Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00118834.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial market imperfections and the impact of exchange rate movements

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Berman

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Antoine Berthou

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
This paper analyses empirically the role of financial market imperfections in the way countries' exports react to a currency depreciation. Using quarterly data for 27 developed and developing countries over the period 1990-2005, we find that the impact of a depreciation on exports will be less positive - or even negative - for a country if: (i) firms borrow in foreign currency; (ii) they are credit constrained; (iii) they are specialized in industries that require more external capital; (iv) the magnitude of depreciation or devaluation is large. This last result emphasizes the existence of a non-linear relationship between an exchange rate depreciation and the reaction of a country's exports when financial imperfections are observed. This offers a new explanation for the consequences of recent currency crises in middle income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou, 2006. "Financial market imperfections and the impact of exchange rate movements," Post-Print halshs-00118834, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00118834
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00118834
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00118834/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Thorsten Beck, 2003. "Financial Dependence and International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 296-316, May.
    3. Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S., 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: A macro or micro phenomenon?," IESE Research Papers D/475, IESE Business School.
    4. Terra, Maria Cristina Trindade, 2003. "Credit Constraints in Brazilian Firms: Evidence from Panel Data," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 57(2), April.
    5. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1151-1193.
    6. John D. Burger & Francis E. Warnock, 2003. "Diversification, original sin, and international bond portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 755, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2004. "Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 883-913.
    8. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Francis Kramarz, 2011. "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence From French Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1453-1498, September.
    9. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    10. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    11. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Rupa Duttagupta & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2004. "What Happened to Asian Exports During the Crisis?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(1), pages 1-4.
    13. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
    14. Mr. Olivier D Jeanne, 2003. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency?," IMF Working Papers 2003/177, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Chihwa Kao & Min-Hsien Chiang, 1997. "On the Estimation and Inference of a Cointegrated Regression in Panel Data," Econometrics 9703001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
    17. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    18. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2003. "Credit Market Imperfections in Middle Income Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 960, CESifo.
    19. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    20. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    21. McKinnon, Ronald I. & Pill, Huw, 1998. "International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1267-1282, July.
    22. Gelos, R. Gaston & Werner, Alejandro M., 2002. "Financial liberalization, credit constraints, and collateral: investment in the Mexican manufacturing sector," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-27, February.
    23. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 2, pages 83-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. Aghion, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2005. "Volatility and Growth," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199248612.
    25. Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    26. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    27. Beck, Thorsten, 2002. "Financial development and international trade: Is there a link?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 107-131, June.
    28. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "Financial development and the instability of open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1077-1106, September.
    30. repec:fth:michin:458 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    32. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Why Some Firms Export," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(2), pages 561-569, May.
    33. Echeverry, Juan Carlos & Fergusson, Leopoldo & Steiner, Roberto & Aguilar, Camila, 2003. "'Dollar' debt in Colombian firms: are sinners punished during devaluations?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 417-449, December.
    34. Philippe Aghion & George-Marios Angeletos & Abhijit Banerjee & Kalina Manova, 2005. "Volatility and Growth: Credit Constraints and Productivity-Enhancing Investment," NBER Working Papers 11349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    36. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long‐run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December.
    37. Andrew Bernard & Joachim Wagner, 2001. "Export entry and exit by German firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 137(1), pages 105-123, March.
    38. Peter Pedroni, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity Tests In Cointegrated Panels," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 727-731, November.
    39. Deardorff, A.V., 2000. "Financial Crisis, Trade, and Fragmentation," Working Papers 458, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    40. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    41. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    42. Zihui Ma & Leonard Cheng, 2003. "The Effects of Financial Crises on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Martinez, Lorenza & Werner, Alejandro, 2002. "The exchange rate regime and the currency composition of corporate debt: the Mexican experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 315-334, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kohn, David & Leibovici, Fernando & Szkup, Michal, 2020. "Financial frictions and export dynamics in large devaluations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Berthou, Antoine, 2008. "An investigation on the effect of real exchange rate movements on OECD bilateral exports," Working Paper Series 920, European Central Bank.
    3. Mario Alberto Lagunes Perez & Hector Hugo Perez Villarreal, 2016. "Exchange Rate And Determinants Of Exports In Periods Of Financial Volatility In The North America Free Trade Agreement Zone,Tipo De Cambio Y Determinantes De Las Exportaciones En Periodos De Volatilid," Revista Internacional Administracion & Finanzas, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 9(2), pages 61-71.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou, 2009. "Financial Market Imperfections and the Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Exports," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 103-120, February.
    2. Nicolas Berman, 2009. "Financial Crises and International Trade: The Long Way to Recovery," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/23, European University Institute.
    3. Kin Tang & Hui Tan & Niaz Naseem, 2013. "The effect of foreign currency borrowing and financial development on exports: a dynamic panel analysis on Asia-Pacific countries," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 460-476.
    4. Berman, Nicolas & Héricourt, Jérôme, 2010. "Financial factors and the margins of trade: Evidence from cross-country firm-level data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 206-217, November.
    5. Kalina Manova, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 711-744.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    7. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "A corporate balance-sheet approach to currency crises," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 6-30, November.
    8. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2005. "Deuda empresarial denominada en dólares y depreciación: ¿mucho ruido y pocas nueces?," Research Department Publications 4412, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    9. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries," CID Working Papers 117, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    10. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2008. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 612-626, November.
    11. Ashis Kumar Pradhan & Gourishankar S Hiremath, 2020. "Do external commercial borrowings and financial development affect exports?," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1796269-179, January.
    12. Marcelin, Isaac & Mathur, Ike, 2016. "Financial sector development and dollarization in emerging economies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 20-32.
    13. Kohn, David & Leibovici, Fernando & Szkup, Michal, 2020. "Financial frictions and export dynamics in large devaluations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    14. Michael B. Devereux, 2001. "Financial Constraints and Exchange Rate Flexibility in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 152001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    15. Jeanne, Olivier, 2003. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Cheng, Gong, 2015. "Balance sheet effects, foreign reserves and public policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 146-165.
    17. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2010. "Challenging the popular wisdom. New estimates of the unobserved economy," Working Papers 184, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2010.
    18. Hale, Galina B. & Jones, Peter C. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2020. "Home currency issuance in international bond markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    19. Daniel Tomić Jurica Šimurina Luka Jovanov, 2020. "The Nexus between Economic Sentiment Indicator and Gross Domestic Product; a Panel Cointegration Analysis," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 23(1), pages 121-140, May.
    20. Kahia, Montassar & Ben Aïssa, Mohamed Safouane & Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2016. "Impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on economic growth: New evidence from the MENA Net Oil Exporting Countries (NOECs)," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 102-115.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00118834. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.