Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/srk/srkwps/2021122.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring the impact of a bank failure on the real economy: an EU-wide analytical framework

Author

Listed:
  • Vacca, Valerio Paolo
  • Bichlmeier, Fabian
  • Biraschi, Paolo
  • Boschi, Natalie
  • Álvarez, Antonio J. Bravo
  • Di Primio, Luciano
  • Ebner, André
  • Hoeretzeder, Silvia
  • Ballesteros, Elisa Llorente
  • Miani, Claudia
  • Ricci, Giacomo
  • Santioni, Raffaele
  • Schellerer, Stefan
  • Westman, Hanna
Abstract
The crisis management framework for banks in the European Union (EU) requires the resolution authorities to identify the existence of a public interest to resolve an ailing bank, rather than to open normal insolvency proceedings (NIPs). The Public Interest Assessment (PIA) determines whether resolution objectives, including the safeguard of financial stability, can be better preserved using resolution tools than NIPs .This paper provides a contribution to the ongoing discussion on the implementation of the PIA, by presenting an analytical framework to quantify the potential impact on the real economy stemming from a bank’s failure under NIPs through the interruption of the lending activity (“credit channel”). The framework is harmonized across the jurisdictions belonging to the Banking Union and aims to improve the quantitative leg of the PIA, to be coupled with qualitative elements. In a first step, we quantify the potential credit shortfall faced by firms and households due to the abrupt closure of a bank. In a second step, the impact of the credit shortfall on real outcomes is estimated via a FAVAR model and via a micro-econometric model. Reference values are provided to assess the relevance of the estimated outcomes. The illustrative results show that such a harmonized approach can be applied across the Banking Union and to banks of heterogeneous size. In case of mid-sized banks, this common analytical framework could reduce the uncertainty regarding the extent to which the failure of the institution could have a negative impact to the real economy if the lending activity is interrupted as possibly the case under NIPs. JEL Classification: E58, G01, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Vacca, Valerio Paolo & Bichlmeier, Fabian & Biraschi, Paolo & Boschi, Natalie & Álvarez, Antonio J. Bravo & Di Primio, Luciano & Ebner, André & Hoeretzeder, Silvia & Ballesteros, Elisa Llorente & Mian, 2021. "Measuring the impact of a bank failure on the real economy: an EU-wide analytical framework," ESRB Working Paper Series 122, European Systemic Risk Board.
    • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:2021122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.esrb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/wp/esrb.wp122~a6bcceb7eb.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    2. Fabio Berton & Sauro Mocetti & Andrea F. Presbitero & Matteo Richiardi, 2018. "Banks, Firms, and Jobs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(6), pages 2113-2156.
    3. Arnoud W. A. Boot & Anjan V. Thakor, 2000. "Can Relationship Banking Survive Competition?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 679-713, April.
    4. Barone, Guglielmo & de Blasio, Guido & Mocetti, Sauro, 2018. "The real effects of credit crunch in the great recession: Evidence from Italian provinces," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 352-359.
    5. Andrea F. Presbitero & Gregory F. Udell & Alberto Zazzaro, 2014. "The Home Bias and the Credit Crunch: A Regional Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(s1), pages 53-85, February.
    6. Puri, Manju & Rocholl, Jörg & Steffen, Sascha, 2011. "Global retail lending in the aftermath of the US financial crisis: Distinguishing between supply and demand effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 556-578, June.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    8. Carlos D. Ramirez & Philip A. Shively, 2012. "The Effect of Bank Failures on Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States in the Early 20th Century," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 433-455, March.
    9. Katarzyna Budnik & Gaia Barbic & Giulio Nicoletti & Massimiliano Affinito & Fabrizio Venditti & Saiffedine Ben Hadj & Hans Dewachter & Edouard Chretien & Clara Isabel González & Javier Mencía & Jenny , 2019. "The benefits and costs of adjusting bank capitalisation: evidence from euro area countries," Working Papers 1923, Banco de España.
    10. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
    11. Timo Baas & Mechthild Schrooten, 2006. "‘Relationship Banking and SMEs: A Theoretical Analysis’," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 127-137, October.
    12. Enrica Detragiache & Paolo Garella & Luigi Guiso, 2000. "Multiple versus Single Banking Relationships: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1133-1161, June.
    13. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Koibuchi, Satoshi, 2007. "The impacts of "shock therapy" on large and small clients: Experiences from two large bank failures in Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 434-451, November.
    14. Degryse, Hans & De Jonghe, Olivier & Jakovljević, Sanja & Mulier, Klaas & Schepens, Glenn, 2019. "Identifying credit supply shocks with bank-firm data: Methods and applications," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    15. Thorsten Beck & Samuel Da-Rocha-Lopes & André F Silva & Francesca Cornelli, 2021. "Sharing the Pain? Credit Supply and Real Effects of Bank Bail-ins [High wage workers and high wage firms]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(4), pages 1747-1788.
    16. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2018. "How Much Do Idiosyncratic Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 525-587.
