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Determinants of export sophistication: Evidence from Monte Carlo simulations

Author

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  • Karen Poghosyan

    (Central Bank of Armenia, Economic Research Department, Yerevan, Armenia)

  • Evžen Kočenda
Abstract
In this paper we analyze the determinants of export sophistication based on a large panel dataset (2001–2014; 101 countries) and using different estimation algorithms. Using Monte Carlo simulations we evaluate the bias properties of estimators and show that GMM-type estimators outperform instrumental-variable and fixed-effects estimators. We show that when we apply the panel data over a different period and different set of countries, the findings of Hausmann et al. (2007) remain robust. We provide new evidence of export sophistication path-dependency and confirm that GDP per capita and the size of the economy exert significant and positive effects on export sophistication. Institutional quality positively affects only countries with low institutional quality. The high persistence of export sophistication is also a sign that export diversification promotes not only productivity and sustainable economic growth but also resistance during economic downturns.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen Poghosyan & Evžen Kočenda, 2016. "Determinants of export sophistication: Evidence from Monte Carlo simulations," Working Papers 360, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    • Handle: RePEc:ost:wpaper:360
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Evžen Kočenda & Karen Poghosyan, 2018. "Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(12), pages 2799-2814, September.
    2. Naima Mubeen & Dr. Muhammad Abdul Quddus, 2023. "Trade Horizons: A Comprehensive Study of Determinants Shaping Export Diversification in Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 12(3), pages 446-458.
    3. Juthathip Jongwanich, 2022. "Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and Export Structures in Thailand," Discussion Papers 20230617, Thammasat University, Faculty of Economics, revised May 2022.
    4. Chletsos, Michael & Roupakias, Stelios, 2019. "Immigration and the economic performance of countries," MPRA Paper 94994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Rehman, Faheem Ur & Islam, Md. Monirul & Raza, Syed Ali, 2023. "Does disaggregate energy consumption matter to export sophistication and diversification in OECD countries? A robust panel model analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 274-284.
    6. Ridha Nouira & Sami Saafi, 2022. "What Drives the Relationship Between Export Upgrading and Growth? The Role of Human Capital, Institutional Quality, and Economic Development," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(3), pages 1944-1961, September.
    7. Shakib, Mohammed & Sohag, Kazi & Hassan, M. Kabir & Vasilyeva, Rogneda, 2023. "Finance and export diversifications Nexus in Russian regions: Role of trade globalization and regional potential," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    8. Baumöhl, Eduard & Iwasaki, Ichiro & Kočenda, Evžen, 2019. "Institutions and determinants of firm survival in European emerging markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 431-453.
    9. Song Zhang & Chunlai Chen, 2020. "Does Outward Foreign Direct Investment Facilitate China's Export Upgrading?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(5), pages 64-89, September.
    10. Burak Sencer Atasoy, 2021. "The determinants of export sophistication: Does digitalization matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5135-5159, October.
    11. Haini, Hazwan & Wei Loon, Pang & Li Li, Pang, 2023. "Can export diversification promote export upgrading? Evidence from an oil-dependent economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Hermann Ndoya & Bruno Emmanuel Ongo Nkoa & Francis Hypolite Kemeze & Tii N. Nchofoung, 2024. "Financial development and economic complexity: The role of country stability," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(2), pages 415-447, April.
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    17. Karishma Banga, 2022. "Digital Technologies and Product Upgrading in Global Value Chains: Empirical Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Firms," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(1), pages 77-102, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international trade; export sophistication; specialization; dynamic panel data; Monte Carlo simulation; panel data estimators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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