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Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors: A panel VAR approach

Author

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  • Stéphane Dées
  • Jochen Güntner
Abstract
This paper uses a panel VAR (PVAR) approach to estimating, analysing and forecasting price dynamics in four different sectors - industry, services, construction, and agriculture - across the four largest euro area economies - Germany, France, Italy and Spain - and the euro area as a whole. By modelling prices together with real activity, employment and wages, we can disentangle the role of unit labour costs and profit margins as the factors affecting price pressures on the supply side. In out-of-sample forecast exercises, the PVAR model fares comparatively well against common alternatives, although short-horizon forecast errors tend to be large when we consider only the period of the recent financial crisis. The second part of the paper focuses on Spain, for which prediction errors during the crisis are particularly large. Given that its economy faced dramatic sectoral changes due to the burst of a housing bubble, we use the PVAR model for studying the transmission of shocks originating from the Spanish construction sector to other sectors. In a multi-country extension of the model, we also allow for spillovers to the other euro area countries in our sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Stéphane Dées & Jochen Güntner, 2014. "Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors: A panel VAR approach," Economics working papers 2014-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    • Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2014_10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Clara De Luigi & Martin Feldkircher & Philipp Poyntner & Helene Schuberth, 2019. "Effects of the ECB’s Unconventional Monetary Policy on Real and Financial Wealth," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp286, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
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    6. Ivana Velkovska & Borce Trenovski, 2023. "Economic growth or social expenditure: what is more effective in decreasing poverty and income inequality in the EU - a panel VAR approach," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 111-142.
    7. Alexandru Avram & Ana-Cristina Nicolescu & Costin Daniel Avram & Roxana Loredana Dan, 2019. "Financial Communication in the Context of Corporate Social Responsibility Growth," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 21(52), pages 623-623, August.
    8. Marszk, Adam & Lechman, Ewa, 2019. "New technologies and diffusion of innovative financial products: Evidence on exchange-traded funds in selected emerging and developed economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Boris B. Demeshev & Oxana A. Malakhovskaya, 2015. "Forecasting Russian Macroeconomic Indicators with BVAR," HSE Working papers WP BRP 105/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    10. Zharova, Alona & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Lessmann, Stefan, 2017. "Is scientific performance a function of funds?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2017-028, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cost pressures; forecasting; impulse response analysis; panel VAR models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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