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Building Neural Network Models for Time Series: A Statistical Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Marcelo C. Medeiros

    (Department of Economics PUC-Rio)

  • Timo Terasvirta

    (Department of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics)

  • Gianluigi Rech

    (Quantitative Analysis, Electrabel, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium)

Abstract
This paper is concerned with modelling time series by single hidden layer feedforward neural network models. A coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. Variable selection is carried out using existing techniques. The problem of selecting the number of hidden units is solved by sequentially applying Lagrange multiplier type tests, with the aim of avoiding the estimation of unidentified models. Misspecification tests are derived for evaluating an estimated neural network model. A small-sample simulation experiment is carried out to show how the proposed modelling strategy works and how the misspecification tests behave in small samples. Two applications to real time series, one univariate and the other multivariate, are considered as well. Sets of one-step-ahead forecasts are constructed and forecast accuracy is compared with that of other nonlinear models applied to the same series.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo C. Medeiros & Timo Terasvirta & Gianluigi Rech, 2002. "Building Neural Network Models for Time Series: A Statistical Approach," Textos para discussão 461, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:461
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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