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Sports Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Herman O. Stekler

    (Department of Economics, The George Washington University)

Abstract
A great amount of effort is spent in forecasting the outcome of sporting events, but few papers have focused exclusively on the characteristics of sports forecasts. Rather, many papers have been written about the efficiency of sports betting markets. As it turns out, it is possible to derive considerable information about the forecasts and the forecasting process from the studies that tested the markets for economic efficiency. Moreover, the huge number of observations provided by betting markets makes it possible to obtain robust tests of various forecasting hypotheses. This paper is concerned with a number of forecasting topics in horse racing and several team sports. The first topic involves the type of forecast that is made: picking a winner or predicting whether a particular team beats the point spread. Different evaluation procedures will be examined and alternative forecasting methods (models, experts, and the market) will be compared. The paper also examines the evidence about the existence of biases in the forecasts and concludes with the applicability of these results to forecasting in general.

Suggested Citation

  • Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2007-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jan 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2007-001
    as

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    File URL: https://www2.gwu.edu/~forcpgm/2007-001.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael Cain & David Law & David Peel, 2000. "The Favourite‐Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football betting," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 47(1), pages 25-36, February.
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    3. Ruth N. Bolton & Randall G. Chapman, 2008. "Searching For Positive Returns At The Track: A Multinomial Logit Model For Handicapping Horse Races," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Donald B Hausch & Victor SY Lo & William T Ziemba (ed.), Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets, chapter 17, pages 151-171, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. James D. Dana & Michael M. Knetter, 1994. "Learning and Efficiency in a Gambling Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(10), pages 1317-1328, October.
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    11. Boulier, Bryan L. & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Predicting the outcomes of National Football League games," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 257-270.
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    14. Dixon, Mark J. & Pope, Peter F., 2004. "The value of statistical forecasts in the UK association football betting market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 697-711.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sports forecasting; gambling markets; prediction markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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