Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/28554.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Soul's View of the Optimal Population Problem

Author

Listed:
  • David de la Croix
  • Matthias Doepke
Abstract
A long-standing challenge for welfare economics is to develop welfare criteria that can be applied to allocations with different population levels. Such a criterion is essential to resolve the optimal population problem, i.e., the tradeoff between population size and the welfare of each person alive. A welfare criterion that speaks to this issue inherently requires evaluating the welfare of nonexistent people, because some people exist only in some allocations but not in others. To make progress, we consider the population problem in an environment where population is variable, but there is a fixed supply of souls, who may experience multiple incarnations over time. Rather than pondering the value of nonexistence, from the souls' perspective comparing larger or smaller populations merely involves valuing shorter or longer waits until the next incarnation. We argue that such comparisons are possible on the basis of introspection and lead to intuitive welfare criteria with attractive properties. We emphasize that one does not have to believe in reincarnation to accept the resulting criteria; rather, reincarnation serves as a metaphor to facilitate the necessary utility comparisons.

Suggested Citation

  • David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2021. "A Soul's View of the Optimal Population Problem," NBER Working Papers 28554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28554
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w28554.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gustav Feichtinger & Raimund M. Kovacevic & Gernot Tragler (ed.), 2018. "Control Systems and Mathematical Methods in Economics," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-319-75169-6, October.
    2. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01383120 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Mikhail Golosov & Larry E. Jones & Michèle Tertilt, 2007. "Efficiency with Endogenous Population Growth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1039-1071, July.
    4. C. Simon Fan & Oded Stark, 2008. "Looking At The "Population Problem" Through The Prism Of Heterogeneity: Welfare And Policy Analyses," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(3), pages 799-835, August.
    5. Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2022. "Optimal lockdown and social welfare," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 241-268, January.
    6. Blackorby,Charles & Bossert,Walter & Donaldson,David J., 2005. "Population Issues in Social Choice Theory, Welfare Economics, and Ethics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521532587, September.
    7. Asheim, Geir B. & Zuber, Stéphane, 2016. "Evaluating intergenerational risks," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 104-117.
    8. David de la Croix & Axel Gosseries, 2009. "Population Policy Through Tradable Procreation Entitlements," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-542, May.
    9. Piacquadio, Paolo G., 2020. "The ethics of intergenerational risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    10. Carine Nourry & Alena Sergeeva & Alain Venditti, 2011. "A Two-sector Overlapping Generations Model with Endogenous Discounting," Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 359-385.
    11. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2007. "Inequality and Social Discounting," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(3), pages 365-402.
    12. Raouf Boucekkine & Blanca Martínez & J. Ramon Ruiz-Tamarit, 2018. "Optimal Population Growth as an Endogenous Discounting Problem: The Ramsey Case," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Gustav Feichtinger & Raimund M. Kovacevic & Gernot Tragler (ed.), Control Systems and Mathematical Methods in Economics, pages 321-347, Springer.
    13. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2004. "The Social Discount Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1257-1268, December.
    14. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2014. "Very long-run discount rates," Globalization Institute Working Papers 182, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    15. Blackorby, Charles & Bossert, Walter & Donaldson, David, 1995. "Intertemporal Population Ethics: Critical-Level Utilitarian Principles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(6), pages 1303-1320, November.
    16. International Panel on Social Progress (IPSP),, 2018. "Rethinking Society for the 21st Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108423144, September.
    17. Philippe Michel & Bertrand Wigniolle, 2007. "On Efficient Child Making," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 31(2), pages 307-326, May.
    18. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1047-1091, May.
    19. Pierre-André Jouvet & Gregory Ponthiere, 2011. "Survival, reproduction and congestion: the spaceship problem re-examined," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 233-273, October.
    20. Arrhenius, Gustaf, 2000. "An Impossibility Theorem for Welfarist Axiologies," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 247-266, October.
    21. de la Croix,David & Michel,Philippe, 2002. "A Theory of Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521001151, September.
    22. Smith, Adam, 1776. "An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number smith1776.
    23. Ng, Yew-Kwang, 1986. "Social criteria for evaluating population change: An alternative to the Blackorby-Donaldson criterion," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 375-381, April.
