction result according to an evaluation method to verify the rationality of the model; the evaluation function is as follows,
nash efficiency coefficient NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe):
relative error RE:
wherein,
the measured value of the runoff is shown,
representing a runoff predicted value, wherein t represents the t-th moment;
in practical application, according to a basin, the runoff at a certain future moment can be predicted according to the current input after the model is trained;
the invention provides a runoff prediction method based on a time-space diagram convolutional neural network, aiming at the defects in the traditional runoff prediction method. The invention makes innovation on the key technologies of utilizing spatial characteristics, using deep learning and the like.
Although illustrative embodiments of the present invention have been described above to facilitate the understanding of the present invention by those skilled in the art, it should be understood that the present invention is not limited to the scope of the embodiments, and various changes may be made apparent to those skilled in the art as long as they are within the spirit and scope of the present invention as defined and defined by the appended claims, and all matters of the invention which utilize the inventive concepts are protected.
Claims (2)
1. A runoff prediction method based on a space-time graph convolutional neural network is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) And collecting observation data of each meteorological station and each hydrological station in the drainage basin, wherein the observation data comprises runoff data of the hydrological stations and meteorological data influencing runoff, such as precipitation, air temperature, water surface evaporation and the like.
(2) The data preprocessing, the data collected by each site are counted, missing values are complemented, the input data are normalized by a dispersion standardization method due to the fact that the magnitude of the input data is larger sometimes, and the conversion formula is as follows:
wherein X * The normalized data is in the range of [0,1]X is the original data, X max Maximum value of the original data, X min Is the minimum of the raw data.
(3) And establishing a space-time diagram neural network model. The deep network is mainly divided into three parts, namely time convolution is firstly carried out, and TCN (time domain convolution) network is used for extracting time characteristics; secondly, a graph convolution neural network models the path flow in a time sequence through a GCN network and outputs the path flow at each moment; finally, the full-connection network converts the multidimensional state vector of the graph neural network coding into the runoff at each moment; the other activation functions use the exponential linear activation function GLU, and the activation function of the last layer uses the linear activation function linear.
(4) And (5) training a model. And dividing the labeled data into a training set and a testing set, inputting the training set into a model for training, using a square root error for a loss function, using an adam optimizer for an optimizer, and performing multiple iterations to fit and optimize the model.
(5) And testing on the test set by using the trained model, and evaluating the prediction result according to the real data.
2. A runoff predicting method according to claim 1 wherein, in step (3), said space-time diagram neural network model, and in step (4), said neural network model trains:
2.1 The model mainly comprises three parts, namely time convolution is firstly carried out, characteristics are extracted in a time-stepping mode through the strong characteristics of TCN, and output is carried out at each moment; for data of a single node, the TCN structure is shown in fig. 2, where the input of each layer is the output of the previous layer at 2 time instants, the entire TCN utilizes a structure of a 1-D FCN (full convolution) network, and the time length of the input and the output of each hidden layer are the same, and the same time step is maintained. In order to effectively acquire the long-time dependency, expansion causal convolution is utilized, a expansion factor (expansion factor) is introduced, and for the TCN with a dimension = [1,2,4], the structure is as shown in fig. 2, the number of convolutions of each layer is unchanged, but the next layer performs convolution expansion, that is, the time when the next layer participates in the convolution is expanded, and the expansion factor is generally 2 to the power of exponent.
Secondly, constructing an adjacency matrix A by using the connection relation between sites, and taking the output of time sequence data of each node as the input of a graph neural node after the time sequence data of each node passes through TCN (transmission control network), as shown in FIG. 3; performing high-order feature extraction on a spatial domain of graph structure data by using a graph convolution neural network, wherein a graph convolution formula is as follows:
Θ* g x＝UΘ(Λ)U T x
wherein x is a signal, the kernel Θ is a diagonal matrix,
(I n is an identity matrix, D is a degree matrix, Λ is a diagonal matrix consisting of eigenvalues of the graph laplacian matrix L).
And (3) approximating a Chebyshev polynomial and a first-order polynomial, and normalizing D to obtain a final graph convolution:
theta is the shared parameter of the graph core.
The output layer is a common fully-connected feedforward neural network and is used for converting the multidimensional state vector coded by the graph neural network into the runoff at each moment and finally reducing the dimension of an output result;
2.2 Firstly, dividing data into a training set and a test set, wherein the training set is used for training the model, determining weight parameters of each layer, and the test set is used for evaluating the prediction precision of the final model;
the model training process comprises the following steps: initializing the weight of each layer of the model according to an initialization method, inputting data, performing time convolution TCN on the data of each node to obtain a time sequence hidden vector feature input graph neural network, and inputting the output multi-dimensional hidden vector feature into a full connection layer for dimensionality reduction to obtain a final runoff. And calculating the loss of the output obtained by forward calculation according to a loss function and a real label, wherein the loss function uses a square root error, the weight of each layer is updated by gradient back propagation, the model is fitted and optimized through gradient descent for multiple iterations, and the optimizer uses an adam optimizer to finally obtain the trained spatiotemporal neural network model.
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| CN117151285A (en) * | 2023-08-29 | 2023-12-01 | 淮阴工学院 | Runoff forecasting method based on multi-element attention space-time diagram convolutional network |
| CN117273465A (en) * | 2023-11-15 | 2023-12-22 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Risk transfer method for cascade hydropower junction group |
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| CN115654381A (en) * | 2022-10-24 | 2023-01-31 | 电子科技大学 | Water supply pipeline leakage detection method based on graph neural network |
| CN116484275A (en) * | 2023-04-17 | 2023-07-25 | 中南大学 | Aluminum electrolysis anode effect monitoring method based on self-adaptive space-time diagram convolutional neural network |
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