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Structural Change and Slowdown of International Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan Monarch

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Jing Zhang

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)

  • Logan Lewis

    (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

Abstract
As countries get richer, they consume a larger share of their income in the services or less-traded sector. This structural change pattern is one of the most salient features of economic development. Consequently, as the world economy becomes more services oriented, it will become "less open" in terms of total trade over GDP. Thus structural change impacts long-run global trade. This paper quantitatively studies the impact of structural change on global trade, and we find that the world trade over GDP ratio would have been about 17 percentage points higher if structural change had not happened. We find little evidence that this drag on trade growth has become more pronounced in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Monarch & Jing Zhang & Logan Lewis, 2017. "Structural Change and Slowdown of International Trade," 2017 Meeting Papers 1542, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:1542
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Serhan Cevik & Jan Gottschalk & Eric Hutton & Laura Jaramillo & Pooja Karnane & Mousse Sow, 2019. "Structural transformation and tax efficiency," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 341-379, December.
    3. Catherine Boulatoff & Talan B. İşcan & Yulia Kotlyarova, 2022. "Does Distance Matter for Trade in Services? The Case of Interprovincial Trade in Canada," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 157-185, February.
    4. Khan, Muhammad Aamir, 2020. "Cross sectoral linkages to explain structural transformation in Nepal," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 221-235.
    5. Diego Comin & Danial Lashkari & Martí Mestieri, 2021. "Structural Change With Long‐Run Income and Price Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 311-374, January.
    6. Michael Sposi & Jing Zhang & Kei-Mu Yi, 2018. "Accounting for Structural Change Over Time: A Case Study of Three Middle-Income Countries," 2018 Meeting Papers 1141, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Phong B. Dao, 2021. "A CUSUM-Based Approach for Condition Monitoring and Fault Diagnosis of Wind Turbines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-19, June.
    8. Stanojević Nataša, 2020. "Deglobalization of the World Economy and its Effects on the Western Balkan Countries," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 58(3), pages 343-362, September.
    9. Nils M. Gornemann & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Felipe Saffie, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Endogenous Productivity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1301, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Benjamin N. Dennis & Talan B. İşcan, 2020. "Structural change and global trade flows: Does an emerging giant matter?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 1191-1231, November.
    11. Andrea Papetti, 2021. "Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1333, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Saad, Ayhab F., 2021. "Institutional change in the global economy: How trade reform can be detrimental to welfare," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 97-110.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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