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Explaining Recent Trends in the U.S. Teen Birth Rate

Author

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  • Melissa Schettini Kearney
  • Phillip B. Levine
Abstract
We investigate trends in the U.S. rate of teen childbearing between 1981 and 2010, giving particular attention to the sizable decline that has occurred since 1991. Our primary focus is on establishing the role of state-level demographic changes, economic conditions, and targeted policies in driving recent aggregate trends. We offer three main observations. First, the recent decline cannot be explained by the changing racial and ethnic composition of teens; in fact, all else equal, a rising share of Hispanic teens would have led to an increase in teen childbearing. A temporary increase in the share of teens aged 18-19 can account for nearly half of the transitory increase in teen childbearing around 1991. Second, the only targeted policies that have had a statistically discernible impact on teen birth rates are declining welfare benefits and expanded access to family planning services through Medicaid. However, the combined effect of these two policies is estimated to account for only 12 percent of the observed decline in teen childbearing from 1991-2010. Third, weak labor market conditions, as measured by the unemployment rate, do appear to lead to lower teen birth rates and can account for 28 percent of the decline in teen birth rates since the Great Recession began.

Suggested Citation

  • Melissa Schettini Kearney & Phillip B. Levine, 2012. "Explaining Recent Trends in the U.S. Teen Birth Rate," NBER Working Papers 17964, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17964
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Melissa S. Kearney & Phillip B. Levine, 2015. "Media Influences on Social Outcomes: The Impact of MTV's 16 and Pregnant on Teen Childbearing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(12), pages 3597-3632, December.
    2. Robert Cherry & Chun Wang, 2015. "Labor Market Conditions and US Teen Birth Rates, 2001–2009," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 408-420, September.
    3. Shoshana Grossbard & Victoria Vernon, 2017. "Common Law Marriage and Teen Births," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 129-145, March.
    4. Chloe N. East & Sarah Miller & Marianne Page & Laura R. Wherry, 2023. "Multigenerational Impacts of Childhood Access to the Safety Net: Early Life Exposure to Medicaid and the Next Generation's Health," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(1), pages 98-135, January.
    5. Melissa S. Kearney & Phillip B. Levine, 2012. "Why Is the Teen Birth Rate in the United States So High and Why Does It Matter?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 141-163, Spring.
    6. Jennifer Manlove & Quentin Karpilow & Kate Welti & Adam Thomas, 2015. "Linking Changes in Contraceptive Use to Declines in Teen Pregnancy Rates," Societies, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-14, December.
    7. Paula England & Lawrence Wu & Emily Shafer, 2013. "Cohort Trends in Premarital First Births: What Role for the Retreat From Marriage?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(6), pages 2075-2104, December.
    8. Jennifer Trudeau, 2016. "The role of new media on teen sexual behaviors and fertility outcomes—the case of 16 and Pregnant," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 82(3), pages 975-1003, January.
    9. Frank Furstenberg, 2016. "Reconsidering Teenage Pregnancy and Parenthood," Societies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-8, November.
    10. Rafael Novella & Laura Ripani, 2016. "Are you (not) expecting? The unforeseen benefits of job training on teenage pregnancy," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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