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The Investment Network, Sectoral Comovement, and the Changing U.S. Business Cycle

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  • Christian vom Lehn
  • Thomas Winberry
Abstract
We argue that the network of investment production and purchases across sectors is an important propagation mechanism for understanding business cycles. Empirically, we show that the majority of investment goods are produced by a few “investment hubs” which are more cyclical than other sectors. We embed this network into a multisector business cycle model and show that sector-specific shocks to the investment hubs and their key suppliers have large effects on aggregate employment and drive down labor productivity. Quantitatively, we find that sector-specific shocks to hubs and their suppliers account for an increasing share of aggregate fluctuations over time, generating the declining cyclicality of labor productivity and other changes in business cycle patterns since the 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian vom Lehn & Thomas Winberry, 2019. "The Investment Network, Sectoral Comovement, and the Changing U.S. Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 26507, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26507
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    Cited by:

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    2. Molnárová, Zuzana & Reiter, Michael, 2022. "Technology, demand, and productivity: What an industry model tells us about business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Andrew T. Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2022. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(12), pages 3286-3333.
    4. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2024. "Asset prices in a production network," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    5. Sen, A., 2024. "Structural Change at a Disaggregated Level: Sectoral Heterogeneity Matters," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2410, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Ferrante, Francesco & Graves, Sebastian & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2023. "The inflationary effects of sectoral reallocation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(S), pages 64-81.
    7. Mitra, Aruni, 2024. "The productivity puzzle and the decline of unions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Francisco J. Buera & Nicholas Trachter, 2024. "Sectoral Development Multipliers," NBER Working Papers 32230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lafond, François & Astudillo-Estévez, Pablo & Bacilieri, Andrea & Borsos, András, 2023. "Firm-level production networks: what do we (really) know?," INET Oxford Working Papers 2023-08, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    10. Zarges, Lara & Lehmann, Robert, 2024. "What Drives Trend German GDP Growth? A Disaggregated Sectoral View," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302409, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Kohei Matsumura & Tomomi Naka & Nao Sudo, 2023. "Analysis of the Transmission of Carbon Tax using a Multi-Sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    12. Fernández-Cerezo, Alejandro & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Quintana, Javier, 2024. "On the macroeconomic impact of NGEU funds and its propagation through the production network," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Maarten Dossche & Andrea Gavazzi & Vivien Lewis, 2023. "Labor Adjustment and Productivity in the OECD," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 111-130, January.
    14. Marco Pangallo, 2020. "Synchronization of endogenous business cycles," Papers 2002.06555, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    15. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Elia, Leandro, 2021. "Technology shocks and sectoral labour market spill-overs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    16. Jongchang Ahn & Yirang Jang & Yoonki Rhee, 2022. "A Factor Exploration and Empirical Study on the Influence of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on Employment: Focus on Korean Sample," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    17. Iovino, Luigi, 2023. "Comment on “Rigid production networks” by Pellet and Tahbaz-Salehi," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 103-106.
    18. Paul Gaggl & Aspen Gorry & Christian vom Lehn, 2023. "Structural Change in Production Networks and Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 10460, CESifo.
    19. Baruník, Jozef & Bevilacqua, Mattia & Faff, Robert, 2024. "Dynamic industry uncertainty networks and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    20. Alejandro Fernández-Cerezo & Enrique Moral-Benito & Javier Quintana, 2023. "A production network model for the Spanish economy with an application to the impact of NGEU funds," Working Papers 2305, Banco de España.
    21. Pellet, Thomas & Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza, 2023. "Rigid production networks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 86-102.
    22. Joshua Brault & Hashmat Khan, 2021. "Large Firms and the Cyclicality of US Labour Productivity," Carleton Economic Papers 21-02, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 27 May 2021.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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