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Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice

Author

Listed:
  • Yacine Ait-Sahalia
  • Michael W. Brandt
Abstract
We study asset allocation when the conditional moments of returns are partly predictable. Rather than first model the return distribution and subsequently characterize the portfolio choice, we determine directly the dependence of the optimal portfolio weights on the predictive variables. We combine the predictors into a single index that best captures time-variations in investment opportunities. This index helps investors determine which economic variables they should track and, more importantly, in what combination. We consider investors with both expected utility (mean-variance and CRRA) and non-expected utility (ambiguity aversion and prospect theory) objectives and characterize their market-timing, horizon effects, and hedging demands.

Suggested Citation

  • Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Michael W. Brandt, 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," NBER Working Papers 8127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8127
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

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