Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rug/rugwps/24-1091.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are low interest rates firing back? Interest rate risk in the banking book and bank lending in a rising interest rate environment

Author

Listed:
  • Lara Coulier
  • Cosimo Pancaro
  • Alessio Reghezza
Abstract
We match granular supervisory and credit register data to assess the implications of banks’ exposure to interest rate risk on the monetary policy transmission to bank lending supply in the euro area. We exploit the largest and swiftest increase in interest rates since the creation of the euro and find that banks with a higher exposure to interest rate risk, i.e., with a larger duration gap after accounting for hedging, curtailed corporate lending more than their peers. Ceteris paribus, greater interest rate risk entails closer supervisory scrutiny and potential capital surcharges in the short term, and lower expected profitability and capital accumulation in the medium to long term. We then proceed to dissect banks’ credit allocation and find that banks with higher net duration reshuffled their loan portfolio away from long-term loans in an attempt to limit the increase in interest rate risk and targeted their lending contraction to small and micro firms. Firms exposed to banks with a larger exposure to interest rate risk were unable to fully rebalance their borrowing needs with other lenders, thus experiencing a relatively larger decrease in total borrowing during the monetary tightening episode.

Suggested Citation

  • Lara Coulier & Cosimo Pancaro & Alessio Reghezza, 2024. "Are low interest rates firing back? Interest rate risk in the banking book and bank lending in a rising interest rate environment," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1091, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:24/1091
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_24_1091.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Todd Messer & Friederike Niepmann, 2023. "What determines passthrough of policy rates to deposit rates in the euro area?," FEDS Notes 2023-07-28-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2017. "The Deposits Channel of Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1819-1876.
    3. Kashyap, Anil K. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1995. "The impact of monetary policy on bank balance sheets," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 151-195, June.
    4. Gomez, Matthieu & Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2021. "Banks’ exposure to interest rate risk and the transmission of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 543-570.
    5. Mauricio Ulate, 2021. "Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 1-40, January.
    6. Dautović, Ernest & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Reghezza, Alessio, 2023. "Supervisory policy stimulus: evidence from the euro area dividend recommendation," Working Paper Series 2796, European Central Bank.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    8. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    9. Jarrad Harford & Sandy Klasa & William F. Maxwell, 2014. "Refinancing Risk and Cash Holdings," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 975-1012, June.
    10. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    11. Bottero, Margherita & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Sette, Enrico, 2022. "Expansionary yet different: Credit supply and real effects of negative interest rate policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 754-778.
    12. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
    13. Gambacorta, Leonardo & Shin, Hyun Song, 2018. "Why bank capital matters for monetary policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 17-29.
    14. Murillo Campello, 2002. "Internal Capital Markets in Financial Conglomerates: Evidence from Small Bank Responses to Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2773-2805, December.
    15. Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel & Darmouni, Olivier & Luck, Stephan & Plosser, Matthew, 2022. "Bank liquidity provision across the firm size distribution," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 908-932.
    16. Viral V Acharya & Tim Eisert & Christian Eufinger & Christian Hirsch, 2019. "Whatever It Takes: The Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3366-3411.
    17. Van den Heuvel Skander J., 2012. "Banking Conditions and the Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from U.S. States," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-31, March.
    18. Enrica Detragiache & Paolo Garella & Luigi Guiso, 2000. "Multiple versus Single Banking Relationships: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1133-1161, June.
    19. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2021. "Banking on Deposits: Maturity Transformation without Interest Rate Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1091-1143, June.
    20. Becker, Bo & Ivashina, Victoria, 2014. "Cyclicality of credit supply: Firm level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-93.
    21. Degryse, Hans & De Jonghe, Olivier & Jakovljević, Sanja & Mulier, Klaas & Schepens, Glenn, 2019. "Identifying credit supply shocks with bank-firm data: Methods and applications," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    22. Hanson, Samuel G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2015. "Monetary policy and long-term real rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 429-448.
    23. Olivier De Jonghe & Hans Dewachter & Klaas Mulier & Steven Ongena & Glenn Schepens, 2020. "Some Borrowers Are More Equal than Others: Bank Funding Shocks and Credit Reallocation [A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-43.
    24. Henri Fraisse & Mathias Lé & David Thesmar, 2020. "The Real Effects of Bank Capital Requirements," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 5-23, January.
    25. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    26. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2012. "Banking Globalization and Monetary Transmission," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(5), pages 1811-1843, October.
    27. Bo Becker & Victoria Ivashina, 2018. "Financial Repression in the European Sovereign Debt Crisis [Sovereign debt, government myopia and the financial sector]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 83-115.
