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An Exploratory Investigation of the Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns

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  • Wayne E. Ferson
  • Campbell R. Harvey
Abstract
This paper studies average and conditional expected returns in national equity markets, and their relation to a number of fundamental country attributes. The attributes are organized into three groups. The first is relative valuation ratios, such as price-to-book-value, cash-flow, earnings and dividends. The second group measures relative economic performance and the third measures industry structure. We find that average returns across countries are related to the volatility of their price-to-book ratios. Predictable variation in returns is also related to relative gross domestic product, interest rate levels and dividend-price ratios. We explore the hypothesis that cross-sectional variation in the country attributes proxy for variation in the sensitivity of national markets to global measures of economic risks. We test single-factor and two-factor models in which countries' conditional betas are assumed to be functions of the more important fundamental attributes.

Suggested Citation

  • Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1993. "An Exploratory Investigation of the Fundamental Determinants of National Equity Market Returns," NBER Working Papers 4595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4595
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    Cited by:

    1. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1994. "The Internationalization of Equity Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran94-1.
    3. Albuquerque, Rui & H. Bauer, Gregory & Schneider, Martin, 2009. "Global private information in international equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 18-46, October.
    4. Haque Mahfuzul & Hassan M. Kabir & Maroney Neal C & Sackley William H, 2004. "An Empirical Examination of Stability, Predictability, and Volatility of Middle Eastern and African Emerging Stock Markets," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 18-41, April.
    5. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach," International Finance 0405006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Massa, Massimo & Locarno, Alberto, 2005. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2011. "Risk factors in oil and gas industry returns: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 525-542, May.
    8. Christopherson, Jon A & Ferson, Wayne E & Glassman, Debra A, 1998. "Conditioning Manager Alphas on Economic Information: Another Look at the Persistence of Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 111-142.
    9. Petra Posedel Simovic & Marina Tkalec & Maruska Vizek, 2015. "Time-varying integration in European post-transition sovereign bond market," Working Papers 1501, The Institute of Economics, Zagreb.
    10. Gregory Bauer & Clara Vega, 2004. "The Monetary Origins of Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," Staff Working Papers 04-47, Bank of Canada.
    11. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Economic, Financial, and Fundamental Global Risk In and Out of the EMU," NBER Working Papers 6967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    13. Minh Hai Ngo & Marc Oliver Rieger & Shuonan Yuan, 2018. "The Fundamental Equity Premium and Ambiguity Aversion in an International Context," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-24, November.
    14. Jose Antonio R. Tan, 1998. "Contagion effects during the Asian financial crisis: stock price data," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Charles M. Engel, 1994. "Tests of CAPM on an International Portfolio of Bonds and Stocks," NBER Chapters, in: The Internationalization of Equity Markets, pages 149-183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Rui Albuquerque & Gregory Bauer & Martin Schneider, 2004. "Characterizing Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," International Finance 0405005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1994. "The Internalization of Equity Markets: Introduction," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233216, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    18. Durham, J. Benson, 2001. "Sensitivity analyses of anomalies in developed stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1503-1541, August.
    19. Kuo, Weiyu & E. Satchell, Stephen, 2001. "Global equity styles and industry effects: the pre-eminence of value relative to size," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, March.
    20. Ramos, Sofia B. & Veiga, Helena, 2013. "Oil price asymmetric effects: Answering the puzzle in international stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 136-145.
    21. Xing, Xuejing, 2004. "A note on the time-series relationship between market industry concentration and market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 105-115, April.
    22. Tesar, Linda L., 1995. "Evaluating the gains from international risksharing," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 95-143, June.
    23. Posedel Šimović, Petra & Tkalec, Marina & Vizek, Maruška & Lee, Junsoo, 2016. "Time-varying integration of the sovereign bond markets in European post-transition economies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 30-40.
    24. Ramos, Sofía B. & Veiga, Helena, 2010. "Asymmetric effects of oil price fluctuations in international stock markets," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws100904, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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