Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/119168.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Retirement Age Trap: RDD Approach to Terminated Retirement Spells

Author

Listed:
  • Linden, Mikael
Abstract
Regression discontinuity (RD) analysis of retirement durations and retiree death ages is conducted with the Finnish year 1947 birth cohort. Data consist of observations from the sample follow-up period in 1.1.2007 – 31.12.2019. For the year 1947 cohort the eligible retirement age with old-age pension is between the ages of 63 and 68 years. However, the observed pension ages are quite often less than 63 years although the statutory minimum retirement age regulates persons’ retirement times. This means that for some retirees age of 63 years constitutes a queuing age that is against their retirement intentions, and this affects their retirement spells. We find with RD methods that close after death age of 63 years, the retirement spells discontinuously shortens although the higher death age should give room for the longer retirement spells. The point estimates for regression discontinuity effects on terminated retirement spells are in the range of from –1.09 to –0.56 in loss of year depending on the used sub-samples, covariates, and estimation methods. These findings are interpreted to conflict retirement intentions of retirees retiring at age of 63 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Linden, Mikael, 2023. "Retirement Age Trap: RDD Approach to Terminated Retirement Spells," MPRA Paper 119168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:119168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/119168/1/MPRA_paper_119168.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Fields & Olivia S. Mitchell, 1984. "Economic Determinants of the Optimal Retirement Age: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 19(2), pages 245-262.
    2. Paul Marmora & Moritz Ritter, 2015. "Unemployment and the Retirement Decisions of Older Workers," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 274-290, September.
    3. Deborah A. Cobb‐Clark & Steven Stillman, 2009. "The Retirement Expectations of Middle‐aged Australians," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(269), pages 146-163, June.
    4. Andreas Kuhn, 2018. "The complex effects of retirement on health," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 430-430, March.
    5. Michael D. Hurd & James P. Smith & Julie M. Zissimopoulos, 2004. "The effects of subjective survival on retirement and Social Security claiming," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 761-775.
    6. Ilmakunnas, Pekka & Ilmakunnas, Seija, 2018. "Health and retirement age: Comparison of expectations and actual retirement," MPRA Paper 102618, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & David Weil, 2010. "Mortality change, the uncertainty effect, and retirement," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 65-91, March.
    8. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D Cattaneo & Max H Farrell, 2020. "Optimal bandwidth choice for robust bias-corrected inference in regression discontinuity designs," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 23(2), pages 192-210.
    9. Owen O'Donnell & Federica Teppa & Eddy van Doorslaer, 2008. "Can subjective survival expectations explain retirement behaviour?," DNB Working Papers 188, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
    11. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    12. Gustafsson, Johan, 2023. "Public pension reform with ill-informed individuals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    13. David S. Lee & Thomas Lemieux, 2010. "Regression Discontinuity Designs in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 281-355, June.
    14. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore, 2014. "Optimal Retirement with Increasing Longevity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(3), pages 838-858, July.
    15. Michela Coppola & Christina Benita Wilke, 2014. "At What Age Do You Expect to Retire? Retirement Expectations and Increases in the Statutory Retirement Age," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 165-188, June.
    16. Mashfiqur R. Khan & Matthew S. Rutledge & April Yanyuan Wu, 2014. "How Do Subjective Longevity Expectations Influence Retirement Plans?," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2014-1, Center for Retirement Research.
    17. Adeline Delavande & Susann Rohwedder, 2011. "Differential Survival in Europe and the United States: Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1377-1400, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Linden, Mikael & Väänänen, Niko, 2023. "Mean survival times and retirement ages," MPRA Paper 119344, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tomasz Jedynak, 2022. "Does the Formulation of the Decision Problem Affect Retirement?—Framing Effect and Planned Retirement Age," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-30, February.
    3. Thierno Bocar Diop & Lionel Védrine, 2025. "Did crop diversity criterion from CAP green payments affect both economic and environmental farm performances? Quasi-experimental evidence from France," Post-Print hal-04739921, HAL.
    4. Babii, Andrii & Kumar, Rohit, 2023. "Isotonic regression discontinuity designs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 371-393.
    5. Bauer, Thomas K. & Bender, Stefan & Paloyo, Alfredo R. & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2012. "Evaluating the labor-market effects of compulsory military service," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 814-829.
    6. Luis Felipe Batista de Oliveira & Rafael Terra, 2016. "Impact of school day extension on educational outcomes: evidence from Mais Educação in Brazil," Working Papers 147, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    7. Guido W. Imbens, 2020. "Potential Outcome and Directed Acyclic Graph Approaches to Causality: Relevance for Empirical Practice in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1129-1179, December.
    8. Chad D. Meyerhoefer & Muzhe Yang, 2011. "The Relationship between Food Assistance and Health: A Review of the Literature and Empirical Strategies for Identifying Program Effects," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 304-344.
    9. Feng, Andy & Graetz, Georg, 2017. "A question of degree: The effects of degree class on labor market outcomes," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 140-161.
    10. Barbara Engels & Johannes Geyer & Peter Haan, 2016. "Pension Incentives and Early Retirement," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1617, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Susan Athey & Guido W. Imbens, 2017. "The State of Applied Econometrics: Causality and Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 3-32, Spring.
    12. Yang He & Otávio Bartalotti, 2020. "Wild bootstrap for fuzzy regression discontinuity designs: obtaining robust bias-corrected confidence intervals," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 23(2), pages 211-231.
    13. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    14. Agarwal, Natasha & Chan, Jackie M.L. & Lodefalk, Magnus & Tang, Aili & Tano, Sofia & Wang, Zheng, 2023. "Mitigating information frictions in trade: Evidence from export credit guarantees," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Heller-Sahlgren, Gabriel, 2017. "Retirement blues," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 66-78.
    16. Guido W. Imbens, 2010. "Better LATE Than Nothing: Some Comments on Deaton (2009) and Heckman and Urzua (2009)," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 399-423, June.
    17. Martins, Theo Cotrim & Novaes, Walter, 2012. "Mandatory dividend rules: Do they make it harder for firms to invest?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 953-967.
    18. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin & Varvaris, Vanessa, 2021. "Neighbourhood, school zoning and the housing market: Evidence from New South Wales," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    19. Sebastian Galiani & Patrick J. McEwan & Brian Quistorff, 2017. "External and Internal Validity of a Geographic Quasi-Experiment Embedded in a Cluster-Randomized Experiment," Advances in Econometrics, in: Regression Discontinuity Designs, volume 38, pages 195-236, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    20. Chiang, Harold D. & Hsu, Yu-Chin & Sasaki, Yuya, 2019. "Robust uniform inference for quantile treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 589-618.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regression discontinuity; retirement duration; age of death; statutory minimum retirement;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:119168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.