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La Banque centrale européenne ou le Seigneur des euros

Author

Listed:
  • Jérôme Creel

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Jacky Fayolle

    (Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA)

Abstract
Cet article se livre à un essai de bilan des trois premières années d'exercice de la Banque centrale européenne, désormais unique maîtresse de la politique monétaire au sein de la zone euro. Ce bilan n'échappe pas à une certaine ambivalence : appréciée par rapport à la précarité de l'expansion et à la fugacité des risques d'inflation au sein de la zone, l'action de la BCE paraît contrainte par une cible d'inflation trop basse et par un horizon d'action trop court. Elle n'a pas échappé à un certain suivisme à l'égard des autorités monétaires américaines et des marchés financiers internationaux, lorsque le caractère plus synchrone de l'expansion mondiale, jusqu'en 2000, faisait craindre des risques d'inflation généralisée. Ce faisant, elle n'a pas su adopter un timing contribuant à affermir une expansion européenne encore fragile et n'a pas contré le ralentissement engagé en Europe dès le milieu de l'année 2000. Comparativement au comportement de la FED, apprécié dans des circonstances analogues, la BCE semble cependant plus pêcher par inertie que par excès de prévention -- que ce soit face aux risques d'inflation ou de récession. La FED sait être à la fois réactive et graduelle, si on entend par gradualisme la capacité à définir et mettre en œuvre en temps utile une orientation résolue, progressive et persévérante des taux d'intérêt à court terme. Celle-ci peut au départ surprendre les marchés, mais contribue à infléchir leurs anticipations et agit ainsi sur l'activité, en faisant partager par l'ensemble des acteurs économiques le diagnostic de la banque centrale. Au contraire, l'inertie désigne le retard et la discontinuité dans la prise de décisions monétaires adaptées à l'évolution conjoncturelle. L'inertie de la politique monétaire mise en œuvre par la BCE participe de l'ensemble des facteurs structurels et institutionnels qui handicapent en Europe la coopération des politiques économiques en direction du plein emploi. Si la BCE se veut l'héritière de la Bundesbank, les difficultés qu'elle rencontre pour susciter la confiance et consolider sa réputation la pousseront sans doute à prendre en compte les " bonnes pratiques " des banques centrales anglo-saxonnes et à dépasser la dualité de la stratégie dite des deux piliers, qui donne encore trop de poids au suivi des agrégats monétaires. Au demeurant, et quelles que soient les réserves que son action puisse susciter, il semble que la BCE ait été moins restrictive, durant les trois premières années de la zone euro, que ce qu'aurait été l'action de la Bundesbank dans des circonstances similaires.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Creel & Jacky Fayolle, 2002. "La Banque centrale européenne ou le Seigneur des euros," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01017819, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01017819
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.074.0175
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01017819
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    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2082 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jérôme Creel & Éloi Laurent & Jacques Le Cacheux, 2007. "Politiques et performances macroéconomiques de la zone euro. Institutions, incitations, stratégies," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 249-281.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jérôme Creel & Jacky Fayolle, 2002. "La Banque centrale et l'Union monétaire européennes : les tribulations de la crédibilité," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 211-244.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2139 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Florence Huart & Bas Van Aarle & Harry Garretsen, 2006. "Chocs et règles de politique économique en UEM," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 43-63.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2082 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2139 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Angel Asensio, 2007. "Inflation targeting drawbacks in the absence of a 'natural' anchor," Post-Print halshs-00189225, HAL.
    12. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2139 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2139 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jérôme Creel & Eloi Laurent & Jacques Le Cacheux, 2007. "Politiques et performances macroéconomiques de la zone euro," Post-Print hal-03459617, HAL.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2942 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ludovic Desmedt & Matthieu Llorca, 2016. "L’euro, le bourdon et le banquier central," Post-Print hal-01430375, HAL.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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