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Importing under trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China

Author

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  • Michele Imbruno

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
This paper empirically explores imports' adjustment to reductions in trade policy uncertainty (TPU) considering that firms may face large sunk costs to purchase foreign goods. We investigate how product-level Chinese imports react to tariff binding connected to China's accession to WTO, through distinguishing both country-related margins and firm-related margins. Our main results suggest that a decline in TPU allows the access to a greater variety of foreign goods, associated also with a higher quality. At the same time, tariff binding leads more Chinese producers and trade intermediaries to start importing, allowing more firms and consumers to enjoy potential gains from imports. Finally, we document heterogeneous TPU effects across firms with different ownership, and products with different end use, revealing interesting insights in a context of global value chains.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Imbruno, 2018. "Importing under trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China," Working Papers halshs-01823910, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01823910
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01823910
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    3. Cali,Massimiliano & Ghose,Devaki & Montfaucon,Angella Faith Lapukeni & Ruta,Michele, 2022. "Trade Policy and Exporters’ Resilience : Evidence from Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10068, The World Bank.
    4. Li, Mengzhe & Lin, Qianru & Lan, Fei & Zhan, Zhimin & He, Zhongshi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and financial investment: Evidence from Chinese energy firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    5. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "Trade Policy Uncertainty Effects on Macro Economy and Financial Markets: An Integrated Survey and Empirical Investigation," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Yiping Sun & Chengjun Wu & Xiaoming Zhu & Pingguan Bian, 2022. "China’s Accession to the WTO as a Shock to Residents’ Health—A Difference-in-Difference Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-18, November.
    7. Zhou, Fengxiu & Wen, Huwei, 2022. "Trade policy uncertainty, development strategy, and export behavior: Evidence from listed industrial companies in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    8. Sun, Ting-Ting & Su, Chi-Wei & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "How does trade policy uncertainty affect agriculture commodity prices?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Anna Matzner & Birgit Meyer & Harald Oberhofer, 2023. "Trade in times of uncertainty," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(9), pages 2564-2597, September.
    10. Jie Ma & Rong Cai & Weifu Zhang, 2023. "Has the Decline in Trade Policy Uncertainty Promoted China’s Agricultural Exports?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-14, July.
    11. Weize Sun & Mingtao Yu & Haotian Zhang & Yifan Zhang, 2022. "Does Uncertainty of Trade Environment Promote Green Technological Innovation? Empirical Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, December.
    12. Xinwei Zhao & Xinsong Yang & Geng Peng & Shengjie Yue, 2023. "International Trade and Carbon Emissions: Evaluating the Role of Trade Rule Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-19, July.
    13. Shiyue Zhang & Alan R. Collins & Xiaoli L. Etienne & Rijia Ding, 2021. "The Environmental Effects of International Trade in China: Measuring the Mediating Effects of Technology Spillovers of Import Trade on Industrial Air Pollution," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-25, June.
    14. Ruxu Zhang & Yahui Qu, 2022. "The Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Trade Margins of China’s Export to the U.S," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-16, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade policy uncertainty; Import behaviour; World Trade Organization; Tariff binding; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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