CN104750895B - Real-time city emergency evacuation emulation method and system based on cell phone data - Google Patents
Real-time city emergency evacuation emulation method and system based on cell phone data Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A kind of real-time city emergency evacuation emulation method based on cell phone data, including：1）GIS map information is obtained using GIS map information subsystem；2）The information computing staff's real-time distribution information obtained using personnel's real-time distribution excavation subsystem by cell phone data combination GIS map information subsystem；3）After determining Disasters Type, rank and disaster-stricken geographical position, judge that subsystem delimit Dispersal Point as proprietary evacuation terminal using devastated；4）GIS map information, personnel's real-time distribution information and the disaster area judging information obtained using evacuation emulation subsystem more than, computing staff evacuate path and personnel's dispersal plan.The present invention draws population development distributed point by mobile communication data digging method.Such a method is combined with urban-evacuation simulation, obtains the population situation in whole city before evacuation occurs.Science, the accuracy of urban-evacuation simulation result are ensure that, and the dispersal plan decision-making for after provides effective foundation.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to city emergency to evacuate field, and particularly a kind of real-time city emergency based on cell phone data is dredged
Dissipate emulation mode and system.
Background technology
Emergency evacuation analogue system is mainly simulated under certain emergency situations（Natural calamity or man-made disaster）, big rule
The evacuation scene of mould crowd.It is intended to simulate the situation under truth, and then various different situations are predicted,
And reasonable evacuation planning is proposed accordingly, help reduces caused loss after disaster occurs.This mode is drilled with traditional fire-fighting
Habit mode is compared, it is possible to reduce manpower financial capacity loses, and can carry out on broader region.
The content that traditional emergency evacuation is related to mainly includes congested link personnel's traffic guide, ambulance, emergent thing
The methods of granting of money, exit signs guideboard, short message guide evacuation.
Shortcomings be present in traditional emergency evacuation method：Input data --- the population distribution of conventional evacuation emulation system
Data, the consensus data of static state is all based on greatly.The statistics is general just to be carried out once for a long time, such as 5 years.It is but existing
Fast and intercity movement of population for social development is big, also various artificial statistical errors, causes the statistics general
It is larger with actual conditions difference.In addition, in reality, the distribution of population is a dynamic process.When morning, on white collar
Class, student go to school, and before rest of returning at night, they are also possible to other place and participate in recreation.It is whole at this
During individual, their positional information is all to change.When disaster occurs, they are not very likely in the premises of oneself.Institute
With, if only simply using static state consensus data as evacuation emulation data foundation, this clearly lose science according to
According to.
The content of the invention
An object of the present invention is to provide a kind of real-time city emergency evacuation emulation method based on cell phone data.
To reach the object of the invention, this real-time city emergency evacuation emulation method based on cell phone data, including
Following steps：
1）GIS map information is obtained using GIS map information subsystem, wherein GIS map information will including urban geography
Element and factor-factor relationship information；
2）Subsystem is excavated using personnel's real-time distribution to obtain by cell phone data combination GIS map information subsystem
Information computing staff's real-time distribution information；
3）After determining Disasters Type, rank and disaster-stricken geographical position, judge that subsystem delimit Dispersal Point using devastated
As proprietary evacuation terminal；
4）Evacuation emulation subsystem：GIS map information, personnel's real-time distribution information and the disaster region obtained more than
Judge information, computing staff evacuates path and personnel's dispersal plan.
Preferably, in addition to dispersal plan generation is with issuing subsystem, for the result for calculating evacuation emulation subsystem
Generate optimal dispersal plan and issue.
Preferably, in addition to three-dimensional rendering subsystem, for the preferred plan of generation to be rendered into threedimensional model.
Preferably, the geographic element includes road, building, mountain region, lake, river；Factor-factor relationship information is by institute
There is road junction to be considered as a point, all roads are all adjacent 2 points of lines.
Preferably, every road gives a weights according to load capacity, forms topological path figure.
Preferably, personnel's real-time distribution excavation subsystem acquisition personnel's real-time distribution information is：Make by life, work
The breath time was divided into multiple periods by one day, count within some period in respective regions the time of librarian use mobile phone,
Position and corresponding cell-phone number, the data of the same time period are overlapped using some days as a cycle, obtain some
The real-time distribution information of period personnel.Further, the cycle is seven days.