    28. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Has Finance Made the World Riskier?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 499-533, September.
    29. Kirti, Divya, 2020. "Why do bank-dependent firms bear interest-rate risk?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    30. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 615-642, June.
    31. repec:oup:rfinst:v:21:y:2017:i:4:p:1739-1765. is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Michael Joyce & David Miles & Andrew Scott & Dimitri Vayanos, 2012. "Quantitative Easing and Unconventional Monetary Policy – an Introduction," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 271-288, November.
    33. Purnanandam, Amiyatosh, 2007. "Interest rate derivatives at commercial banks: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1769-1808, September.
    34. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    35. George G. Kaufman, 1984. "Measuring and managing interest rate risk: A primer," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 8(Jan), pages 16-29.
    36. Teodora Paligorova & João A. C. Santos, 2017. "Banks’ Exposure to Rollover Risk and the Maturity of Corporate Loans," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1739-1765.
    37. Peter Hoffmann & Sam Langfield & Federico Pierobon & Guillaume Vuillemey, 2019. "Who Bears Interest Rate Risk?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(8), pages 2921-2954.
    38. Flannery, Mark J, 1981. "Market Interest Rates and Commercial Bank Profitability: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1085-1101, December.
    39. Berg, Tobias & Saunders, Anthony & Schäfer, Larissa & Steffen, Sascha, 2021. "Brexit and the contraction of syndicated lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 66-82.
    40. Esposito, Lucia & Nobili, Andrea & Ropele, Tiziano, 2015. "The management of interest rate risk during the crisis: Evidence from Italian banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 486-504.
    41. Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Robert Marquez, 2013. "Interest Rates and the Bank Risk-Taking Channel," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 123-141, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Grandi, Pietro & Guille, Marianne, 2023. "Banks, deposit rigidity and negative rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    2. Ozan Güler & Mike Mariathasan & Klaas Mulier & Nejat G. Okatan, 2021. "The real effects of banks' corporate credit supply: A literature review," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1252-1285, July.
    3. Gomez, Matthieu & Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2021. "Banks’ exposure to interest rate risk and the transmission of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 543-570.
    4. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    5. Behn, Markus & Forletta, Marco & Reghezza, Alessio, 2024. "Buying insurance at low economic cost – the effects of bank capital buffer increases since the pandemic," Working Paper Series 2951, European Central Bank.
    6. Grosse-Rueschkamp, Benjamin & Steffen, Sascha & Streitz, Daniel, 2019. "A capital structure channel of monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 357-378.
    7. Bittner, Christian & Bonfim, Diana & Heider, Florian & Saidi, Farzad & Schepens, Glenn & Soares, Carla, 2022. "The Augmented Bank Balance-Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 17056, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Bottero, Margherita & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Sette, Enrico, 2022. "Expansionary yet different: Credit supply and real effects of negative interest rate policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 754-778.
    9. Dautović, Ernest & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Reghezza, Alessio, 2023. "Supervisory policy stimulus: evidence from the euro area dividend recommendation," Working Paper Series 2796, European Central Bank.
    10. Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya & Vonnák, Dzsamila, 2021. "In lands of foreign currency credit, bank lending channels run through?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Altavilla, Carlo & Burlon, Lorenzo & Giannetti, Mariassunta & Holton, Sarah, 2022. "Is there a zero lower bound? The effects of negative policy rates on banks and firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 885-907.
    12. Mattia Girotti, 2021. "How monetary policy changes bank liability structure and funding cost," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 49-75.
    13. Duquerroy, Anna & Matray, Adrien & Saidi, Farzad, 2022. "Tracing Banks' Credit Allocation to their Funding Costs," CEPR Discussion Papers 17072, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Molyneux, Philip & Pancotto, Livia & Reghezza, Alessio & Rodriguez d'Acri, Costanza, 2022. "Interest rate risk and monetary policy normalisation in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    15. Naqvi, Hassan & Pungaliya, Raunaq, 2023. "Bank size and the transmission of monetary policy: Revisiting the lending channel," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    16. Morales, Paola & Osorio, Daniel & Lemus, Juan S. & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2022. "The internationalization of domestic banks and the credit channel of monetary policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    17. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Paludkiewicz, Karol & Fricke, Daniel & Greppmair, Stefan, 2024. "Excess Reserves and Monetary Policy Tightening," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302364, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Abuka, Charles & Alinda, Ronnie K. & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2019. "Monetary policy and bank lending in developing countries: Loan applications, rates, and real effects," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 185-202.
    20. Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei, 2023. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2023-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rate risk; Duration gap; Bank lending channel; Financial Stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:24/1091. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nathalie Verhaeghe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferugbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.