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External Equity Financing Shocks, Financial Flows, and Asset Prices

Author

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  • Frederico Belo
  • Xiaoji Lin
  • Fan Yang
Abstract
The ability of corporations to raise external equity finance varies with macroeconomic conditions, suggesting that the cost of equity issuance is time-varying. Using cross sectional data on U.S. publicly traded firms, we construct an empirical proxy of an aggregate shock to the cost of equity issuance, which we interpret as a financial shock. We show that this shock captures systematic risk, and that exposure to this shock helps price the cross section of stock returns including book-to-market, investment, and size portfolios. We propose a dynamic investment-based model with stochastic equity issuance costs and a collateral constraint to interpret the empirical findings. Our central finding is that time variation in external equity financing costs is important for the model to quantitatively capture the joint dynamics of firms’ asset prices, real quantities, and financing flows. In the model, growth firms, high investment firms, and large firms, can substitute more easily debt financing for equity financing when it becomes more costly to raise external equity, hence these firms are less risky in equilibrium. The model also replicates the failure of the unconditional CAPM in pricing the cross section of stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederico Belo & Xiaoji Lin & Fan Yang, 2014. "External Equity Financing Shocks, Financial Flows, and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 20210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20210
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    2. Andrea Caggese & Ander Pérez-Orive, 2017. "Capital Misallocation and Secular Stagnation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-009, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Mamdouh Medhat & Berardino Palazzo, 2020. "Equity Financing Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-037, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Cooper, Michael & Gulen, Huseyin & Ion, Mihai, 2024. "The use of asset growth in empirical asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Efdal Ulas Misirli, 2018. "Productivity Risk and Industry Momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 739-774, September.
    6. Bai, Hang & Hou, Kewei & Kung, Howard & Zhang, Lu, 2015. "The CAPM Strikes Back? An Investment Model with Disasters," Working Paper Series 2015-03, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    7. Christoph Görtz & Plutarchos Sakellaris & John D. Tsoukalas, 2017. "Financing Lumpy Adjustment," Working Papers 2017_06, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    8. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2018. "Uncertainty Shocks, Asset Supply and Pricing over the Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(2), pages 810-854.
    9. Winston Wei Dou & Yan Ji & David Reibstein & Wei Wu, 2021. "Inalienable Customer Capital, Corporate Liquidity, and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 211-265, February.
    10. Hu, Weiping & Li, Kai & Zhang, Xiao, 2024. "Financial constraints, cash flow timing patterns, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    11. Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Muir, Tyler, 2016. "Aggregate external financing and savings waves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 116-133.
    12. Wix, Carlo, 2017. "The long-run real effects of banking crises: Firm-level investment dynamics and the role of wage rigidity," SAFE Working Paper Series 189, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    13. Caggese, Andrea & Pérez-Orive, Ander, 2022. "How stimulative are low real interest rates for intangible capital?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    14. Po‐Hsuan Hsu & Huijun Wang & Wei Yang, 2022. "General Purpose Technologies as Systematic Risk in Global Stock Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1141-1173, August.
    15. Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Tyler Muir, 2014. "Aggregate External Financing and Savings Waves," NBER Working Papers 20442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Filippo Ippolito & Alessandro Villa, 2022. "Levered Returns and Capital Structure Imbalances," Working Paper Series WP 2022-42, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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