Preferably, the devastated judges contour of the subsystem in disaster-stricken geographical position and respective regions GIS
Come the actual devastated of preliminary judgement, then choose several non-devastateds of wherein area maximum again as safe escape point.
Preferably, the evacuation emulation subsystem will be simulated personnel's real-time distribution information of acquisition by area people structure
There are corresponding age, psychological condition for each personnel.
It is a further object of the invention to provide a kind of real-time city emergency evacuation emulation system based on cell phone data
System, including following subsystem：
GIS map information subsystem：For obtaining GIS map information, including urban geography key element and factor-factor relationship letter
Breath；
Personnel's real-time distribution excavates subsystem：The letter obtained by cell phone data combination GIS map information subsystem
Cease computing staff's real-time distribution information；
Devastated judges subsystem：After determining Disasters Type, rank and disaster-stricken geographical position, Dispersal Point delimited as institute
The evacuation terminal of someone；
Evacuation emulation subsystem：GIS map information, personnel's real-time distribution information and the disaster region obtained more than is sentenced
Disconnected information, computing staff evacuate path and personnel's dispersal plan.
Preferably, in addition to dispersal plan generation is with issuing subsystem, for the result for calculating evacuation emulation subsystem
Generate optimal dispersal plan and issue.
Preferably, in addition to three-dimensional rendering subsystem, for the preferred plan of generation to be rendered into threedimensional model.
Preferably, the geographic element includes road, building, mountain region, lake, river；Factor-factor relationship information is by institute
There is road junction to be considered as a point, all roads are all adjacent 2 points of lines.
Preferably, every road gives a weights according to load capacity, forms topological path figure.
Preferably, personnel's real-time distribution excavation subsystem acquisition personnel's real-time distribution information is：Make by life, work
The breath time was divided into multiple periods by one day, count within some period in respective regions the time of librarian use mobile phone,
Position and corresponding cell-phone number, the data of the same time period are overlapped using some days as a cycle, obtain some
The real-time distribution information of period personnel.Further, the cycle is seven days.
Preferably, the devastated judges contour of the subsystem in disaster-stricken geographical position and respective regions GIS
Come the actual devastated of preliminary judgement, then choose several non-devastateds of wherein area maximum again as safe escape point.
Preferably, the evacuation emulation subsystem will be simulated personnel's real-time distribution information of acquisition by area people structure
There are corresponding age, psychological condition for each personnel.
Beneficial effect：The present invention show that the population development in each region in city is distributed by mobile communication data digging method
Point.Such a method is combined with urban-evacuation simulation, obtains the population situation in whole city before evacuation occurs, this data are dug
The data that pick method obtains are more accurate, reliable, and simulated operation cost is low, workable, can repeatedly simulate and add
With checking, to obtain and the immediate result of True Data.Fundamentally ensure that urban-evacuation simulation result science,
Accuracy, and the dispersal plan decision-making for after provides effective foundation.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is evacuation emulation systematic schematic diagram of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is that the present invention staff's real-time distribution excavates subsystem work schematic diagram.
Fig. 3 is that devastated of the present invention judges subsystem work schematic diagram.
Fig. 4 is evacuation emulation subsystem work schematic diagram of the present invention.
Fig. 5 is dispersal plan generation of the present invention and issue subsystem work schematic diagram.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing embodiment to the real-time city emergency evacuation emulation method of the present invention and system furtherly
It is bright.
Nowadays the occupation rate of mobile phone has reached higher level, can courageously introduce mobile communication position data solution accordingly
Certainly the problem of consensus data.Although method there is no precisely to judge everyone particular location, by mobile communication
Probability statistics and change in location the trend characteristic research of position data, will can draw the characteristic distributions in different periods population.
Existing emergency evacuation analogue system is all based on greatly AI（Artificial intelligence Artificial Intelligence).It is this
The advantage of method is can to simulate some characteristics of single personnel to greatest extent（Such as, age, personality, sex etc. because these because
Element will influence the evacuation speed of personnel and the correct ability for judging outlet）.
Topological path is planned：It is all a point to assume that all road junctions, passes through line a little（Road in practice
Road）Connect, all lines are linked to be a topology network architecture.To Agent（Intelligent body, that is, evacuate object）Set starting point
After terminal, pass through mathematical method（A*, dynamically distributes etc.）Agent specific path is calculated, Agent is transported along to fixed line
It is dynamic, eventually arrive at safe evacuation terminal.This step is repeated, is finished until all Agent paths all calculate.
