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Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Boragan Aruoba

    (Department of Economics, University of Maryland)

  • Francis X. Diebold

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Jeremy Nalewaik

    (Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors, Federal Reserve Board)

  • Frank Schorfheide

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Dongho Song

    (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract
We provide a new and superior measure of U.S. GDP, obtained by applying optimal signal-extraction techniques to the (noisy) expenditure-side and income-side estimates. Its properties - particularly as regards serial correlation - differ markedly from those of the standard expenditure-side measure and lead to substantially-revised views regarding the properties of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Jeremy Nalewaik & Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2013. "Improving GDP Measurement: A Measurement-Error Perspective," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-016, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:13-016
    as

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    File URL: https://economics.sas.upenn.edu/sites/default/files/filevault/13-016.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Borağan Aruoba, 2008. "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 319-340, March.
    2. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy, 2011. "Is GDP or GDI a better measure of output? A statistical approach," BEA Working Papers 0076, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    3. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2010. "The Income- and Expenditure-Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 71-127.
    4. Ivana Komunjer & Serena Ng, 2011. "Dynamic Identification of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1995-2032, November.
    5. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    6. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669.
    7. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Jeremy Nalewaik & Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2011. "Improving GDP Measurement: A Forecast Combination Perspective," PIER Working Paper Archive 11-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Aruoba, S. BoraÄŸan & Diebold, Francis X. & Scotti, Chiara, 2009. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 417-427.
    9. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005. "News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-419, June.
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    11. Richard Stone & D. G. Champernowne & J. E. Meade, 1942. "The Precision of National Income Estimates," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 111-125.
    12. Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale & Steven E. Satchell, 1998. "Measurement Error with Accounting Constraints: Point and Interval Estimation for Latent Data with an Application to U.K. Gross Domestic Product," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(1), pages 109-134.
    13. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 20-24, May.
    14. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1986. "News or Noise? An Analysis of GNP Revisions," NBER Working Papers 1939, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Modeling data revisions: Measurement error and dynamics of "true" values," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 101-109, April.
    16. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    17. J. Steven Landefeld & Eugene P. Seskin & Barbara M. Fraumeni, 2008. "Taking the Pulse of the Economy: Measuring GDP," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 193-216, Spring.
    18. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Income; Output; expenditure; business cycle; expansion; contraction; recession; turning point; state-space model; dynamic factor model; forecast combination;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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