    17. Girardi, Alessandro & Ventura, Marco & Margani, Patrizia, 2018. "An Indicator of Credit Crunch using Italian Business Surveys," MPRA Paper 88839, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Mitchell A. Petersen & Raghuram G. Rajan, 1995. "The Effect of Credit Market Competition on Lending Relationships," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 407-443.
    19. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 573-601, June.
    20. Covi, Giovanni & Montagna, Mattia & Torri, Gabriele, 2019. "Economic shocks and contagion in the euro area banking sector: a new micro-structural approach," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    21. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2005. "Are Banks Really Special? New Evidence from the FDIC-Induced Failure of Healthy Banks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1712-1730, December.
    22. Altavilla, Carlo & Andreeva, Desislava & Boucinha, Miguel & Holton, Sarah, 2019. "Monetary policy, credit institutions and the bank lending channel in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 222, European Central Bank.
    23. Guler, Ozan & Mariathasan, Mike & Mulier, Klaas & Okatan, Nejat G., 2019. "The Real Effects of Credit Supply: Review, Synthesis, and Future Directions," MPRA Paper 96542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    25. Calomiris, Charles W & Mason, Joseph R, 1997. "Contagion and Bank Failures during the Great Depression: The June 1932 Chicago Banking Panic," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 863-883, December.
    26. Ongena, S. & Smith, D.C., 2000. "Bank relationships : A review," Other publications TiSEM 993b88a5-9a0f-42de-9cec-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    27. Barnett, Alina & Thomas, Ryland, 2013. "Has weak lending and activity in the United Kingdom been driven by credit supply shocks?," Bank of England working papers 482, Bank of England.
    28. Budnik, Katarzyna & Bochmann, Paul, 2017. "Capital and liquidity buffers and the resilience of the banking system in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2120, European Central Bank.
    29. Jonas E. Arias & Juan F. Rubio‐Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner, 2018. "Inference Based on Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified With Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(2), pages 685-720, March.
    30. Kupiec, Paul H. & Ramirez, Carlos D., 2013. "Bank failures and the cost of systemic risk: Evidence from 1900 to 1930," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 285-307.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Bripi, 2023. "The impact of credit substitution between banks on investment," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1408, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Berger, Allen N. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2020. "Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Doris Neuberger & Solvig Räthke, 2009. "Microenterprises and multiple bank relationships: The case of professionals," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 207-229, February.
    4. Beatriz, Mikael & Coffinet, Jérôme & Nicolas, Théo, 2022. "Relationship lending and SMEs’ funding costs over the cycle: Why diversification of borrowing matters," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    5. Ozan Güler & Mike Mariathasan & Klaas Mulier & Nejat G. Okatan, 2021. "The real effects of banks' corporate credit supply: A literature review," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1252-1285, July.
    6. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    7. Doris Neuberger & Maurice Pedergnana & Solvig Räthke-Döppner, 2008. "Concentration of Banking Relationships in Switzerland: The Result of Firm Structure or Banking Market Structure?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 33(2), pages 101-126, April.
    8. Egli, Dominik & Ongena, Steven & Smith, David C., 2006. "On the sequencing of projects, reputation building, and relationship finance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 23-39, March.
    9. Lončarski, Igor & Marinč, Matej, 2020. "The political economy of relationship banking," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    10. Helmut Herwartz & Christian Ochsner & Hannes Rohloff, 2021. "Global Credit Shocks and Real Economies," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202116, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Horen, Neeltje van, 2015. "Shocks Abroad, Pain at Home? Bank-Firm Level Evidence on the International Transmission of Financial Shocks," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 63(4), pages 698-750.
    12. Ricci, Lorenzo & Soggia, Giovanni & Trimarchi, Lorenzo, 2023. "The impact of bank lending standards on credit to firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    13. Ghosh, Chinmoy & He, Fan, 2023. "The impact of laws and institutions on financial contracts: Evidence from relationship lending across the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    14. Philipp Meinen & Ana Cristina Soares, 2022. "Markups and Financial Shocks," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2471-2499.
    15. Kazuo Ogawa & Elmer Sterken & Ichiro Tokutsu, 2005. "Bank Control and the Number of Bank Relations of Japanese Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 1589, CESifo.
    16. Bharat N. Anand & Alexander Galetovic, 2002. "Does Competition Kill Relationships? Inside Investment Banking," Documentos de Trabajo 119, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    17. Mariarosaria Agostino & Francesca Gagliardi & Francesco Trivieri, 2010. "Credit market structure and bank screening," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 151-160, October.
    18. J.-P. Niinimäki, 2022. "Relationship Lending and Switching Costs under Asymmetric Information about Bank Types," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 111-149, February.
    19. Kanngiesser Derrick & Martin Reiner & Maurin Laurent & Moccero Diego, 2020. "The macroeconomic impact of shocks to bank capital buffers in the Euro Area," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-17, January.
    20. Klein, Paul-Olivier & Weill, Laurent, 2022. "Bank profitability and economic growth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 183-199.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank insolvency; bank lending; bank resolution; EU crisis management framework; public interest assessment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:2021122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esrbede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.