During evacuation, the method for taking AI, according to Agent individual behavior and characteristic, such as age, sex, body
The factors such as body, psychologic status, the evacuation speed and visual range of single intelligent body are determined, these characteristics are most at last by influenceing people
（Intelligent body）The process of emulation evacuation is influenceed etc. mode.To reach simulated effect most true to nature.
In Agent from during a road circuit node reaches another road circuit node, due to surrounding environment（It is static and
Dynamic barrier）Change, such as situations such as personnel's congestion, building stop, intelligent body will be caused to take different measure, such as reduced
Speed, change direction etc..
The system will be based on above basic procedure and deploy.It mainly further refines and optimized in some key positions,
To reach more preferable effect.
As shown in figure 1, the real-time city emergency evacuation emulation method of the invention based on cell phone data, including following step
Suddenly：
1）Utilize GIS（GIS-Geographic Information System, Geographic Information System abbreviation, can be soft in GIS
The map datum shown on part, it is the map vector that free interactive operation can be carried out under computer system support）Map is believed
Cease subsystem and obtain GIS map information, wherein information includes urban geography key element and factor-factor relationship information, such as road（Street
Road）, building, mountain region, lake, river etc.；By all roads in map（Street）Junction is considered as a point, and all roads are all
It is adjacent 2 points of line.
2）Subsystem is excavated using personnel's real-time distribution to obtain by cell phone data combination GIS map information subsystem
Information computing staff's real-time distribution information；Wherein cell phone data be mainly in some region people using mobile phone when
Between, geographical position（The data are obtained by the base station location and wifi network nearest from mobile phone, and accuracy can reach ten meters
Left and right）And corresponding phone number.Here different people is distinguished using phone number as ID, and is thus analyzed, root
Their rule of life information is excavated according to their service condition.
Specifically, as shown in Fig. 2 first by all mobile communication data, i.e. phone number and GPS location when using
After carrying out validity preliminary treatment etc. data, all data were overlapped according to the time of one week（One can also be used
The moon is as a cycle）, so as to draw the trip rule of crowd in one week.Such as in a city people's weekend it is favorite go out
Row place, and the data such as ratio of trip；Then after data are divided according to working day and day off, according still further to daily life
Living, working time section is divided, and data investigation is carried out on each period.When being wherein classified into evening rest daily
Between, three sections of playtime and working time, draw the trip rule of areal different periods people.Also rule accordingly,
Divide different zones type.For example, people may sleep when evening, this when, the people of residential quarter was more, so late
Upper people it is more should be residential quarter.People may be on duty when daytime, then the population for block of writing is more, then should
Region is exactly block of writing.If the time of having a rest or weekend of dusk, the public place of entertainment or residential quarter population then can be more；Connect
, after finding out the trip rule of people, representative region statistics is analyzed, the type in the region is thus judged, is
Residential quarter or shopping centre etc., and this data of area type are corresponded to the region that each base station is covered；Finally,
To all different zones, population distribution feature data mining is carried out respectively, draws different zones arbitrary period population distribution feature.
Accordingly, with reference to the statistics of stationary population data in the city, any time period, the total population of any base station region are drawn.This
It is exactly our real-time dynamic population's distributed data.Prompting is needed exist for, mobile phone uses data and the quantity of de facto population
There is certain difference, this can be analyzed according to traditional demographics and actual mobile phone using data, mobile phone is made data
Preferably combine with de facto population, such as, the number that actual count population and the region cellular base station count in certain region
According to ratio, analyzed with reference to multiple areas cases, obtaining mobile phone makes the corresponding data of data and de facto population.
3）Judge that subsystem delimit Dispersal Point as proprietary evacuation terminal using devastated.Referring to Fig. 3, before this from
Relevant departments obtain type, the rank that disaster occurs（Intensity）And geographical position, such as flood, tsunami, the disaster of earthquake type
During generation, reselection corresponding module, that is, the processing mode of different natural calamities is tackled, is simulated with specific disaster generation module
Devastated is generated, the information provided with reference to GIS map information subsystem, mainly according in disaster-stricken point and respective regions GIS
Contour comes the actual devastated of preliminary judgement, then chooses the maximum several non-devastateds of wherein area again and is dredged as safety
Scatterplot（The Dispersal Point is the Dispersal Point in initial planning）.Devastated can also be subjected to zonule division according to base station location,
Evacuation destination area data delimited further according to zonule.
