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Ambiguity and the historical equity premium

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrice Collard

    (UNIBE - Universität Bern = University of Bern = Université de Berne)

  • Sujoy Mukerji

    (Department of Economics and University College - University of Oxford)

  • Kevin Sheppard

    (Department of Economics and Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance - University of Oxford)

  • Jean-Marc Tallon

    (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract
This paper assesses the quantitative impact of ambiguity on historically observed financial asset returns and growth rates. The single agent, in a dynamic exchange economy, treats the conditional uncertainty about the consumption and dividends next period as ambiguous. We calibrate the agent's ambiguity aversion to match only the first moment of the risk-free rate in data and measure the uncertainty each period on the actual, observed history of (U.S.) macroeconomic growth outcomes. Ambiguity aversion accentuates the conditional uncertainty endogenously in a dynamic way, depending on the history; e.g., it increases during recessions. We show the model implied time series of asset returns substantially match the first and second conditional moments of observed return dynamics. In particular, we find the time-series properties of our model generated equity premium, which may be regarded as an index measure of revealed uncertainty, relates closely to those of the macroeconomic uncertainty index recently developed in Jurado, Ludvigson, and Ng (2013).

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrice Collard & Sujoy Mukerji & Kevin Sheppard & Jean-Marc Tallon, 2016. "Ambiguity and the historical equity premium," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00594096, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-00594096
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ambiguity aversion; Asset pricing; Equity premium puzzle; Time-varying uncertainty; Uncertainty shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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