Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gla/glaewp/2021_12.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Anxiety, Expectations Stabilization and Intertemporal Markets: Theory, Evidence and Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Carbonero
  • Jeremy Davies
  • Ekkehard Ernst
  • Sayantan Ghosal
  • Leaza McSorley
Abstract
Anxiety is a negative emotion experienced today in response to future risk. We model how anxiety impacts on risky investment when expected future returns interact with multiple narratives and strategic uncertainty today. A novel anxiety index is constructed via a sentiment analysis of daily online articles in the Daily Mail, Reuters and Press Association; its plausibility is established by comparing it to the corresponding ONS measure over the Covid-19 pandemic. A SVAR analysis shows that anxiety impacts negatively on stock market volatility, a model prediction. We discuss the welfare implications of lighthouse policies focusing on Brexit and the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Carbonero & Jeremy Davies & Ekkehard Ernst & Sayantan Ghosal & Leaza McSorley, 2021. "Anxiety, Expectations Stabilization and Intertemporal Markets: Theory, Evidence and Policy," Working Papers 2021_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2021_12
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.gla.ac.uk/media/Media_799873_smxx.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John C. Harsanyi & Reinhard Selten, 1988. "A General Theory of Equilibrium Selection in Games," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262582384, April.
    2. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-597, June.
    3. Albert O. Hirschman & Michael Rothschild, 1973. "The Changing Tolerance for Income Inequality in the Course of Economic DevelopmentWith A Mathematical Appendix," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 87(4), pages 544-566.
    4. Akerlof, George A. & Snower, Dennis J., 2016. "Bread and bullets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 126(PB), pages 58-71.
    5. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    6. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2001. "Psychological Expected Utility Theory and Anticipatory Feelings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 55-79.
    7. Hirschman, Albert O., 1973. "The changing tolerance for income inequality in the course of economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 1(12), pages 29-36, December.
    8. Young, H Peyton, 1993. "The Evolution of Conventions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 57-84, January.
    9. Paul T E Cusack, 2020. "Anxiety Disorders," Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research, Biomedical Research Network+, LLC, vol. 31(3), pages 24255-24260, October.
    10. Anmol Bhandari & Jaroslav Borovicka & Paul Ho, 2019. "Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models," Working Paper 19-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    11. Paul Grauwe, 2011. "Animal spirits and monetary policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 423-457, June.
    12. Robert J. Shiller, 2017. "Narrative Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 967-1004, April.
    13. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    14. International Labour Organisation ILO, 2015. "World Employment and Social Outlook - Trends 2015," Working Papers id:6418, eSocialSciences.
    15. Holmes, Douglas R., 2019. "Markets are a function of language: Notes on a narrative economics," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-18, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
    17. Andresa Lagerborg & Evi Pappa & Morten O Ravn, 2023. "Sentimental Business Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(3), pages 1358-1393.
    18. Dongho Song & Jenny Tang, 2023. "News-Driven Uncertainty Fluctuations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 968-982, July.
    19. Shiller, Robert J., 2019. "Narratives about technology-induced job degradation then and now," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 477-488.
    20. Costas Azariadis & Roger Guesnerie, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(5), pages 725-737.
    21. Robert J. Shiller, 2019. "Narratives about Technology-Induced Job Degradations Then and Now," NBER Working Papers 25536, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Ernst, Ekkehard & Merola, Rossana., 2018. "Central bank communication a quantitative assessment," ILO Working Papers 995008793102676, International Labour Organization.
    23. Andrew Haldane & Michael McMahon, 2018. "Central Bank Communications and the General Public," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 578-583, May.
    24. Holmes, Douglas R., 2013. "Economy of Words," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226087597, January.
    25. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
    26. Robert J. Shiller, 2019. "Narratives About Technology-Induced Job Degradation Then and Now," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2168, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    27. H. Peyton Young, 1998. "Conventional Contracts," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(4), pages 773-792.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    2. Balatsky, E., 2021. "Institutional reforms and human capital," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 103-124.
    3. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    4. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
    5. Fehr, Dietmar & Heinemann, Frank & Llorente-Saguer, Aniol, 2019. "The power of sunspots: An experimental analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 123-136.
    6. Vyacheslav V. Volchik & Elena V. Maslyukova & Sophia A. Panteeva, 2022. "Innovation indicators in the context of narrative economics," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 22(4), pages 24-44, January.
    7. Antonio Cabrales & Michalis Drouvelis & Zeynep Gurguy & Indrajit Ray, 2017. "Transparency is Overrated: Communicating in a Coordination Game with Private Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 6781, CESifo.
    8. Munday, Tim & Brookes, James, 2021. "Mark my words: the transmission of central bank communication to the general public via the print media," Bank of England working papers 944, Bank of England.
    9. Roland Bénabou & Jean Tirole, 2006. "Belief in a Just World and Redistributive Politics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 699-746.
    10. Arnaud Z. Dragicevic, 2019. "Market Coordination Under Non-Equilibrium Dynamics," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 697-715, September.
    11. Oyama, Daisuke & Tercieux, Olivier, 2009. "Iterated potential and robustness of equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1726-1769, July.
    12. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
    13. Jinan Zeidan, 2015. "Are Comparisons Luxuries? Subjective Poverty and Positional Concerns in Indonesia," AMSE Working Papers 1505, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    14. Stavros A. Drakopoulos, 2020. "Pay Level Comparisons in Job Satisfaction Research and Mainstream Economic Methodology," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 825-842, March.
    15. Herzog, Bodo, 2019. "Optimal policy under uncertainty and rational inattention," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 444-449.
    16. H. Peyton Young, 2007. "Social Norms," Economics Series Working Papers 307, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Todd Keister, 2009. "Expectations And Contagion In Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 991-1012, August.
    18. Giulia Piccillo & Poramapa Poonpakdee, 2023. "Ambiguous Business Cycles, Recessions and Uncertainty: A Quantitative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 10646, CESifo.
    19. Kets, Willemien & Kager, Wouter & Sandroni, Alvaro, 2022. "The value of a coordination game," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    20. Bluwstein, Kristina & Yung, Julieta, 2019. "Back to the real economy: the effects of risk perception shocks on the term premium and bank lending," Bank of England working papers 806, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    anxiety; investment; uncertainty; strategy; narratives; sentiment; lighthouse; policy; coronacrisis; Brexit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2021_12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Business School Research Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dpglauk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.