4）GIS map information, personnel's real-time distribution information and the disaster obtained using evacuation emulation subsystem more than
Area judging information, computing staff evacuate path and personnel's dispersal plan.As shown in Figure 4, it is assumed that everyone is one
The self attributes such as individual intelligent body, each intelligent body has age, psychological condition, these will all have influence on their maximum evacuation speed
Degree.Wherein safe escape region is exactly the terminal of intelligent body, and each intelligent body has the terminal of oneself, and it is by according to road below
Footpath planning algorithm determines.During intelligent body evacuation emulation, intelligent body need consider with other intelligent bodies, also hinder
Hinder the relation between thing.Intelligent body cannot pass through barrier, and measures to keep clear is taken when other intelligent bodies are run into.Road is very
When narrow people is a lot, it can be got congestion between intelligent body, now there is part intelligent body to select to detour away.The above is all
Set evacuation rule in this programme.The road in city is visualized as a network topology structure for having weight in the present embodiment.
Every road is connected, the crossing among point i.e. reality, every road has oneself as single line between line and line by putting
Corresponding load capacity, load capacity are added on every line as a weights.The present embodiment takes Network Maximal-flow algorithm, comes
Global optimization path planning is carried out, it allows all intelligent bodies to be arrived with most fast speed while road load ability is considered
Up to terminal, it can be deduced that evacuating personnel terminal and path in the main crossroads density of personnel situation of different time sections and each zonule
Corresponding data.Compared to A* shortest path firsts, this algorithm is global optimum, and it can take into account overall evacuation efficiency, compared with
It is good to solve the problems, such as mass data caused by evacuation.
According to information presented above, and further calculate, most generate optimal case at last for disaster prevention and control decision-making,
The present embodiment method also provides dispersal plan generation and issue subsystem, for the result generation for calculating evacuation emulation subsystem
Optimal dispersal plan and issue.As shown in figure 5, the moment occurred in disaster, sends personnel in each zonule by base station and dredges
Dissipate the evacuation director information such as terminal and path（Terminal and specific routing information）, to the individual in its overlay area, such as using short
Letter mode；Such as, according to the main crossroads density of personnel situation of different time sections, artificial traffic is set according to density of personnel situation
Guide, mainly carried out in populous main intersection, can also be in base station coverage cell domain main crossroads designer
Transport vehicle and quantification；The result according to caused by evacuation emulation（The population and its density of each evacuation land）Setting is rescued
Protect car quantity etc..In addition, for the apparent final dispersal plan for visually showing output, present invention additionally comprises three-dimensional rendering
System, for the preferred plan of generation to be rendered into threedimensional model, it can further improve the work effect of disaster prevention and control headquarter
Rate.
A kind of real-time city emergency evacuation emulation system based on cell phone data can also be obtained accordingly, such as Fig. 1 institutes
Show, the emulation includes following subsystem：
GIS map information subsystem 1：For obtaining GIS map information, including urban geography key element and factor-factor relationship letter
Breath；
Personnel's real-time distribution excavates subsystem 2：The letter obtained by cell phone data combination GIS map information subsystem
Cease computing staff's real-time distribution information；
Devastated judges subsystem 3：After determining Disasters Type, rank and disaster-stricken geographical position, delimit Dispersal Point as
Proprietary evacuation terminal；
Evacuation emulation subsystem 4：GIS map information, personnel's real-time distribution information and the disaster region obtained more than
Judge information, computing staff evacuates path and personnel's dispersal plan；
Dispersal plan is generated with issue subsystem 5, and the result for evacuation emulation subsystem 4 to be calculated generates optimal dredge
Dissipate scheme and issue；
Three-dimensional rendering subsystem 6, for the preferred plan of generation to be rendered into threedimensional model.
The function of each subsystem and mutual relation are described in detail in emulation mode above, no longer superfluous here
State.
Although the present invention, those skilled in the art are particularly shown and described with reference to its exemplary embodiment
It should be understood that in the case where not departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention that claim is limited, form can be carried out to it
With the various changes in details.
