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Determinants of Urban Land Supply in China: How Do Political Factors Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Hsu, Wen-Tai

    (School of Economics, Singapore Management University)

  • Li, Xiaolu

    (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University)

  • Tang, Yang

    (Division of Economics, Nanyang Technological University)

  • Wu, Jing

    (Hang Lung Center for Real Estate and Department of Construction Management, Tsinghua University)

Abstract
This paper explores two political factors for their potential effects on urban land supply in China: corruption, and competition for promotion. We find that standard urban-economic predictions hold in the sense that both population and income increases are strongly significant determinants for the increase in urban land supply. Conditional on these demand-side factors, we find that the usage of two-stage auctions (as a proxy for corruption) is highly correlated with the increase in land supply. The corruption effects are strongest for commercial land, followed by residential land and then industrial land. To shed light on the competition motives among prefectural leaders, we examine how the number of years in office affects land supply, and distinguish among different hypotheses. Our empirical results show robust rising trends in land sales (both in quantity and revenue). These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the impatience and anxiety in later years from not being promoted may contribute to the increase in land sales revenue in later years; they are inconsistent with the hypothesis that prefectural leaders may give up and become more corrupt in later years. We also find that prefectural leaders may aim for larger land sales revenue overall in the first few (around 5) years in office instead of larger revenue in the first couple years.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsu, Wen-Tai & Li, Xiaolu & Tang, Yang & Wu, Jing, 2017. "Determinants of Urban Land Supply in China: How Do Political Factors Matter?," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 7-2017, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:smuesw:2017_007
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yang Shen & Jing Wu & Shuping Wu, 2022. "City‐chief turnover and place‐based policy change: Evidence from China," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(5), pages 1296-1328, November.
    2. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    3. Harald Hau & Difei Ouyang, 2019. "Local Capital Scarcity and Small Firm Growth: Evidence from Real Estate Booms in China," CESifo Working Paper Series 7928, CESifo.
    4. Chunping Liu & Zhirong Ou, 2021. "What determines China's housing price dynamics? New evidence from a DSGE‐VAR," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3269-3305, July.
    5. Tao Chen & Youchao Tan & Jinghua Wang & Cheng (Colin) Zeng, 2022. "The Unintended Consequence of Land Finance: Evidence from Corporate Tax Avoidance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 8319-8342, November.
    6. Gyourko, Joseph & Shen, Yang & Wu, Jing & Zhang, Rongjie, 2022. "Land finance in China: Analysis and review," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Hsu, Wen-Tai & Ma, Lin, 2021. "Urbanization policy and economic development: A quantitative analysis of China's differential hukou reforms," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land supply; China; Political factors; institution; Monocentric-city model;
    All these keywords.

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