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Linear Contracts, Common Agency and Central Bank Preference Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Ciccarone
  • Enrico Marchetti
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to bring together two recent developments in the "contracting" approach to the time-inconsistency problem of monetary policy: linear contracts under common agency and central bank preference uncertainty under single agency. We show that under common agency and imperfect "political" transparencey, the full transparency finding that the interest group contract dominates the government's one is confirmed, but equilibrium expected inflation is lower, as the new source of uncertainty makes the two principals more cautious in their instrument setting. This reduces the average inflation bias. We then extend the analysis to the case of uncertainty on the central bank output target and show that the expected values of inflation and output are the same as those obtained under perfect "economic" transparency, whereas the actual values are different only for the presence of an additive term depending on opacity. Finally, we demonstrate that when the principals are uncertain about the weight attached by the central banker to the incentive scheme the equilibrium inflation surprise may be negative and output may be lower than the natural rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Ciccarone & Enrico Marchetti, 2008. "Linear Contracts, Common Agency and Central Bank Preference Uncertainty," Working Papers in Public Economics 115, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    • Handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp115
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Dai, Meixing & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2012. "Inflation contract, central bank transparency and model uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2371-2381.
    2. Christoph S. Weber, 2020. "The unemployment effect of central bank transparency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2947-2975, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank transparency; Inflation; uncertainty.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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