Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2016-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Chinese Imports: What’s Behind the Slowdown?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Joong S Kang
  • Wei Liao
Abstract
Real imports in China have decelerated significantly over the last two years to below 4 percent (yoy) from double-digit growth in previous years. Weaker investment, partly due to progress in rebalancing from investment to consumption, has been the main factor accounting for about 40–50 percent of slowdown during this period. Weaker exports also account for about 40 percent of slowdown, of which about a quarter is due to stronger RMB. Onshoring—substitution of imported intermediate inputs with domestic production—has not been an additional drag over this period but it continues to slow import growth at a similar pace as previous periods. There is large uncertainty about the impact of rebalancing on the import slowdown due to difficulties in identifying the counterfactual nonrebalancing path.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Joong S Kang & Wei Liao, 2016. "Chinese Imports: What’s Behind the Slowdown?," IMF Working Papers 2016/106, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43926
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2012. "Are Chinese trade flows different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2127-2146.
    2. Menzie Chinn, 2006. "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 115-143, January.
    3. Pol Antras & Davin Chor & Thibault Fally & Russell Hillberry, 2012. "Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 412-416, May.
    4. Thorbecke Willem, 2006. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi Affect the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-17, December.
    5. David Parsley & Helen Popper, 2010. "Understanding Real Exchange Rate Movements With Trade In Intermediate Products," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 171-188, May.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2006_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August.
    8. Koen De Backer & Norihiko Yamano, 2007. "The Measurement of Globalisation using International Input-Output Tables," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2007/8, OECD Publishing.
    9. Devereux, Michael B. & Genberg, Hans, 2007. "Currency appreciation and current account adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 570-586, June.
    10. Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2012. "Are Chinese Imports Sensitive To Exchange Rate Changes?," China Economic Policy Review (CEPR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 1-15.
    11. Jaime Marquez & John Schindler, 2007. "Exchange‐rate Effects on China's Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 837-853, November.
    12. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    13. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Upward, Richard & Wang, Zheng & Zheng, Jinghai, 2013. "Weighing China’s export basket: The domestic content and technology intensity of Chinese exports," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 527-543.
    15. repec:zbw:bofitp:2007_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Matthieu Bussière & Giovanni Callegari & Fabio Ghironi & Giulia Sestieri & Norihiko Yamano, 2013. "Estimating Trade Elasticities: Demand Composition and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 118-151, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Felipe, Jesus & Lanzafame, Matteo, 2020. "The PRC's long-run growth through the lens of the export-led growth model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 163-181.
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Weltkonjunktur im Herbst 2016 - Weltkonjunktur gewinnt vorerst nur wenig Schwung [World Economy Autumn 2016 - World economic growth to pick up only gradually]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 21, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/q2oq3eedv82ephg1u2r8ae2cs is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/q2oq3eedv82ephg1u2r8ae2cs is not listed on IDEAS
    6. World Bank Group, 2017. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 25823.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2012. "Are Chinese trade flows different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2127-2146.
    2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2012. "Are Chinese trade flows different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2127-2146.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Menzie Chinn, 2014. "Global supply chains and macroeconomic relationships in Asia," Chapters, in: Benno Ferrarini & David Hummels (ed.), Asia and Global Production Networks, chapter 8, pages 249-286, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Xingwang Qian, 2016. "China–US trade flow behavior: the implications of alternative exchange rate measures and trade classifications," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 43-67, February.
    6. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson, 2017. "Demand for Value Added and Value-Added Exchange Rates," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 45-90, October.
    7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 231-271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_023 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2016. "Value-added Trade, Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Trade Elasticity: Revisiting the Trade Competitiveness," 2016 Papers pud11, Job Market Papers.
    10. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Xingwang Qian, 2014. "The Structural Behavior of China-US Trade Flows," CESifo Working Paper Series 5123, CESifo.
    11. Sun, Chuanwang & Zhan, Yanhong & Gao, Xiang, 2023. "Does environmental regulation increase domestic value-added in exports? An empirical study of cleaner production standards in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    12. Bems, Rudolfs, 2014. "Intermediate inputs, external rebalancing and relative price adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 248-262.
    13. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2014. "Global Value Chains: Surveying Drivers, Measures and Impacts," Working Papers w201403, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    14. Marcel P. Timmer & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2021. "Supply Chain Fragmentation and the Global Trade Elasticity: A New Accounting Framework," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(4), pages 656-680, December.
    15. He, Yaxing & Huo, Weidong & Yu, Jie, 2023. "Tracing the regional dual value chains: Measurement on the production position and evidence from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    16. Wen Chen & Lizhi Xing, 2022. "Measuring the Intermediate Goods’ External Dependency on the Global Value Chain: A Case Study of China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-21, April.
    17. Yin-Wong Cheung & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2020. "A Tale of Two Surplus Countries: China and Germany," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 131-158, February.
    18. Lin Chen & Sumei Luo & Tian Zhao, 2019. "Financial Constraints, Trade Mode Transition, and Global Value Chain Upgrading of Chinese Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-18, August.
    19. Marc Auboin & Floriana Borino, 2018. "The Falling Elasticity of Global Trade to Economic Activity: Testing the Demand Channel," CESifo Working Paper Series 7228, CESifo.
    20. Auboin, Marc & Borino, Floriana, 2017. "The falling elasticity of global trade to economic activity: Testing the demand channel," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2017-09, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    21. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "Measuring Renminbi Misalignment: Where Do We Stand?," Working Papers 242010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    22. Felice, Giulia & Tajoli, Lucia, 2021. "Trade balances and global value chains: Is there a link?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 228-246.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.