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Riding the Storm: Fiscal Sustainability in the Caribbean

Author

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  • Mr. Serhan Cevik
  • Vibha Nanda
Abstract
Fiscal sustainability remains a paramount challenge for small economies with high debt and greater vulnerability to climate change. This paper applies the model-based sustainability test for fiscal policy in a panel of 16 Caribbean countries during the period 1980–2018. The results indicate that the coefficient on lagged government debt is positive and statistically significant, implying that fiscal policy in the Caribbean takes corrective actions to counteract an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio. Nonlinear estimations, however, show that the quadratic debt parameter is negative, which indicates that fiscal policy response is not adequate to ensure sustainability at higher levels of debt. We also find that the fiscal stance tends to be countercyclical on average during the sample period. These empirical results confirm that maintaining prudent fiscal policies and implementing growth-enhancing structural reforms are necessary to build fiscal buffers and ensure debt sustainability with high probability even when negative shocks occur over the long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Serhan Cevik & Vibha Nanda, 2020. "Riding the Storm: Fiscal Sustainability in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 2020/021, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2020/021
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    2. Eleftherios Giovanis & Oznur Ozdamar, 2022. "The impact of climate change on budget balances and debt in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-27, June.
    3. Mr. Serhan Cevik, 2019. "Back to the Future: Fiscal Rules for Regaining Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 2019/242, International Monetary Fund.

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