Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/78160.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of Chinese Interest Rates and Inflation: A Decomposition of The Fisher Effect

Author

Listed:
  • Bosupeng, Mpho
Abstract
China’s economic growth as well as global influence has been escalating in the last decades. The purpose of this investigation is to determine the impact of Chinese interest rates and inflation on other economies. The study uses data from 1982 to 2013 and applies the Toda and Yamamoto approach to Granger causality. Using data for nineteen countries, the results show that China has significant influence on interest rates and inflation dynamics of Costa Rica, Kenya and Nigeria. The study further shows that Japan and South Africa induce China’s interest rates as well as inflation. It is projected that as China’s economy continues to grow, her influence in global financial matters and other economies will also intensify.

Suggested Citation

  • Bosupeng, Mpho, 2016. "The Effects of Chinese Interest Rates and Inflation: A Decomposition of The Fisher Effect," MPRA Paper 78160, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:78160
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/78160/1/MPRA_paper_78160.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Park, Joon Y, 1992. "Canonical Cointegrating Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 119-143, January.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. P. C. B. Phillips & S. N. Durlauf, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 473-495.
    4. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 451-464, October.
    5. K. M. Hawtrey, 1997. "The Fisher effect and Australian interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 337-346.
    6. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    7. George Mavrotas & Roger Kelly, 2001. "Old Wine in New Bottles: Testing Causality between Savings and Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(s1), pages 97-105.
    8. Nikitas Pittis, 1999. "Efficient Estimation Of Cointegrating Vectors and Testing for Causality in Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 1-35, February.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process With An Intercept," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 373-406, June.
    11. repec:bla:manchs:v:69:y:2001:i:0:p:97-105 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti & Trenkler, Carsten, 2003. "Comparison of tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a structural shift," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 201-229, April.
    13. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    14. Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-298, May.
    15. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    16. Horvath, Michael T.K. & Watson, Mark W., 1995. "Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 984-1014, October.
    17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    18. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2015. "The Impossible Trinity and Financial Markets – An Examination of Inflation Volatility Spillovers," MPRA Paper 77923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    19. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000. "Testing for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a time trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 177-198, March.
    20. Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1986. "Asymptotic Equivalence of OLS and GLS in Regressions with Integrated Regressors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 802, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    21. Graham Elliott, 1998. "On the Robustness of Cointegration Methods when Regressors Almost Have Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 149-158, January.
    22. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    23. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2005. "Energy demand and economic growth: The African experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 891-903, November.
    24. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1992. "Estimation and Testing of Cointegrated Systems by an Autoregressive Approximation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, March.
    25. Hamid Hasan, 1999. "Fisher Effect in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 153-166.
    26. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    27. Markku Lanne, 2001. "Near unit root and the relationship between inflation and interest rates: A reexamination of the Fisher effect," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 357-366.
    28. Tsong, Ching-Chuan & Lee, Cheng-Feng, 2013. "Quantile cointegration analysis of the Fisher hypothesis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 186-198.
    29. Pelaez, Rolando F., 1995. "The Fisher effect: Reprise," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 333-346.
    30. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2017. "On the Effects of the BRICS on World Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 81757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    2. Bosupeng Mpho, 2016. "The Effect of Exports on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Policy Implications," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 51(1), pages 20-32, September.
    3. Mpho Bosupeng, 2015. "The Fisher Effect Using Differences in The Deterministic Term," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 5(4), pages 1031-1031.
    4. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2015. "The Impossible Trinity and Financial Markets – An Examination of Inflation Volatility Spillovers," MPRA Paper 77923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    5. Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Vector autoregressions," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,4, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    6. Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Vector autoregressive analysis," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,31, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    7. Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2017. "Energy-growth long-term relationship under structural breaks. Evidence from Canada, 17 Latin American economies and the USA," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 121-134.
    8. Hallin, M. & van den Akker, R. & Werker, B.J.M., 2012. "Rank-based Tests of the Cointegrating Rank in Semiparametric Error Correction Models," Other publications TiSEM bc68a2f2-3ca3-443c-b3ac-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Eiji Kurozumi & Yoichi Arai, 2007. "Efficient estimation and inference in cointegrating regressions with structural change," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 545-575, July.
    10. Kirstin Hubrich & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001. "A Review Of Systems Cointegration Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 247-318.
    11. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3.
    12. Zhihui Lv & Amanda M. Y. Chu & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Modelling Economic Growth, Carbon Emissions, and Fossil Fuel Consumption in China: Cointegration and Multivariate Causality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-35, October.
    13. Hallin, M. & Werker, B.J.M. & van den Akker, R., 2015. "Optimal Pseudo-Gaussian and Rank-based Tests of the Cointegration Rank in Semiparametric Error-correction Models," Other publications TiSEM d1b040c9-db57-4e55-846f-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Boswijk, H. Peter & Jansson, Michael & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2015. "Improved likelihood ratio tests for cointegration rank in the VAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 97-110.
    15. Carsten Trenkler*, 2005. "The Effects of Ignoring Level Shifts on Systems Cointegration Tests," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 89(3), pages 281-301, August.
    16. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Gold as an inflation hedge in a time-varying coefficient framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 208-222.
    17. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Jaidi, Zied, 2014. "Some new evidence on the determinants of money demand in developing countries – A case study of Tunisia," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 30-45.
    18. Pesavento, Elena, 2004. "Analytical evaluation of the power of tests for the absence of cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 349-384, October.
    19. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Bekun, Festus Victor & Etokakpan, Mfonobong Udom & Driha, Oana M., 2019. "A road to enhancements in natural gas use in Iran: A multivariate modelling approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    20. Boswijk, H. Peter, 1995. "Efficient inference on cointegration parameters in structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 133-158, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    nominal interest rates; real interest rates; inflation; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:78160. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.