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Integration of macroeconomic behavioural relationships and the input-output block: Romanian modelling experience

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  • Dobrescu, Emilian
Abstract
The last version of the Romanian macromodel (Dobrescu 2005b) incorporates the experience accumulated through the utilisation of its previous forms - either experimental (Dobrescu 1991-1994) or operational (Dobrescu 1996-2005a). At the same time, it introduces some methodological and informational improvements. The most significant of them is the structural decomposition of economy, according to the input-output techniques. Output and absorption are divided into: a) agriculture, sylviculture, forestry, hunting, and fishing; b) mining and energy; c) manufacturing industry; d) construction; e) transport, post and communications; f) trade and services. These categories can be easily translated into the classical three-sectors classification: primary (a+b), secondary (c+d), and tertiary (e+f). Due to the relatively advanced stage of the transitional processes in Romania, the behavioural functions were modelled - as much as possible - by the standard relationships. Besides, unlike the previous versions (that used statistical series beginning with 1980) the present one is based exclusively on information regarding the period 1989-2004. Since the input-output tables are defined yearly, the model contains only annual indicators. They are expressed in denominated local currency (RON). The export, import, and exchange rate series were transformed in Euro. When there were several informational sources for the same indicator, the data extracted or derived from national accounts have been adopted. The statistical series are relatively short and often fractured (because of the transforming processes of transition). Although, it is known that ADF test of stationarity does not offer reliable results in the case of limited number of observations, generally the series satisfying it were used. The simplest regression methods were also preferred. The structural breaks in evolution of some series have been dealt by the inclusion of dummies. Obviously, all these circumstances weaken the stability of econometric coefficients that must be continuously updated. The first two chapters of the paper characterise the main macroeconomic behavioural relationships and input-output coefficients. The third one discusses a possible scenario for the Romanian economy during 2005-2010. A set of simulations is presented in the final part of the paper; these reveal some operational features of the macromodel.

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  • Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Integration of macroeconomic behavioural relationships and the input-output block: Romanian modelling experience," MPRA Paper 35748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35748
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    Cited by:

    1. Emilian Dobrescu, 2013. "Restatement of the I-O Coefficient Stability Problem," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 2(1), pages 1-67, December.
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    7. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2007. "The "Dobrescu” Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 version. Yearly Forecast – Preliminary results for 2007," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(4), pages 124-126, December.
    8. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2011. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Summer Forecast 2011, June Estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 171-174, March.
    9. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2008. "A Desirable Scenario For The Romanian Economy During 2008-2013," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(4), pages 15-58, December.
    10. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2008. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy* -2005 Version-Yearly Forecast Scenario for “Increase in foreign capital inflows”," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 129-131, June.
    11. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2007. "The "DOBRESCU” Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy* - 2005 version - Yearly Forecast - actualised scenario," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(2), pages 118-123, June.
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    13. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2008. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Base Scenario for 2008," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(1), pages 193-195, March.
    14. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2007. "The "Dobrescu" Macromodel of the Romanian Market Economy* - 2005 version - Yearly Forecast - The second actualised scenario," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(3), pages 124-129, September.
    15. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2008. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version Yearly Forecast Autumn Forecast," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(3), pages 129-131, September.
    16. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2010. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Summer Forecast for 2010," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 320-324, July.
    17. Pauna, Bianca & Ghizdeanu, Ion & Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Saman, Corina, 2007. "The "Dobrescu" Macromodel Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(1), pages 115-125, March.
    18. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2010. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Preliminate for 2010, November estimate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 208-212, December.
    19. Institute for Economic Forecasting & Centre for Macroeconomic Modelling, 2010. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" of the Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version - Yearly Forecast – Autumn Forecast for 2010," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 187-190, September.
    20. Macomodel of the Romanian Market Economy Group (Cornelia Scutaru, Ion Ghizdeanu, Lucian Liviu Albu, Bianca Pauna, Corina Saman), 2009. "The "Dobrescu Macromodel" Of The Romanian Market Economy - 2005 Version* Yearly Forecast - Spring Forecast 2009," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 155-159, March.
    21. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2019. "The New Version (2018) of the Romanian Macromodel - The Sectoral Module," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 5-31, June.
    22. Scutaru, Cornelia & Fomin, Petre & Stanica, Cristian, 2010. "Prospects for the Evolution of the Economic Sectors’ Behavior," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 120-142.

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    19. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    20. Zsolt Darvas & Gábor Vadas, 2003. "Univariate Potential Output Estimations for Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2003/8, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    21. Antonella Palumbo, 2008. "I metodi di stima del PIL potenziale tra fondamenti di Teoria economica e Contenuto empirico," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0092, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    22. Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2009. "Estimating Output Gap, Core Inflation, and the NAIRU for Peru," Working Papers 2009-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    model; input-output analysis; econometric relationships; simulations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

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