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Estimation and Machine Learning Prediction of Imports of Goods in European Countries in the Period 2010-2019

Author

Listed:
  • Costantiello, Alberto
  • Laureti, Lucio
  • Leogrande, Angelo
Abstract
In this article we estimate the imports of goods in European countries in the period 2010-2019 for 28 countries. We use Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, Pooled OLS, WLS. Our results show that “Imports of Goods” is negatively associated with “Private Consumption Expenditure at Current Prices”, “Consumption of Fixed Capital”, and “Gross Domestic Product” and positively associated with “Harmonised consumer price index” and “Gross Operating Surplus: Total Economy”. Finally, we compare a set of predictive models based on different machine learning techniques using RapidMiner, and we find that “Gradient Boosted Trees”, “Random Forest”, and “Decision Tree” are more efficient then “Deep Learning”, “Generalized Linear Model” and “Support Vector Machine”, in the sense of error minimization, to forecast the degree of “Imports of Goods”.

Suggested Citation

  • Costantiello, Alberto & Laureti, Lucio & Leogrande, Angelo, 2021. "Estimation and Machine Learning Prediction of Imports of Goods in European Countries in the Period 2010-2019," MPRA Paper 108663, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jul 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:108663
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ali Abdulkadir Ali & Ali Yassin Sheikh Ali & Mohamed Saney Dalmar, 2018. "The Impact of Imports and Exports Performance on the Economic Growth of Somalia," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(1), pages 110-119, January.
    2. Sayef Bakari & Mohamed Mabrouki & Abdelhafidh Othmani, 2018. "The Six Linkages Between Foreign Direct Investment, Domestic Investment, Exports, Imports, Labor Force And Economic Growth: New Empirical And Policy Analysis From Nigeria," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 3(1), pages 25-43, Juin.
    3. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    4. Heike Belitz & Florian Mölders, 2016. "International knowledge spillovers through high-tech imports and R&D of foreign-owned firms," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 590-613, June.
    5. Anthony Landry, 2018. "Capital-Goods Imports and U.S. Growth," 2018 Meeting Papers 208, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Andrey Gnidchenko & Anastasia Mogilat & Olga Mikheeva & Vladimir Salnikov, 2016. "Foreign Technology Transfer: An Assessment of Russia’s Economic Dependence on High-Tech Imports," Foresight-Russia Форсайт, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 10(1 (eng)), pages 53-67.
    7. Sayef Bakari & Mohamed Mabrouki, 2017. "Impact Of Exports And Imports On Economic Growth: New Evidence From Panama," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(1), pages 67-79, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    General Trade; Global Outlook; International Economic Order and Integration; Empirical Studies of Trade; Trade Forecasting and Simulation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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