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A reduced form model of default spreads with Markov-switching macroeconomic factors

Author

Listed:
  • Dionne, Georges

    (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management)

  • Gauthier, Geneviève

    (HEC Montreal, Department of Decision Sciences)

  • Hammami, Khemais

    (Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec)

  • Maurice, Mathieu

    (Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec)

  • Simonato, Jean-Guy

    (HEC Montréal, Department of Finance)

Abstract
An important research area of the corporate yield spread literature seeks to measure the proportion of the spread that can be explained by factors such as the possibility of default, liquidity, tax differentials and market risk. We contribute to this literature by assessing the ability of observed macroeconomic factors and the possibility of changes in regime to explain the proportion of yield spreads caused by the risk of default in the context of a reduced form model. For this purpose, we extend the Markov Switching risk-free term structure model of Bansal and Zhou (2002) to the corporate bond setting and develop recursive formulas for default probabilities, risk-free and risky zero-coupon bond yields as well as credit default swap premia. The model is calibrated with consumption, inflation, risk-free yields and default data for Aa, A and Baa bonds from the 1987-2008 period. We find that our macroeconomic factors are linked with two out of three sharp increases in the spreads during this sample period, indicating that the variations can be related to macroeconomic undiversifiable risk. The estimated default spreads can explain almost half of the 10 years to maturity industrial Baa zero-coupon yields in some regime. Much smaller proportions are found for Aa and A bonds with numbers around 10%. The proportions of default estimated with credit default swaps are higher, in many cases doubling those found with corporate yield spreads.

Suggested Citation

  • Dionne, Georges & Gauthier, Geneviève & Hammami, Khemais & Maurice, Mathieu & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 2010. "A reduced form model of default spreads with Markov-switching macroeconomic factors," Working Papers 10-6, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:crcrmw:2010_006
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    3. Georges Dionne & Olfa Maalaoui Chun, 2013. "Default and liquidity regimes in the bond market during the 2002-2012 period," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1160-1195, November.
    4. Badye Essid & Tolga Cenesizoglu, 2010. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Credit Spreads," 2010 Meeting Papers 1139, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Bazán, Walter, 2011. "No-linealidades y asimetrías en el crédito peruano," Working Papers 2011-015, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    6. Timothée Papin & Gabriel Turinici, 2014. "Prepayment option of a perpetual corporate loan: the impact of the funding costs," Post-Print hal-00768571, HAL.
    7. Georges Dionne & Olfa Maalaoui Chun, 2013. "Presidential Address: Default and liquidity regimes in the bond market during the 2002–2012 period," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(4), pages 1160-1195, November.
    8. Avino, Davide & Nneji, Ogonna, 2014. "Are CDS spreads predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 262-274.
    9. Jumbe, George, 2023. "Credit Risk Assessment Using Default Models: A Review," OSF Preprints ksb8n, Center for Open Science.
    10. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Papin, Timothée, 2013. "Pricing of Corporate Loan : Credit Risk and Liquidity cost," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/12545 edited by Turinici, Gabriel.
    12. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    13. Haipeng Xing & Yang Yu, 2018. "Firm’s Credit Risk in the Presence of Market Structural Breaks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, December.
    14. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00768571 is not listed on IDEAS
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    16. Batten, Jonathan A. & Jacoby, Gady & Liao, Rose C., 2014. "Corporate yield spreads and real interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-100.
    17. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
    18. Anas Yassine & Abdelmadjid Ibenrissoul, 2018. "The macroeconomics determinants of default of the borrowers: The case of Moroccan bank," Papers 1801.05770, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    19. Anas Yassine & Abdelmadjid Ibenrissoul & Nawal Snoussi & Zakaria Benjouid, 2017. "The macroeconomics determinants of default of the borrowers: The case of Moroccan bank [Les déterminants macroéconomiques de la défaillance des emprunteurs : Le cas d'une banque marocaine]," Working Papers hal-01683225, HAL.
    20. Okou, Cedric & Maalaoui Chun, Olfa & Dionne, Georges & Li, Jingyuan, 2016. "Can Higher-Order Risks Explain the Credit Spread Puzzle?," Working Papers 16-1, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    21. Ashwaq Ali Zarban & David Colwell & Donna Mary Salopek, 2024. "Pricing a Defaultable Zero-Coupon Bond under Imperfect Information and Regime Switching," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-19, September.
    22. Mathieu Gatumel & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "The Number of Regimes Across Asset Returns: Identification and Economic Value," Post-Print halshs-00658540, HAL.
    23. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 943-973.
    24. Georges Dionne & Pascal François & Olfa Maalaoui Chun, 2009. "Detecting Regime Shifts in Corporate Credit Spreads," Cahiers de recherche 0929, CIRPEE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit spread; default spread; Markov switching; macroeconomic factors; reduced form model of default; random subjective discount factor; credit default swap; CDS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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