Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jau/wpaper/2019-08.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Current account and structural change in European transition economies

Author

Listed:
  • Simeon Coleman

    (School of Business and Economics, Loughborough University, UK)

  • Juan Carlos Cuestas

    (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)

Abstract
How have the transition economies’ current accounts evolved? How similar are the factors that have influenced their evolution in each of these countries? In this paper, we examine the evolution of the current account in Central and Eastern European countries and the relationship with the main fundamentals. We employ dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and Threshold Estimation methods to examine the relationship with its main fundamentals (i.e., the Real Exchange Rate, Terms of Trade, Investment, Government Consumption and Income). Our results suggest that the long-run determinants of the current account have indeed changed over time. In addition, the threshold cointegrated estimates show that the parameters are dependent on thresholds for certain variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2019. "Current account and structural change in European transition economies," Working Papers 2019/08, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  • Handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2019/08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.doctreballeco.uji.es/wpficheros/Coleman_and_Cuestas_08_2019.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
    2. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
    3. Hubert Gabrisch & Karsten Staehr, 2015. "The Euro Plus Pact: Competitiveness and External Capital Flows in the EU Countries," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3), pages 558-576, May.
    4. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Paulo Jose Regis, 2016. "On the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and External Imbalances: Should we Learn from East and South-east Asia?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(2), pages 255-280, November.
    5. Christopoulos, Dimitris & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "Current account sustainability in the US: What did we really know about it?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 442-459, April.
    6. Juncal Cunado & Luis A Gil-Alana & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2010. "European Current Account Sustainability: New Evidence Based On Unit Roots and Fractional Integration," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 177-187, Spring.
    7. Mr. Paul Cashin & Mr. C. John McDermott, 1998. "Terms of Trade Shocks and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 1998/177, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    9. Behringer, Jan & van Treeck, Till, 2018. "Income distribution and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 238-254.
    10. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    11. Jaewoo Lee & Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "The Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate: A Structural VAR Analysis of Major Currencies," NBER Working Papers 6495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Maas, Daniel & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian K., 2018. "Current account dynamics and the housing cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 22-43.
    13. Bouakez, Hafedh & Kano, Takashi, 2008. "Terms of trade and current account fluctuations: The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect revisited," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 260-281, March.
    14. Simeon Coleman, 2008. "Estimating Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in the Franc Zone," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 17(4), pages 600-634, August.
    15. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2007. "Dynamics of fiscal and current account deficits in Thailand: an empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(6), pages 454-475, November.
    16. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    17. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Staehr, Karsten, 2014. "Government debt dynamics and the global financial crisis: Has anything changed in the EA12?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 64-66.
    18. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2013. "The Current Account Sustainability of European Transition Economies," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 232-245, March.
    19. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    20. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
    21. Kersti Harkmann & Karsten Staehr, 2019. "Current account dynamics and exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2018-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 23 Jan 2019.
    22. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Diaz-Roldan, 2009. "Does the balance of payments constrain economic growth? Some evidence for the new EU members," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 41-46.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Coleman, Simeon & Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2021. "Panel cointegration, quantile regressions, asymmetric adjustments and crises: The case of EU current accounts," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2023. "Has the current account broken up with its fundamentals in Central and Eastern Europe?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 962-980, January.
    2. Coleman, Simeon & Cuestas, Juan Carlos, 2021. "Panel cointegration, quantile regressions, asymmetric adjustments and crises: The case of EU current accounts," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).
    3. Cuestas, Juan Carlos & Monfort, Mercedes & Ordóñez, Javier, 2024. "Have real exchange rates and competitiveness in Central and Eastern Europe fundamentally changed?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 618-628.
    4. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Mercedes Monfort & Javier Ordoñez, 2019. "Real exchange rates and competitiveness in Central and Eastern Europe: have they fundamentally changed?," Working Papers 2019/12, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    5. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Mercedes Monfort, 2021. "Current account sustainability in Central and Eastern Europe: structural change and crisis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 141-153, February.
    6. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Paulo José Regis, 2015. "The Sustainability of European External Debt: What have We Learned?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 445-468, August.
    7. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Paolo Jose Regis, 2014. "On the changes in the sustainability of European external debt: what have we learned," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.
    8. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2019. "The current account sustainability in Central and Eastern Europe: Has it changed?," Working Papers 2019/10, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    9. Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2024. "On the evolution of competitiveness in Central and Eastern Europe: Is it broken?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2911-2926, July.
    10. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2020. "Changes in sovereign debt dynamics in Central and Eastern Europe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 63-71, January.
    11. Kanjilal, Kakali & Ghosh, Sajal, 2017. "Dynamics of crude oil and gold price post 2008 global financial crisis – New evidence from threshold vector error-correction model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 358-365.
    12. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    13. Cró, Susana & Martins, António Miguel, 2017. "Structural breaks in international tourism demand: Are they caused by crises or disasters?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 3-9.
    14. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2006. "Forecasting of small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Research Working Paper RWP 06-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    15. Pegkas Panagiotis, 2019. "Government Debt and Economic Growth. A Threshold Analysis for Greece," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 25(1), pages 1-6, February.
    16. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2019. "Quantile regressions, asymmetric adjustment and crisis: the case of EU real exchange rates," Working Papers 2019/09, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    17. Chen, Jing & Buckland, Roger & Williams, Julian, 2011. "Regulatory changes, market integration and spillover effects in the Chinese A, B and Hong Kong equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 351-373, September.
    18. Yahya, Muhammad & Kanjilal, Kakali & Dutta, Anupam & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Ghosh, Sajal, 2021. "Can clean energy stock price rule oil price? New evidences from a regime-switching model at first and second moments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    19. Mishra, Brajesh & Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2020. "Evaluation of import substitution strategy in Indian telecom sector: Empirical evidence of non-linear dynamics," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(7).
    20. Neely, Christopher J., 2022. "How persistent are unconventional monetary policy effects?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Current account; Central and Eastern Europe; structural breaks; European integration.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jau:wpaper:2019/08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: María Aurora Garcia Gallego (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ueujies.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.