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The potential cost of a failed Doha Round

Author

Listed:
  • Bouet, Antoine
  • Laborde, David
Abstract
"In times of economic turmoil, countries might decide to increase current tariff rates to protect domestic industries or raise revenues in order to finance domestic programs. Using the highest applied or bound rate imposed by countries from 1995 to 2008 as an indicator, this study presents several scenarios regarding the economic costs of a failed Doha Round and a subsequent rush into protectionism. For example, in a scenario where the applied tariffs of major economies would go all the way up to currently bound tariff rates, world trade would decrease by 7.7 percent. In a more modest scenario where countries would raise tariffs to maximum rates applied during the past 13 years, world trade would decrease by 3.2 percent. These increases in duties would reduce world welfare by US$353 billion under the first scenario, and by US$134 billion under the more modest scenario. While such an increase in duties would particularly impact agricultural exports (–6.9 percent), especially in developing countries (–11.5 percent), exports of industrial goods could also face a substantial reduction: 2 percent in developed countries and 4.8 percent in developing countries. This study concludes there would be a potential loss of US$1,064 billion in world trade if world leaders were to fail to conclude the Doha Development Round of trade negotiations in the next few weeks and if countries were to implement subsequently protectionist policies, as occurred after the end of the Uruguay Round. The failure of the negotiations would prevent a US$336 billion increase in world trade that would have come from a reduction in tariffs and domestic support, while a worldwide resort to protectionism would contract world trade by US$728 billion." from text

Suggested Citation

  • Bouet, Antoine & Laborde, David, 2008. "The potential cost of a failed Doha Round," Issue briefs 56, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:issbrf:56
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2009. "From overhang to hangover: consequences of protectionist responses to the global crisis for low-income countries," MPRA Paper 16100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sebastian Saez, 2009. "Managing Trade Policy During the Economic Crisis," World Bank Publications - Reports 11113, The World Bank Group.
    3. Patrick Messerlin, 2010. "The Doha Round," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00972939, HAL.
    4. Messerlin, Patrick & van der Marel, Erik, 2009. ""Leading with services": the dynamics of transatlantic negotiations in services," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 38995, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Popa, Diana, 2011. "Runda Doha: început fără sfârşit [Doha Round: the endless beginning]," MPRA Paper 28764, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2011.
    6. United Nations ESCAP (ed.), 2011. "Asia-Pacific Trade and Investment Report 2011: Post-crisis trade and investment opportunities," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), number aptir2596, April.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h2q4n8g45 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Métivier, Jeanne & Bacchetta, Marc & Bekkers, Eddy & Koopman, Robert, 2023. "International trade cooperation’s impact on the world economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 713-744.
    9. Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David, 2017. "Why is the Doha Development agenda failing? And what can be done? A computable general equilibrium-game theoretical approach :," IFPRI book chapters, in: Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David (ed.), Agriculture, development, and the global trading system: 2000– 2015, chapter 3, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Wang, Qian, 2010. "Sources of Economic Fluctuations in East Asia from 1980 to 2006—Analysis Based on Panel VAR," Conference papers 331922, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Patrick A. Messerlin, 2011. "World trade regime, World Trade Organization and large-schale crises," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, in: Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia, chapter 2, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    12. Yvan Decreux & Lionel Fontagné, 2011. "Economic Impact of Potential Outcome of the DDA," Working Papers 2011-23, CEPII research center.
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h2q4n8g45 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Sulser, T. B., 2009. "Green and blue water accounting in the Limpopo and Nile basins: implications for food and agricultural policy," IWMI Working Papers H042476, International Water Management Institute.
    15. Métivier, Jeanne & Bacchetta, Marc & Bekkers, Eddy & Koopman, Robert Bernard, 2023. "International trade cooperation's impact on the world economy," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2023-02, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    16. Patrick Messerlin, 2009. "The world trade regime, the WTO and large scale crises: Perspectives after the Pittsburg G20 Summit," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01053280, HAL.
    17. Patrick Messerlin, 2009. "The world trade regime, the WTO and large scale crises: Perspectives after the Pittsburg G20 Summit," Post-Print hal-01053280, HAL.
    18. Diana Popa, 2012. "The Collapse of the Doha Round and a Possible Completion of Negotiations," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(43), pages 165-188, March.
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    20. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h2q4n8g45 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Wolfe, Robert, 2010. "Endogenous Learning and Consensual Understanding in Multilateral Negotiations: Arguing and Bargaining in the WTO," Working Papers 90885, Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy Research Network.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural policies; WTO Doha round; International trade; exports; tariffs; Protectionism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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