Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/24984.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Markets, the Real Economy, and Self-fulfilling Uncertainties

Author

Listed:
  • Jess Benhabib
  • Xuewen Liu
  • Pengfei Wang
Abstract
Uncertainty in both financial markets and the real economy rises sharply during recessions. We develop a model of informational interdependence between financial markets and the real economy, linking uncertainty to information production and aggregate economic activities. We argue that there exists mutual learning between financial markets and the real economy. Their joint information productions determine both the allocative efficiency in the real sector and the market efficiency in the financial sector. The mutual learning creates a strategic complementarity between information production in the financial sector and that in the real sector. A self-fulfilling surge in financial uncertainty and real uncertainty can naturally arise when both sectors produce little information in anticipation of the other producing little information. At the same time, aggregate output falls as the real allocative efficiency deteriorates. In the extension to an OLG dynamic setting, our model characterizes self-fulfilling uncertainty traps with two steady-state equilibria and a two-stage economic crisis in transitional dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Jess Benhabib & Xuewen Liu & Pengfei Wang, 2018. "Financial Markets, the Real Economy, and Self-fulfilling Uncertainties," NBER Working Papers 24984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24984
    Note: CF EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w24984.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karamysheva, Madina, 2022. "How do fiscal adjustments work? An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Arnold, Lutz G. & Zelzner, Sebastian, 2022. "Financial trading versus entrepreneurship: Competition for talent and negative feedback effects," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 186-199.
    3. Yang Hao, 2023. "Financial Market with Learning from Price under Knightian Uncertainty," Working Papers hal-03686748, HAL.
    4. Liu, Xuewen & Wang, Pengfei & Yang, Zhongchao, 2024. "Delayed crises and slow recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Rodney Ramcharan & Vincent Yao & Edison Yu, 2020. "The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households," NBER Working Papers 27646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Elder, John, 2020. "Employment and energy uncertainty," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    7. Huang, Yu-Fan & Liao, Wenting & Luo, Sui & Ma, Jun, 2024. "Financial conditions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and macroeconomic tail risks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    8. Berardi, Michele, 2021. "Uncertainty, sentiments and time-varying risk premia," MPRA Paper 106922, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Elder, John & Payne, James E., 2023. "Racial and ethnic disparities in unemployment and oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    10. Itay Goldstein, 2023. "Information in Financial Markets and Its Real Effects," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-32.
    11. Xu, Zhiwei & Zhou, Fei & Zhou, Jing, 2022. "Sentiments and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    12. Liu, Yi & Zhang, Hengyuan & Chen, Daniel Q., 2024. "On the economic implications of international travel restrictions: Evidence from Chinese MNEs’ firm value," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    13. Kodongo, Odongo, 2024. "Bank performance and real sector productivity in East Africa," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 77, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    14. Paymon Khorrami & Fernando Mendo, 2021. "Rational Sentiments and Financial Frictions," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 928, Central Bank of Chile.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24984. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.