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A Portfolio View of Consumer Credit

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  • David K. Musto
  • Nicholas S. Souleles
Abstract
To compute risk-adjusted returns and gauge the volatility of their portfolios, lenders need to know the covariances of their loans' returns with aggregate returns. Cross-sectional differences in these covariances also provide insight into the nature of the shocks hitting different types of consumers. We use a unique panel dataset of credit bureau records to measure the 'covariance risk' of individual consumers, i.e., the covariance of their default risk with aggregate consumer default rates, and more generally to analyze the cross-sectional distribution of credit, including the effects of credit scores. We obtain two key sets of results. First, there is significant systematic heterogeneity in covariance risk across consumers with different characteristics. Consumers with high covariance risk tend to also have low credit scores (high default probabilities). Second, the amount of credit obtained by consumers significantly increases with their credit scores, and significantly decreases with their covariance risk (especially revolving credit), though the effect of covariance risk is smaller in magnitude.

Suggested Citation

  • David K. Musto & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2005. "A Portfolio View of Consumer Credit," NBER Working Papers 11735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11735
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    5. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
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    8. David B. Gross, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of Personal Bankruptcy and Delinquency," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 319-347, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gary B. Gorton & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2007. "Special Purpose Vehicles and Securitization," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 549-597, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ionescu, Felicia & Simpson, Nicole, 2016. "Default risk and private student loans: Implications for higher education policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 119-147.
    3. Madeira, Carlos, 2019. "Measuring the covariance risk of consumer debt portfolios," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 21-38.
    4. Sumit Agarwal & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2007. "The Reaction of Consumer Spending and Debt to Tax Rebates-Evidence from Consumer Credit Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 986-1019, December.
    5. Kim, Hyeongjun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2018. "An empirical study on credit card loan delinquency," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 437-449.
    6. Felicia Ionescu & Marius Ionescu, 2012. "The Interplay Between Student Loans and Credit Cards: Implications for Default," Working Papers 2012-014, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    7. So Yeon Chun & Miguel A. Lejeune, 2020. "Risk-Based Loan Pricing: Portfolio Optimization Approach with Marginal Risk Contribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(8), pages 3735-3753, August.
    8. Malik, Madhur & Thomas, Lyn C., 2012. "Transition matrix models of consumer credit ratings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 261-272.
    9. Thomas, Lyn C., 2009. "Modelling the credit risk for portfolios of consumer loans: Analogies with corporate loan models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 2525-2534.
    10. Desai, Chintal Ajitbhai, 2017. "The cross-section of consumer lending risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 256-282.
    11. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2015. "Do Consumers Choose the Right Credit Contracts?," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 239-257.
    12. Chintal Desai & Gregory Elliehausen & Edward Lawrence, 2014. "On the County-Level Credit Outcome Beta," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 201-218, April.
    13. Agarwal, Sumit & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Liu, Chunlin & Souleles, Nicholas S., 2005. "Do consumers choose the right credit contracts?," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/32, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    14. Yan Yuan & Toshiyuki Sueyoshi, 2017. "Effects of balance transfer offers on consumer short-term finance: evidence from credit card data," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 6(1), pages 1-30, December.
    15. Scholnick, Barry, 2009. "Credit card use after the final mortgage payment: does the magnitude of income shocks matter?," Working Paper Series 1142, European Central Bank.
    16. Cheng, X. & Degryse, H.A., 2010. "Information Sharing and Credit Rationing : Evidence from the Introduction of a Public Credit Registry," Other publications TiSEM cd9dc3c1-4146-4d2a-8a9a-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    17. Chintal Desai & Andre Mollick, 2014. "On Consumer Credit Outcomes in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 91-115, February.
    18. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Chunlin Liu & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2010. "Benefits of relationship banking: evidence from consumer credit markets," Working Paper Series WP-2010-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    19. Joanna Stavins, 2020. "Credit Card Debt and Consumer Payment Choice: What Can We Learn from Credit Bureau Data?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 59-90, August.
    20. Pedersen, Michael, 2018. "Credit risk and monetary pass-through—Evidence from Chile," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 144-158.
    21. Kristopher Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul Willen, 2008. "Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 69-159.
    22. Chen, Shou & Jiang, Xiangqian & He, Hongbo & Zhou, Xi, 2020. "A pricing model with dynamic repayment flows for guaranteed consumer loans," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-11.
    23. Oh, Joon-Hee & Johnston, Wesley J., 2014. "Credit lender–borrower relationship in the credit card market – Implications for credit risk management strategy and relationship marketing," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1086-1095.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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