Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hkm/wpaper/182002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do We Really KNow that the WTO Increases Trade?

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew K. Rose

    (University of California, Berkeley
    NBER and CEPR)

Abstract
This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) extended from rich countries to developing countries. I use a standard "gravity" model of bilateral merchandise trade and a large panel data set covering over 50 years and 175 countries. An extensive search reveals little evidence that countries joining or belonging to the GATT/WTO have different trade patterns than outsiders. The GSP does seem to have a strong effect, and is associated with an approximate doubling of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really KNow that the WTO Increases Trade?," Working Papers 182002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:182002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/291/ub_full_0_2_30_wp200218_text.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, April.
    3. Kearl, J R, et al, 1979. "A Confusion of Economists?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 28-37, May.
    4. Alan V. Deardorff, 2011. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert M Stern (ed.), Comparative Advantage, Growth, And The Gains From Trade And Globalization A Festschrift in Honor of Alan V Deardorff, chapter 24, pages 267-293, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Christian Gourieroux & Alain Monfort, 1981. "On the Problem of Missing Data in Linear Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(4), pages 579-586.
    6. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alston, Richard M & Kearl, J R & Vaughan, Michael B, 1992. "Is There a Consensus among Economists in the 1990's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 203-209, May.
    8. Griliches, Zvi, 1986. "Economic data issues," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1465-1514, Elsevier.
    9. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Measuring outward orientation in LDCs: Can it be done?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 307-335, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hans Genberg & Laurent Pauwels, 2003. "Inlation in Hong Kong, SAR- In Search of a Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers 012003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Simon Guttmann & Anthony Richards, 2006. "Trade Openness: An Australian Perspective," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 188-203, September.
    3. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2011. "The Limits to Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie & Heuchemer, Sylvia, 2016. "The resurgence of cultural borders during the financial crisis: The changing geography of Eurozone cross-border depositing," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 12-26.
    5. Bahar, Dany & Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar A., 2014. "Neighbors and the evolution of the comparative advantage of nations: Evidence of international knowledge diffusion?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 111-123.
    6. Salvador Gil & Rafael Llorca & J. Antonio Martínez‐Serrano, 2008. "Assessing the Enlargement and Deepening of the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1253-1272, September.
    7. Clougherty, Joseph A. & Grajek, Michał, 2014. "International standards and international trade: Empirical evidence from ISO 9000 diffusion," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 70-82.
    8. Mr. Rikhil Bhavnani & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Mr. Arvind Subramanian & Mr. David T. Coe, 2002. "The Missing Globalization Puzzle," IMF Working Papers 2002/171, International Monetary Fund.
    9. James Harrigan, 2001. "Specialization and the Volume of Trade: Do the Data Obey the Laws?," NBER Working Papers 8675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466.
    11. Do, Quy-Toan & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2007. "Comparative advantage, demand for external finance, and financial development," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 796-834, December.
    12. Stephen Redding & Anthony Venables, 2004. "Geography and Export Performance: External Market Access and Internal Supply Capacity," NBER Chapters, in: Challenges to Globalization: Analyzing the Economics, pages 95-127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Céline Carrère & Maurice Schiff, 2005. "On the Geography of Trade. Distance is Alive and Well," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 56(6), pages 1249-1274.
    14. Henry Overman & Stephen Redding & Anthony J. Venables, 2001. "The Economic Geography of Trade, Production, and Income: A Survey of Empirics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0508, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    15. Florian Mölders & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "Trade creation and the status of FTAs: empirical evidence from East Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(3), pages 429-456, September.
    16. Huang, Rocco R., 2007. "Distance and trade: Disentangling unfamiliarity effects and transport cost effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 161-181, January.
    17. Jean-Marc Siroën & Aycil Yucer, 2012. "The impact of MERCOSUR on trade of Brazilian states," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(3), pages 553-582, September.
    18. Dalila Chenaf-Nicet & Eric Rougier, 2016. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Instability on FDI Flows: A Gravity Estimation of the Impact of Regional Integration in the Case of Euro-Mediterranean Agreements," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 145, pages 66-91.
    19. Kubendran, Narayanasamy, 2020. "Trade Relation between India and other BRICS Countries: A Multidimensional Approach," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(2), pages 237-256.
    20. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7077 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Fabbri, D & Robone, S, 2008. "The geography of hospital admission in a National Health Service with patient choice: evidence from Italy," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 08/29, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    empirical; bilateral; panel; gravity; GATT; GSP; international; multilateral; panel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:182002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HKIMR (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hkimrhk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.