Claims (12)
1. the real-time city emergency evacuation emulation method based on cell phone data, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
1）Using GIS map information subsystem obtain GIS map information, wherein GIS map information include urban geography key element and
Factor-factor relationship information；
2）Subsystem is excavated using personnel's real-time distribution by cell phone data combination GIS map information computing staff in real time to divide
Cloth information；
3）After determining Disasters Type, rank and disaster-stricken geographical position, using devastated judge subsystem delimit Dispersal Point as
Proprietary evacuation terminal；
4）GIS map information, personnel's real-time distribution information and the disaster region obtained using evacuation emulation subsystem more than
Judge information, computing staff evacuates path and personnel's dispersal plan；
Wherein, the geographic element includes road, building, mountain region, lake and river, and factor-factor relationship information is by all roads
Junction is considered as a point, and all roads are all adjacent 2 points of lines, and every road gives one according to load capacity
Weights, form topological path figure；
When being simulated using evacuation emulation subsystem, it is assumed that everyone is intelligent body, each intelligent body have the corresponding age and
Psychological condition, and Network Maximal-flow algorithm is used, while road load ability is considered, all intelligent bodies are allowed with most fast speed
Degree is reached home.
2. emergency evacuation emulation mode according to claim 1, it is characterised in that also generate and issue including dispersal plan
Subsystem, the result for evacuation emulation subsystem to be calculated generate optimal dispersal plan and issue.
3. emergency evacuation emulation mode according to claim 2, it is characterised in that also including three-dimensional rendering subsystem, use
In the preferred plan of generation is rendered into threedimensional model.
4. emergency evacuation emulation mode according to claim 1, it is characterised in that personnel's real-time distribution excavates subsystem
System acquisition personnel's real-time distribution information be：It was divided into multiple periods by one day by life, work scheduling time, counts at some
Between in section in respective regions the time of librarian use mobile phone, position and corresponding cell-phone number, using some days as a cycle
The data of same time period are overlapped, obtain the real-time distribution information of some period personnel.
5. emergency evacuation emulation mode according to claim 4, it is characterised in that the cycle is seven days.
6. emergency evacuation emulation mode according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the devastated judges subsystem root
Come the actual devastated of preliminary judgement according to the contour in disaster-stricken geographical position and respective regions GIS, then choose wherein face again
The maximum several non-devastateds of product are as safe escape point.
7. a kind of real-time city emergency evacuation emulation system based on cell phone data, it is characterised in that including following subsystem
System：
GIS map information subsystem：For obtaining GIS map information, including urban geography key element and factor-factor relationship information；
Personnel's real-time distribution excavates subsystem：The information meter obtained by cell phone data combination GIS map information subsystem
Calculation personnel's real-time distribution information；
Devastated judges subsystem：After determining Disasters Type, rank and disaster-stricken geographical position, Dispersal Point delimited as owner
Evacuation terminal；
Evacuation emulation subsystem：GIS map information, personnel's real-time distribution information and the disaster region decision letter obtained more than
Breath, computing staff evacuate path and personnel's dispersal plan；
Wherein, the geographic element includes road, building, mountain region, lake and river, and factor-factor relationship information is by all roads
Junction is considered as a point, and all roads are all adjacent 2 points of lines, and every road gives one according to load capacity
Weights, form topological path figure；
When being simulated using evacuation emulation subsystem, it is assumed that everyone is intelligent body, each intelligent body have the corresponding age and
Psychological condition, and Network Maximal-flow algorithm is used, while road load ability is considered, all intelligent bodies are allowed with most fast speed
Degree is reached home.
8. emergency evacuation analogue system according to claim 7, it is characterised in that also generate and issue including dispersal plan
Subsystem, the result for evacuation emulation subsystem to be calculated generate optimal dispersal plan and issue.
9. emergency evacuation analogue system according to claim 8, it is characterised in that also including three-dimensional rendering subsystem, use
In the preferred plan of generation is rendered into threedimensional model.
10. emergency evacuation analogue system according to claim 7, it is characterised in that personnel's real-time distribution excavates son
System obtains personnel's real-time distribution information：It was divided into multiple periods by one day by life, work scheduling time, counts at some
The period interior time of librarian use mobile phone, position and corresponding cell-phone number in respective regions, using some days as a week
The data of same time period are overlapped by the phase, obtain the real-time distribution information of some period personnel.
11. emergency evacuation analogue system according to claim 10, it is characterised in that the cycle is seven days.
12. emergency evacuation analogue system according to claim 7, it is characterised in that the devastated judges subsystem
Then contour in disaster-stricken geographical position and respective regions GIS is chosen wherein come the actual devastated of preliminary judgement again
The maximum several non-devastateds of area are as safe escape point.
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