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Volatility forecasting: Intra-day versus inter-day models

Author

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  • Angelidis, Timotheos
  • Degiannakis, Stavros
Abstract
Volatility prediction is the key variable in forecasting the prices of options, value-at-risk and, in general, the risk that investors face. By estimating not only inter-day volatility models that capture the main characteristics of asset returns, but also intra-day models, we were able to investigate their forecasting performance for three European equity indices. A consistent relation is shown between the examined models and the specific purpose of volatility forecasts. Although researchers cannot apply one model for all forecasting purposes, evidence in favor of models that are based on inter-day datasets when their criteria based on daily frequency, such as value-at-risk and forecasts of option prices, are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelidis, Timotheos & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2008. "Volatility forecasting: Intra-day versus inter-day models," MPRA Paper 96322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96322
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arfimax; Arch; Option pricing; Value-at-risk; Volatility forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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