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The Future of U.S. Economic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • John G. Fernald
  • Charles I. Jones
Abstract
Modern growth theory suggests that more than 3/4 of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, U.S. economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • John G. Fernald & Charles I. Jones, 2014. "The Future of U.S. Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 19830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19830
    Note: EFG
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph Zeira, 1998. "Workers, Machines, and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1091-1117.
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    7. repec:oup:qjecon:v:129:y:2013:i:1:p:61-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Samuel S. Kortum, 1997. "Research, Patenting, and Technological Change," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1389-1420, November.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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