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Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities

Author

Listed:
  • Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
  • Assaf Razin
Abstract
This paper studies sharp reductions in current account deficits and large exchange rate depreciations in low- and middle-income countries. It examines which factors help predict the occurrence of a reversal or a currency crisis, and how these events affect macroeconomic performance. It finds that both domestic factors, such as the low reserves, and external factors, such as unfavorable terms of trade and high interest rates in industrial countries, trigger reversals and currency crises. The two types of events are, however, distinct; indeed, current account imbalances are not sharply reduced in the years following a currency crisis. Economic performance around these events is also quite different. An exchange rate crash is associated with a fall in output growth and a recovery thereafter, while for reversal events there is no systematic evidence of a growth slowdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 6620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6620
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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