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The Impact of Global Warming on Rural-Urban Migrations: Evidence from Global Big Data

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Peri
  • Akira Sasahara
Abstract
This paper examines the impact of temperature changes on rural-urban migration using a 56km×56km grid cell level dataset covering the whole world at 10-year frequency during the period 1970-2000. We find that rising temperatures reduce rural-urban migration in poor countries and increase such migration in middle-income countries. These asymmetric migration responses are consistent with a simple model where rural-urban earnings differentials and liquidity constraints interact to determine rural-to-urban migration flows. We also confirm these temperature effects using country-level observations constructed by aggregating the grid cell level data. We project that expected warming in the next century will encourage further urbanization in middle-income countries such as Argentina, but it will slow down urban transition in poor countries like Malawi and Niger.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Peri & Akira Sasahara, 2019. "The Impact of Global Warming on Rural-Urban Migrations: Evidence from Global Big Data," NBER Working Papers 25728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25728
    Note: DEV LS
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Katrin Millock & Cees Withagen, 2021. "Climate and Migration," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anil Markandya & Dirk Rübbelke (ed.), CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT, chapter 10, pages 309-341, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Théo Benonnier & Katrin Millock & Vis Taraz, 2022. "Long-term migration trends and rising temperatures: the role of irrigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 307-330, July.
    3. Esha Zaveri & Jason Russ & Amjad Khan & Richard Damania & Edoardo Borgomeo & Anders Jägerskog, 2021. "Ebb and Flow, Volume 1," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 36089.
    4. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2021. "The Effects of Climate Change on Labor and Capital Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 28995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Selod, Harris & Shilpi, Forhad, 2021. "Rural-urban migration in developing countries: Lessons from the literature," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Bruno Conte, 2022. "Climate Change and Migration: The Case of Africa," CESifo Working Paper Series 9948, CESifo.
    7. Trong-Anh, TRINH & Simon FEENY & Alberto POSSO, 2021. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Migration: Findings from Vietnam," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(3), pages 479-510, September.
    8. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2021. "The Effects of Climate Change on Labor and Capital Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 28995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Helbling, Marc & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2022. "Global warming and urbanization," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue Latest Ar, pages 1-1.
    10. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2024. "The effects of climate change on labor and capital reallocation," Economics Working Papers 1887, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    11. Sichko, Christopher, 2024. "Migrant selection and sorting during the Great American Drought," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    12. Cascarano, Michele & Natoli, Filippo & Petrella, Andrea, 2022. "Entry, exit and market structure in a changing climate," MPRA Paper 112868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Julia Brewer & Ashley Larsen & Frederik Noack, 2024. "The land use consequences of rural to urban migration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(1), pages 177-205, January.
    14. Andrey Samarskly & Maria Waldinger, 2024. "EU Development Policy and Climate Change," EconPol Policy Brief 61, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    15. Castells-Quintana, David & Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & McDermott, Thomas K.J., 2022. "Population displacement and urban conflict: Global evidence from more than 3300 flood events," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    16. Marc Helbling & Daniel Meierrieks, 2023. "Global warming and urbanization," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1187-1223, July.
    17. Bekhtiar, Karim, 2024. "Robotization, Internal Migration and Rural Decline," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302396, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Karim Bekhtiar, 2022. "Robotization, Internal Migration and Rural Depopulation in Austria," Economics working papers 2022-07, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    19. Sichko, Christopher, 2021. "Migrant Selection and Sorting during the Great American Drought," SocArXiv wm2p3, Center for Open Science.
    20. Rodrigo Garcia‐Verdu & Alexis Meyer‐Cirkel & Akira Sasahara & Hans Weisfeld, 2022. "Importing inputs for climate change mitigation: The case of agricultural productivity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 34-56, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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