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Government Spending, Monetary Policy, and the Real Exchange Rate

Author

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  • Hafedh Bouakez

    (CIRPEE - Centre interuniversitaire sur le risque, les politiques économiques et l'emploi - Centre Interuniversitaire sur le Risque, les Politiques Economiques et l'Emploi, HEC Montréal - HEC Montréal)

  • Aurélien Eyquem

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon - Saint-Etienne - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - Université de Lyon - UJM - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
Both the traditional Mundell-Fleming-Dornbusch framework and standard dynamic general-equilibrium models with complete financial markets predict that an unanticipated increase in public spending in a given country appreciates its currency in real terms. This prediction, however, contradicts the findings of a number of recent empirical studies, which instead document a significant and persistent depreciation of the real exchange rate following an expansionary government spending shock. In this paper, we rationalize the findings of the empirical literature by proposing a small-open-economy model that features three key ingredients: incomplete and imperfect international financial markets, sticky prices, and a not-too-aggressive monetary policy. The model predicts that in response to an unexpected increase in public expenditure, the long-term real interest rate rises less than the country's debt elastic interest-rate premium. As a result, the long-term real interest rate differential vis-a-vis the rest of the world falls, leading the domestic currency to depreciate in real terms. We establish this result both analytically, within a special version of the model, and numerically for the more general case.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Hafedh Bouakez & Aurélien Eyquem, 2012. "Government Spending, Monetary Policy, and the Real Exchange Rate," Post-Print halshs-00958014, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00958014
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    3. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem & Paul Gomme, 2016. "A Tale Of Tax Policies In Open Economies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1299-1333, November.
    4. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan & Sheremirov, Viacheslav, 2019. "The effects of government spending on real exchange rates: Evidence from military spending panel data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 144-157.
    5. Ibrahim K. Sule and Mohammed Shuaibu, 2020. "Current Account Behavior, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and Relative Output in Nigeria," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 77-99, September.
    6. Andrea Salazar-Díaz & Aarón Levi Garavito-Acosta & Sergio Restrepo Ángel & Leidy Viviana Arcila-Agudelo, 2023. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Colombia: Thousands of VEC Models Approach," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 99, pages 33-78, July-Dece.
    7. Marie-Pierre HORY & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Daria ONORI, 2018. "The (low) fiscal multiplier when debt is denominated in foreign currency," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2583, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    8. Hory, Marie-Pierre & Levieuge, Grégory & Onori, Daria, 2021. "Public spending, currency mismatch and financial frictions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    9. Dennis Bonam & Jasper Lukkezen, 2013. "Government Spending Shocks, Sovereign Risk and the Exchange Rate Regime," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-212/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Jan 2013.
    10. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Azad, Nahiyan Faisal & Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2021. "Covid-19 and monetary–fiscal policy interactions in Canada," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 376-384.
    12. Diana Barros, Aurora A.C. Teixeira, 2021. "The technology balance of payments and international competitiveness: a panel data analysis of southern European countries, 2000-2017," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 18(1), pages 105-136, June.
    13. Dennis Bonam & Jasper Lukkezen, 2013. "Government Spending Shocks, Sovereign Risk and the Exchange Rate Regime," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-212/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Jan 2013.
    14. Ferdinand Owoundi & Jacques Landry Bikai, 2021. "On the neutrality of the exchange rate regime regarding real misalignments: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 327-345, July.
    15. Kim, Soyoung, 2015. "Country characteristics and the effects of government consumption shocks on the current account and real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 436-447.
    16. Ikhlaas Gurrib & Firuz Kamalov & Osama Atayah & Dalia Hemdan & Olga Starkova, 2024. "Long-Run Trade Relationship between the U.S. and Canada: The Case of the Canadian Dollar with the U.S. Dollar," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-21, September.
    17. Matteo Cacciatore & Nora Traum, 2022. "Trade Flows and Fiscal Multipliers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1206-1223, November.
    18. Mwankemwa, Lusajo P. & Ndanshau, Michael O.A., 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Fiscal Deficit on Monetary Policy Transmission in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 9(4), September.
    19. Di Giorgio, Giorgio & Nisticò, Salvatore & Traficante, Guido, 2018. "Government spending and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 55-73.
    20. Gnocchi, Stefano & Hauser, Daniela & Pappa, Evi, 2016. "Housework and fiscal expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 94-108.
    21. Rose Cunningham & Christian Friedrich & Kristina Hess & Min Jae Kim, 2017. "Understanding the Time Variation in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices," Discussion Papers 17-12, Bank of Canada.
    22. Ramona Tiganasu & Gabriela Carmen Pascariu & Dan Lupu, 2022. "Competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption: evidence from Central and Eastern European countries," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(3), pages 667-698, September.
    23. Xi Wang & Jiayang Li & Guangbin Zhang, 2022. "Mixed Monetary–Fiscal Policies and Macroeconomic Fluctuations: An Analysis Based on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(2), pages 167-196, March.
    24. Ngan Tran, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of fiscal balance on monetary variables: evidence from large emerging economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1045-1076, September.
    25. Leanghak Hok, 2020. "Competitiveness and government spending in Cambodia: An autoregressive distributed lag approach," Theory Methodology Practice (TMP), Faculty of Economics, University of Miskolc, vol. 16(02), pages 27-40.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; public spending shocks; small open economy; sticky prices; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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