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The effects of total factor productivity and export shocks on a small open economy with unemployment

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  • Stefan F. Schubert

    (Piazza Università 1 - Piazza Università 1)

Abstract
The paper analyzes the dynamic effects of a supply side shock and a demand side shock, which hit an open economy with unemployment. The supply side shock is modeled as a reduction in total factor productivity, whereas the demand side shock is caused by a drop in exports. The model builds upon the small one-sector two-good open economy framework described in Turnovsky (2000, ch. 11.3). In contrast to this standard framework, in which Walrasian labor markets are assumed, search unemployment and wage bargaining are introduced, and unemployment results from time consuming and costly matching of vacancies with searching agents. Using a plausible calibration of the model, the dynamic adjustments of unemployment, output, and other economic key variables are analyzed. We find that a negative export shock primarily has effects on consumption and welfare, but not on unemployment and output, whereas the supply side shock leads to considerable responses of unemployment, output, consumption and welfare. If both shocks together hit the economy, the changes in consumption and welfare almost double.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan F. Schubert, 2011. "The effects of total factor productivity and export shocks on a small open economy with unemployment," Post-Print hal-00851861, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00851861
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2011.04.009
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    Cited by:

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    2. Wijesiri, Mahinda, 2016. "Weathering the storm: ownership structure and performance of microfinance institutions in the wake of the global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 238-247.
    3. Stefan F. Schubert, 2013. "Unemployment Dynamics in a Short-Run Two-Sector Model of a Tourism Exporting Small Open Economy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 19(5), pages 1049-1076, October.
    4. Claire GOAVEC & Jean-François HOARAU, 2015. "Vulnérabilité Économique Structurelle Et Dépendance Touristique : Quels Enseignements Pour Les Petites Économies Insulaires En Développement," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 42, pages 157-188.
    5. Schubert, Stefan F. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2018. "Growth and unemployment: Short-run and long-run tradeoffs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 172-189.
    6. Craighead, William D., 2014. "Monetary rules and sectoral unemployment in open economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 277-292.
    7. Claire Goavec & Jean-François Hoarau, 2015. "Structural economic vulnerability and tourism dependence: new assessment for small island developing economies [Vulnérabilité économique structurelle et dépendance touristique : quels enseignements," Post-Print hal-01454720, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    F41; F47; J64; Total factor productivity shock; Export shock; Search unemployment; Open economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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