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Lead and Mortality

Author

Listed:
  • Karen Clay
  • Werner Troesken
  • Michael R. Haines
Abstract
This paper examines the effect of water-borne lead exposure on infant mortality in American cities over the period 1900-1920. Infants are highly sensitive to lead, and more broadly are a marker for current environmental conditions. The effects of lead on infant mortality are identified by variation across cities in water acidity and the types of service pipes that the water ran through - lead, iron, or concrete - which together determined the extent of lead exposure. Estimates that restrict the sample to cities with lead pipes and panel estimates provide further support for the causal link between water-borne lead and infant mortality. The magnitudes of the effects were large. In 1900, a decline in exposure equivalent to an increase in pH from 6.675 (25th percentile) to 7.3 (50th percentile) in cities with lead-only pipes would have been associated with a decrease in infant mortality of 7 to 33 percent or at least 12 fewer infant deaths per 1,000 live births. This paper examines the effect of water-borne lead exposure on infant mortality in American cities over the period 1900-1920. Infants are highly sensitive to lead, and more broadly are a marker for current environmental conditions. The effects of lead on infant mortality are identified by variation across cities in water acidity and the types of service pipes that the water ran through - lead, iron, or concrete - which together determined the extent of lead exposure. Estimates that restrict the sample to cities with lead pipes and panel estimates provide further support for the causal link between water-borne lead and infant mortality. The magnitudes of the effects were large. In 1900, a decline in exposure equivalent to an increase in pH from 6.675 (25th percentile) to 7.3 (50th percentile) in cities with lead-only pipes would have been associated with a decrease in infant mortality of 7 to 33 percent or at least 12 fewer infant deaths per 1,000 live births.

Suggested Citation

  • Karen Clay & Werner Troesken & Michael R. Haines, 2010. "Lead and Mortality," NBER Working Papers 16480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16480
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    Cited by:

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    2. Daniel S. Grossman & David J.G. Slusky, 2019. "The Impact of the Flint Water Crisis on Fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(6), pages 2005-2031, December.
    3. Ziebarth, N. R. & Schmitt, M. & Karlsson, M., 2013. "The short-term population health effects of weather and pollution: implications of climate change," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 13/34, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Cozzi, Guido & Galli, Silvia & Mantovan, Noemi, 2018. "Will a shrink make you richer? Gender differences in the effects of psychotherapy on labour efficiency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 257-274.
    5. Gazze, Ludovica & Heissel, Jennifer, 2021. "Infrastructure upgrades and lead exposure: Do cities face trade-offs when replacing water mains?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Davide Cantoni & Noam Yuchtman, 2020. "Historical Natural Experiments: Bridging Economics and Economic History," NBER Working Papers 26754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Peter Juul Egedesø & Casper Worm Hansen & Peter Sandholt Jensen, 2020. "Preventing the White Death: Tuberculosis Dispensaries," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(629), pages 1288-1316.
    8. Hyde, Kelly, 2020. "The Regressive Costs of Drinking Water Contaminant Avoidance," GLO Discussion Paper Series 703, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Alex Hollingsworth & Ivan Rudik, 2021. "The Effect of Leaded Gasoline on Elderly Mortality: Evidence from Regulatory Exemptions," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 345-373, August.
    10. Ferrie, Joseph P. & Rolf, Karen & Troesken, Werner, 2012. "Cognitive disparities, lead plumbing, and water chemistry: Prior exposure to water-borne lead and intelligence test scores among World War Two U.S. Army enlistees," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 98-111.
    11. Pang, Yu, 2018. "Profitable pollution abatement? A worker productivity perspective," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 33-49.
    12. Clay, Karen & Egedesø, Peter Juul & Hansen, Casper Worm & Jensen, Peter Sandholt & Calkins, Avery, 2020. "Controlling tuberculosis? Evidence from the first community-wide health experiment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    13. Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren, 2018. "Explaining declines in US rural mortality, 1910–1933: The role of county health departments," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 42-72.
    14. Tomás Rau & Loreto Reyes & Sergio S. Urzúa, 2013. "The Long-term Effects of Early Lead Exposure: Evidence from a case of Environmental Negligence," NBER Working Papers 18915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Feigenbaum, James J. & Muller, Christopher, 2016. "Lead exposure and violent crime in the early twentieth century," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 51-86.
    16. Knutsson, Daniel, 2017. "Water Improvement and Health: Historical Evidence on the Effect of Filtering Water on Urban Mortality," Research Papers in Economics 2017:2, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    17. Joshua Graff Zivin & Matthew Neidell, 2013. "Environment, Health, and Human Capital," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 689-730, September.
    18. Nicole Gorton & Maxim L. Pinkovskiy, 2021. "Credit Access and Mobility during the Flint Water Crisis," Staff Reports 960, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. Mettetal, Elizabeth, 2019. "Irrigation dams, water and infant mortality: Evidence from South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 17-40.
    20. Federico Curci & Federico Masera, 2018. "Flight from urban blight: lead poisoning, crime and suburbanization," Working Papers 2018/09, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    21. Zhang, Ruohao & Li, Huan & Khanna, Neha, 2021. "Environmental justice and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from New York State," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    22. Meyers, Keith A., 2017. "In the Shadow of the Mushroom Cloud: Nuclear Testing, Radioactive Fallout and Damage to U.S. Agriculture," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258121, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    23. Joseph P. Ferrie & Karen Rolf & Werner Troesken, 2011. "Cognitive Disparities, Lead Plumbing, and Water Chemistry: Intelligence Test Scores and Exposure to Water-Borne Lead Among World War Two U.S. Army Enlistees," NBER Working Papers 17161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • N31 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N32 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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