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Does Fake News Affect Voting Behaviour?

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Cantarella

    (University of Modena and Reggio Emilia and University of Helsinki)

  • Nicolò Fraccaroli

    (Università di Roma "Tor Vergata")

  • Roberto Volpe

    (LUISS Guido Carli)

Abstract
We study the impact of fake news on votes for populist parties in the Italian elections of 2018. Our empirical strategy exploits the presence of Italian- and German-speaking voters in the Italian region of Trentino Alto-Adige/Südtirol as an exogenous source of assignment to fake news exposure. Using municipal data, we compare the effect of exposure to fake news on the vote for populist parties in the 2013 and 2018 elections. To do so, we introduce a novel indicator of populism using text mining on the Facebook posts of Italian parties before the elections. We find that exposure to fake news is positively correlated with vote for populist parties, but that less than half of this correlation is causal. Our findings support the view that exposure to fake news (i) favours populist parties, but also that (ii) it is positively correlated with prior support for populist parties, suggesting a self-selection mechanism.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Cantarella & Nicolò Fraccaroli & Roberto Volpe, 2020. "Does Fake News Affect Voting Behaviour?," CEIS Research Paper 493, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 17 Jun 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:493
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Davide Bellucci & Pierluigi Conzo & Roberto Zotti, 2019. "Perceived Immigration and Voting Behavior," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 588, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    2. Ghazaryan, Armine & Giulietti, Corrado & Wahba, Jackline, 2022. "Terror headlines and voting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    3. Boldrini, Michela & Conzo, Pierluigi & Fiore, Simona & Zotti, Roberto, 2023. "Blaming migrants doesn’t pay: the political effects of the Ebola epidemic in Italy," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202320, University of Turin.
    4. Guzi, Martin & Mikula, Štěpán, 2021. "Careful what you say: The effect of manipulative information on the 2013 Czech presidential run-off election," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    5. João Pedro Baptista & Elisete Correia & Anabela Gradim & Valeriano Piñeiro-Naval, 2021. "The Influence of Political Ideology on Fake News Belief: The Portuguese Case," Publications, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-17, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fake News; Political Economy; Electoral Outcomes; Populism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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