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The Economics of Political Transitions: Implications for the Arab Spring

Author

Listed:
  • Padamja Khandelwal
  • Agustin Roitman
Abstract
Over the past two years, ongoing political transitions in many Arab countries have led to social unrest and an economic downturn. This paper examines comparable historical episodes of political instability to derive implications for the near- and medium-term economic outlook in the Arab countries in transition. In general, past episodes of political instability were characterized by a sharp deterioration in macroeconomic outcomes and a sluggish recovery over the medium term. Recent economic developments in the Arab countries in transition seem to be unfolding along similar lines, although the weak external environment and large fiscal vulnerabilities could result in a prolonged slump.

Suggested Citation

  • Padamja Khandelwal & Agustin Roitman, 2013. "The Economics of Political Transitions: Implications for the Arab Spring," IMF Working Papers 2013/069, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/069
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Marek Dabrowski, 2014. "Macroeconomic and fiscal challenges faced by the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean region," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0471, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    2. Di, Li & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf & Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich, 2021. "The power of investor sentiment in explaining bank stock performance: Listed conventional vs. Islamic banks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Tammuz Alraheb & Amine Tarazi, 2016. "Local Versus International Crises, Foreign Subsidiaries and Bank Stability: Evidence from the MENA Region," Working Papers 1045, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2016.
    4. Driouchi, Ahmed & Harkat, Tahar, 2017. "Granger Causality and the Factors underlying the Role of Younger Generations in Economic, Social and Political Changes in Arab Countries," MPRA Paper 77218, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Tammuz H. Alraheb & Amine Tarazi, 2018. "Local versus International Crises and Bank Stability: does bank foreign expansion make a difference?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(10), pages 1138-1155, February.
    6. Antoine Levy & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Alejandro M. Werner, 2020. "The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations," IMF Working Papers 2020/220, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Bougharriou, Nouha & Benayed, Walid & Gabsi, Foued Badr, 2022. "Democratic transition and fiscal policy in the Arab world," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    8. Bitar, Mohammad & Hassan, M. Kabir & Walker, Thomas, 2017. "Political systems and the financial soundness of Islamic banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 18-44.
    9. Ghosh, Saibal, 2016. "Political transition and bank performance: How important was the Arab Spring?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 372-382.
    10. Arayssi, Mahmoud & Fakih, Ali, 2017. "Finance–growth nexus in a changing political region: How important was the Arab Spring?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 106-123.
    11. Marwa Elnahass & Mohamed Marie & Mohammed Elgammal, 2022. "Terrorist attacks and bank financial stability: evidence from MENA economies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 383-427, July.

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