    24. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Marc Nerlove & Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka, 1985. "Population Size: Individual Choice and Social Optima," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 100(2), pages 321-334.
    26. International Panel on Social Progress (IPSP),, 2018. "Rethinking Society for the 21st Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108436342, September.
    27. Gary S. Becker & H. Gregg Lewis, 1974. "Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 81-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. repec:bla:jpbect:v:4:y:2002:i:3:p:347-68 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. John C. Harsanyi, 1953. "Cardinal Utility in Welfare Economics and in the Theory of Risk-taking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(5), pages 434-434.
    30. Raouf Boucekkine & Blanca Martínez & José Ramón Ruiz-Tamarit, 2018. "Optimal Population Growth as an Endogenous Discounting Problem: The Ramsey Case," Post-Print hal-01825912, HAL.
    31. Partha Dasgupta, 2008. "Discounting climate change," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 141-169, December.
    32. John C. Harsanyi, 1955. "Cardinal Welfare, Individualistic Ethics, and Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(4), pages 309-309.
    33. Nerlove, Marc & Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 1986. "Some Welfare Theoretic Implications of Endogenous Fertility," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(1), pages 3-31, February.
    34. Charles Blackorby & Walter Bossert & David Donaldson, 2002. "Population Principles with Number‐Dependent Critical Levels," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 4(3), pages 347-368, July.
    35. Drugeon, Jean-Pierre, 1996. "Impatience and long-run growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 281-313.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schoonbroodt, Alice & Tertilt, Michèle, 2014. "Property rights and efficiency in OLG models with endogenous fertility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 551-582.
    2. Thomas Baudin, 2011. "Family Policies: What Does the Standard Endogenous Fertility Model Tell Us?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 13(4), pages 555-593, August.
    3. Spataro, Luca & Renström, Thomas I., 2012. "Optimal taxation, critical-level utilitarianism and economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(9-10), pages 727-738.
    4. Thomas Renström & Luca Spataro, 2011. "The optimum growth rate for population under critical-level utilitarianism," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 1181-1201, July.
    5. Barrage, Lint, 2018. "Be careful what you calibrate for: Social discounting in general equilibrium," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 33-49.
    6. Stelter, Robert, 2016. "Over-aging — Are present-day human populations too old?," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 116-143.
    7. Treich, Nicolas & Espinosa, Romain, 2024. "The Animal-Welfare Levy," TSE Working Papers 24-1503, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. de la Croix, David & Gosseries, Axel, 2012. "The natalist bias of pollution control," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 271-287.
    9. Stelter, Robert, 2014. "Over-aging: Are present human populations too old?," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 137, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    10. BLACKORBY, Charles & BOSSERT, Walter & DONALDSON, David, 2006. "Population Ethics," Cahiers de recherche 2006-15, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
      • BLACKORBY, Charles & BOSSERT, Walter & DONALDSON, David, 2006. "Population Ethics," Cahiers de recherche 14-2006, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    11. Asheim, Geir B. & Zuber, Stéphane, 2016. "Evaluating intergenerational risks," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 104-117.
    12. Dean Spears & Stéphane Zuber, 2023. "Foundations of utilitarianism under risk and variable population," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 61(1), pages 101-129, July.
    13. Philippe Michel & Bertrand Wigniolle, 2009. "Pareto-Efficiency and Endogenous Fertility: A Simple Model," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 36-59.
    14. Marla Ripoll & Juan Carlos Cordoba, 2011. "A Contribution to the Economic Theory of Fertility," 2011 Meeting Papers 1207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Graciela Chichilnisky & Peter J. Hammond & Nicholas Stern, 2020. "Fundamental utilitarianism and intergenerational equity with extinction discounting," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 54(2), pages 397-427, March.
    16. Claudio Zoli, 2009. "Variable population welfare and poverty orderings satisfying replication properties," Working Papers 69/2009, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    17. BLACKORBY, Charles & BOSSERT, Walter & DONALDSON, David, 2002. "Critical-Level Population Principles and the Repugnant Conclusion," Cahiers de recherche 2002-15, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    18. Gregory Ponthiere, 2016. "Utilitarian population ethics and births timing," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 189-238, April.
    19. Charles Shaw & Silvio Vanadia, 2022. "Utilitarianism on the front lines: COVID-19, public ethics, and the "hidden assumption" problem," Papers 2205.01957, arXiv.org.
    20. Simon Fan & Yu Pang & Pierre Pestieau, 2020. "A model of the optimal allocation of government expenditures," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 22(4), pages 845-876, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28554. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.