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Global Financial Shocks and Foreign Asset Repatriation: Do Local Investors Play a Stabilizing Role?

Author

Listed:
  • Gustavo Adler
  • Marie-Louise Djigbenou
  • Mr. Sebastian Sosa
Abstract
We study the dynamic response of gross capital flows in emerging market economies to different global financial shocks, using a panel vector-autoregressive (PVAR) setting. Our focus lies primarily on the potentially stabilizing role played by domestic investors in offsetting the response of foreign investors to global shocks. We find evidence of such role, but its existence and magnitude depend on the nature of the shock. Local investors play a meaningful stabilizing role in the face of global uncertainty shocks, as well as shocks to long-term U.S. interest rates. However, while in the former case, sizeable asset repatriation largely offsets the retrenchment of non-residents, in the latter case the extent of the offsetting is much more limited. Meanwhile, residents and non-resident behave alike in response to short-term U.S. interest rate shocks, pulling capital away from emerging markets, although magnitudes are not economically significant. The results shed light on the potential impact of the Fed’s QE tapering on emerging market economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Adler & Marie-Louise Djigbenou & Mr. Sebastian Sosa, 2014. "Global Financial Shocks and Foreign Asset Repatriation: Do Local Investors Play a Stabilizing Role?," IMF Working Papers 2014/060, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/060
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    7. Xichen Wang & Cheng Yan, 2022. "Does the Relative Importance of the Push and Pull Factors of Foreign Capital Flows Vary Across Quantiles?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 252-299, June.
    8. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Alejandro Jara, 2016. "Facing volatile capital flows: the role of exchange rate flexibility and foreign assets," Chapters, in: Dongsoo Kang & Andrew Mason (ed.), Macroprudential Regulation of International Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 21427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Pinter, Julien & Pourroy, Marc, 2023. "How can financial constraints force a central bank to exit a currency peg? An application to the Swiss franc peg," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
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    12. Horvath, Jaroslav & Zhong, Jiansheng, 2019. "Unemployment dynamics in emerging countries: Monetary policy and external shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 31-49.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; interest rate; investor; asset; net capital; capital flows; gross capital flows; foreign assets; global financial shocks; interest rate shock; asset repatriation; net capital capital inflow; EME's exposure; EMES' vulnerability; Capital inflows; Short term interest rates; Long term interest rates; Global; Europe; Asia and Pacific;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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