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Do Households Actually Generate Rational Expectations? “Invisible Hand” for Steady State

Author

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  • Harashima, Taiji
Abstract
The rational expectations hypothesis has been criticized for imposing substantial demands on economic agents, and this problem has not been sufficiently solved by introducing a learning mechanism. I present a new approach to this problem by assuming that households behave on the basis of not the rate of time preference but the capital-output (income) ratio. I show that households can equivalently reach and stay at a steady state without doing anything equivalent to computing a complex macro-econometric model. Although households are not required to implement anything difficult, they look to be behaving fully rationally, led by an “invisible hand.”

Suggested Citation

  • Harashima, Taiji, 2018. "Do Households Actually Generate Rational Expectations? “Invisible Hand” for Steady State," MPRA Paper 88822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:88822
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Gary S. Becker & Casey B. Mulligan, 1997. "The Endogenous Determination of Time Preference," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(3), pages 729-758.
    5. Taiji Harashima, 2004. "A More Realistic Endogenous Time Preference Model and the Slump in Japan," Macroeconomics 0402015, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2004.
    6. Ellison, Martin & Pearlman, Joseph, 2011. "Saddlepath learning," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1500-1519, July.
    7. Harashima, Taiji, 2014. "Time Preference Shocks," MPRA Paper 60205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Taiji HARASHIMA, 2015. "Bubbles Bluffs and Greed," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 21-49.
    9. Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 429-480.
    10. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
    11. Harashima, Taiji, 2010. "Sustainable Heterogeneity: Inequality, Growth, and Social Welfare in a Heterogeneous Population," MPRA Paper 22521, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    13. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Ramsey Meets Laibson in the Neoclassical Growth Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(4), pages 1125-1152.
    14. Harashima, Taiji, 2009. "Depression as a Nash Equilibrium Consisting of Strategies of Choosing a Pareto Inefficient Transition Path," MPRA Paper 18953, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Harashima, Taiji, 2012. "Sustainable Heterogeneity as the Unique Socially Optimal Allocation for Almost All Social Welfare Functions," MPRA Paper 40938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Harashima, Taiji, 2022. "Numerical Simulations of Reaching a Steady State: No Need to Generate Any Rational Expectations," MPRA Paper 115335, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Harashima, Taiji, 2020. "A Theory of the Credit-to-GDP Gap: Using Credit Gaps to Predict Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 111732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Harashima, Taiji, 2023. "Numerical Simulation of an Endogenously Growing Economy and Its Balanced Growth Path," MPRA Paper 119391, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Harashima, Taiji, 2020. "Why Is Risk Aversion Essentially Important for Endogenous Economic Growth?," MPRA Paper 101011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Harashima, Taiji, 2019. "The Correlation between Time Preference and Incomes Is Spurious: They Are Bridged by Fluid Intelligence," MPRA Paper 96756, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital-output ratio; Rational expectation; Steady state; Sustainable heterogeneity; Time preference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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